Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FNUS73 KDTX 010812
FWSDTX

Spot Forecast for Tobico Trail Loop...MIDNR
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
412 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on June 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Dry weather expected today with light winds generally
out of the south. Min RH values today range between 30 and 40
percent. Moisture advection expected to begin late this afternoon
brings dewpoints from the 40s toward 60 degrees by this evening with
showers moving in tonight. Conditions to then dry out for
Sunday as high pressure fills in through Monday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers late in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........36 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 8 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......4700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 14 to 17 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal....Excellent (MAX...617).

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........64  67  67  69  72  77  80
WEATHER COV.....                        SCH
WEATHER TYPE....                        RW
TEMP............68  71  73  74  75  74  75
RH..............48  41  39  36  36  38  39
EYE LVL WND DIR.S   S   S   S   S   S   S
EYE LVL WND SPD.8   10  10  10  10  10  10
EYE LVL WND GST.14  14  14  16  16  14  14
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.3 3.0 4.0 4.3 4.7 4.1 2.5
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SMOKE DISPER....297 424 555 638 710 575 298

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Rain showers.
Min temperature.....Around 58.
Max humidity........94 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 6 to 8 mph...becoming northeast
                    around 5 mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 5 OR low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal....Poor (MIN...28).

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........83     85     89     91     90     90
WEATHER COV.....S CHC  LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............74     69     63     61     60     59
RH..............41     57     73     84     91     92
EYE LVL WND DIR.S      S      SE     S      SW     NE
EYE LVL WND SPD.8      6      6      6      6      5
EYE LVL WND GST.13     11     13     12     11     10
MIX HGT (KFT)...1400   500    500    500    500    500
HAINES INDEX....5      4      4      4      3      3
SMOKE DISPER....143    42     47     38     35     40

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent)becoming mostly
                    sunny (30-40 percent). Chance of rain showers
                    early in the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........61 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northeast winds 5 to 6 mph...becoming southeast
                    around 6 mph early in the morning,
                    then becoming east in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 10 mph...becoming east in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal....Poor (MAX...75).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
SKY (%).........86        79        63        52
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR    NONE      NONE      NONE
TEMP............59        61        65        68
RH..............93        87        76        66
EYE LEVEL WIND..NE 5      SE 6      E 6       E 6
EYE LEVEL WIND..10        10        10        11
MIX HGT (FT)....500       500       900       1100
HAINES INDEX....3         3         3         3
SMOKE DISPER....37        40        60        84

$$
Forecaster...Varcie
Requested by...Nate Stearns
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2415428.0/DTX
.DELDT 06/01/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL stearnsn@michigan.gov