Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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282 FXUS63 KDTX 102241 AFDDTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 641 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry conditions for the first half of the week. - Cool today with a warming trend into mid-week. - Next chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday. && .AVIATION... Favorable aviation conditions will prevail through the TAF period. This will be the result of dry air and light winds associated with high pressure the will track across the area over the next 24 hours. For DTW/D21 Convection...Thunderstorms are not expected through the TAF period. DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES... * None. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 353 PM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 DISCUSSION... Canadian surface high will settle southward and center itself over the Great Lakes by Tuesday morning. Cool northerly flow will continue, while weakening, through the overnight while upper level ridge axis approaches Lake MI. Water vapor imagery shows plenty of small vorticities embedded in the positively tilted long wave trough with another set to drop through the region tonight, but a lack of moisture which led to afternoon vorts not amounting to even cloud cover today, will again pass without cause. Low temperatures will fall tonight into the low-mid 40s as clear skies and calming winds occur under the current cold dome with 850mb temps around 6C. Upper level ridge axis slides east through the day Tuesday, allowing for steady moderation of the cool airmass. Highs should rebound back into the low 70s with further warming to come mid week. An elevated warm front, moisture surge will occur Tuesday night behind a mid level trough. The trough will fold the thermal ridge over into the Great Lakes with the zonal, westerly flow ushering in a much warmer airmass from the Plains. 850mb temps will reach 15-16C Wednesday and Thursday as PWATs jump from a half inch Tuesday to an inch on Wednesday and near 1.5 inches Thursday. Should be mentioned the warm frontal moisture surge Tuesday night will support an increased cloud field, but although the CAMs want to generate some high based showers with the weakening boundary, subsidence and dry air in advance of the feature will make the environment unsupportive to continue any upstream convection into the region. Late Thursday into the overnight will be the next time we could see showers and thunderstorms as a cold front approaches. Pattern is still zonal but a strong wave will start to buckle it over the Midwest when a secondary jet max enters the trough causing it to dig southward more. The parent wave to the north will carry higher coverage of precipitation, but the front will enter a region that may build around 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE with little shear around 20 knots, which has been trending down. The story for the long term will be the continued heat as large ridge will build across the central/eastern conus. The ECMWF offers up 850mb temps around 20C well into next week. MARINE... Anticyclonic northerly flow maintains an on-shore component with favorable trajectory along the long axis of Lake Huron. This promotes the continuation of elevated wave action for the southern nearshore zones, therefore, will maintain the southern breakout for the Small Craft Advisory until late evening. The pressure gradient relaxes with time allowing speeds to trend AOB 10 knots tonight while peak afternoon gusts near 20 knots drop-off by dusk. High pressure builds southeast into the Ohio Valley Tuesday promoting weak flow across the central Great Lakes. The ridge of high pressure will migrate eastward Wednesday offering a return-flow setup veering winds southerly as the gradient slowly becomes more established into the second half of the week. A low pressure system is projected arrives late Thursday into Friday which could support renewed Small Craft Advisory conditions with opportunities for showers and thunderstorms. && .DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LHZ441>443. Lake St Clair...None. Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None. && $$ AVIATION.....SC DISCUSSION...DRK MARINE.......KGK You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online at www.weather.gov/detroit.