Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KDMX 130346

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1046 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

.DISCUSSION.../Tonight through Saturday/
Issued at 236 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

Forecast highlights:
-Warm and less humid conditions into next week
-No significant precipitation chances in the extended

Tonight into Monday...Surface high pressure remains in control of
the weather pattern with generally light flow and low humidity.
The mixing today should diminish wind gusts by around sunset as
decoupling is anticipated. With the high to be directly over
central and southern Iowa on Sunday, there is a potential for
some weak mixing in the afternoon across northern Iowa with a few
gusts in the upper teens tomorrow. The surface high pressure
splits from a very weak clipper system on Monday. GFS has some
very light QPF while the NAM/ECMWF remain dry and kept forecast
dry attm due to the lack of any significant moisture source.

Tuesday to Friday...very weak north to northeast flow on Tuesday
should provide a pleasant day with dew points remaining in the 40s
and 50s during the afternoon. Some return flow looks likely by
Wednesday providing slightly warmer and humid conditions, but not
overly unbearable. The hottest day is shaping up to be Thursday
with a bit stronger southerly flow ahead of an upper trough
progged to push through the region late Thursday into Friday.
ECMWF is nearly all dry and with the large upper ridge holding its
ground over the Southwest to southern MS Valley and cutting off
any major moisture source from the Gulf, difficult to have much
confidence in the GFS wetter solution attm. High pressure builds
back into the region at the surface Friday into the next weekend.


.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night/
Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sat Jun 12 2021

No changes to forecast. High pressure drifts south of area Sunday
with mixing most areas during day. Given dry conditions and
potential for deeper boundary layer growth, keeping slightly
higher mixed winds over the region; especially north. Winds
diminish around 00z. /rev




AVIATION...REV is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.