Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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FXUS63 KDMX 061152

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
652 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion...

.DISCUSSION.../Today through Monday/
Issued at 428 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

Key Messages:

-Thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall possible northeast
 today, southwest tomorrow.
-Cool temperatures, dry air for the second half of the work week.
-Next chance of rain Saturday.

A large upper level ridging pattern continues to be the dominating
the weather pattern with broad anticyclonic flow found in the
Midwest. For today, moisture will advect into the region by
traveling along the ridge aloft. A back door cold front will edge
its way into the state from the northeast and become the primary
forcing mechanism for precipitation today. There will be enough
instability along the boundary to prompt thunderstorms, but the
lack of shear and kinematics will keep these unorganized. PWATs in
the column will be around 1.5" near the front and paired with the
stagnant flow in the column, heavy rain will be possible in
localized areas from thunderstorms. The 00z HREF illustrates this
well with localized splotches of 2-3 inches. Tuesday night into
Wednesday have trended more dry in the CWA due to the continued
push of dry air. Consequently, the thunderstorms that do form in
the peak daytime hours Wednesday will be more in a narrow
corridor. Uncertainty remains in timing and moisture content so
left some mention of thunderstorms for Des Moines and cities
nearby, but there is a notable trend in guidance of delaying
precipitation until the front is in southwest Iowa.

Beyond Wednesday, a surface high will descend further into the
region for the second half of the week. Northerly flow and
subsidence will usher in more dry air, cool temperatures, and no
precipitation. For the weekend, energy will eject from the closed
low in the eastern CONUS. Another surface high from southern
Canada will run into the high in the Midwest churn moisture into
the region for additional rain and storm chances Saturday. Sunday
and Monday will then be dry with high temperatures falling back
into the 70s.


.AVIATION.../For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning/
Issued at 649 AM CDT Tue Jun 6 2023

VFR cigs expected to prevail with showers and low confidence
thunderstorms possible for KMCW and KALO within the next 3 hours.
Localized vsby restrictions possible before 18z due to fog and/or
smoke. More thunderstorms expected for KMCW, KALO, and KFOD after
19z with a general motion southwest. Low confidence for KDSM and
KOTM this afternoon so left out of TAF until 06z.




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