Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
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525 FXUS63 KDMX 230455 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1155 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - A brief reprieve from showers and thunderstorms tonight and tomorrow afternoon. - Thunderstorm chances return Thursday evening through Friday evening. - Another brief dry period on Saturday, before chances of showers and thunderstorms through the holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 207 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 >> Brief quiet period Showers and thunderstorms from earlier today have moved out of the area. An area of high pressure is settling over north central Missouri, as a low amplitude upper level ridge moves across central Iowa. Skies will remain mostly clear tonight through tomorrow afternoon. Winds become southerly tonight, and remain generally calm, around 5 to 10 miles per hour. Winds will again pick up tomorrow afternoon, generally between 10 to 15 miles per hour, with a few gusts up to 20 miles per hour ahead of an approaching low pressure system moving across South Dakota. >> Another round of thunderstorms Thursday and Friday As the low pressure system approaches across South Dakota, a surge of moisture will move across central Iowa, bringing surface dew points back into the mid to upper 50s. A cold front sweeps across Nebraska, generating a line of thunderstorms across central and eastern Nebraska Thursday afternoon. This line of thunderstorms will move into Iowa in the evening hours. Current high resolution guidance has a smaller batch of thunderstorms developing ahead of the main line. Though the greater severe weather threat appears to be to the east, over most of Nebraska, the Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) across the western half of Iowa, with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) across the western most counties in Iowa. The primary concern for central Iowa at this time appears to be strong wind gusts and hail with some of the stronger storms. Storms will continue across the region through Friday morning. Behind the main line, model guidance suggests the possibility for some redevelopment on Friday afternoon, so will keep the mention for thunder in the forecast. >> Wet Holiday Weekend As storms exit the region on Friday evening, another brief period of high pressure settles in, giving a slight break from precipitation. A low pressure system ejects off the Rocky Mountains and quickly traverses the Plains on Saturday. Most of the morning and afternoon on Saturday should be relatively dry, however, clouds will begin progressively moving in from the west. As the low pressure system tracks across Kansas and northern Missouri, another batch of showers and thunderstorms moves into the area Saturday night. The low is expected to stall a bit in speed, keeping rain chances around Sunday through Monday afternoon. At this time, the threat for severe weather remains uncertain. The Storm Prediction Center highlights potential for severe thunderstorms across Missouri, so will need to keep an eye on how the severe weather outlook changes. Confidence should increase as models come into better consistency with the timing of the upper level flow and track of the surface low over the next few runs. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1153 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024 Light winds overnight will be breezy at times from the south from late morning and into the afternoon Thursday. Some mid level clouds in the 7-8kft range overnight but VFR through much of the period. Only possible exception is late Thursday evening when a few storms may enter western Iowa and impact KFOD. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Richie AVIATION...Donavon