Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FNUS73 KDLH 251947
FWSDLH

Spot Forecast for Pike Bay Burn...MN DNR Forestry - Cass Lake
National Weather Service Duluth MN
247 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on June 26.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.

.DISCUSSION...

Fairly quiet weather expected Wednesday with partly sunny skies
and light northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Some gusts up to 15mph
possible. No precipitation is expected. There should be good
mixing and smoke dispersal through the day and a minimum relative
humidity around 55 percent. Another fairly quiet day expected Thursday.


.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......4200 ft AGL increasing to 5000 ft AGL late in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (31700-45900 knot-ft) increasing to good
                    (43000-51700 knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  PC  PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............62  64  65  66  68  68  68  68
RH..............81  73  70  65  59  59  57  57
20 FT wind dir..NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..6   6   7   7   7   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.14  14  14  14  14  14  14  14
Mix hgt (kft)...2.4 2.7 3.2 4.2 4.7 4.7 5.0 4.8
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.15  15  14  13  13  12  12  10
Haines index....3   3   3   2   2   2   2   2
SDspl kt-ft/100032  35  38  46  52  47  50  43

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 51.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......4200 ft AGL decreasing to 1600 ft AGL early in
                    the evening.
Transport winds.....Northwest 6 to 10 mph shifting to the east 2 to
                    5 mph after 3 am.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (29800-37800 knot-ft) decreasing
                    to poor (300-10900 knot-ft) early in the
                    evening.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......PCLDY  MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............69     66     59     55     53     52
RH..............55     61     78     86     93     96
20 ft wind......N 5    N 4    N 2    NW 1   W 1    SE 1
20 ft wind gust.13     9      5      3      3      2
Mix hgt (ft)....4200   1600   400    400    400    300
Transport wind..NW 10  NW 8   NW 7   NW 7   N 6    E 3
Haines index....2      2      2      2      2      2
SDspl kt-ft/100038     11     3      2      2      1

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 5 to 6 mph in the
                    late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......1400 ft AGL increasing to 4500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 2 to 10 mph shifting to the south 12
                    to 14 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (200-10100 knot-ft) increasing to fair to
                    good (22000-32600 knot-ft) late in the morning,
                    then increasing to good (39900-54500 knot-ft)
                    late in the morning decreasing to fair (25700
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.03 inches.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY  MCLDY  MCLDY
Weather cov.....                            S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      10     10     10     20     20
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............52     58     65     69     70     70
RH..............96     80     63     55     55     57
20 ft wind......SE 2   SE 3   S 4    S 5    S 5    S 5
20 ft wind gust.3      5      9      12     14     14
Mix hgt (ft)....100    1400   3300   4400   4200   3000
Transport wind..SE 2   SE 8   SE 12  S 14   S 13   S 12
Haines index....2      3      3      3      3      3
SDspl kt-ft/10000      10     33     53     47     30

$$
Forecaster...Ketzel
Requested by...David Hoefer
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2416678.0/DLH
.DELDT 06/25/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL dave.hoefer@state.mn.us