430
FXUS63 KDVN 190913
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
413 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms today and not as hot

- SPC has removed the Marginal Risk for severe storms for today

- Hotter again Friday and Saturday

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Today: Cold front just to the west of the forecast area was
producing a band of showers and thunderstorms from southwest IA
to northeast IA early this morning. This front will continue to
slowly move southeast across the entire forecast area as the day
progresses. This front getting a nudge to the southeast as low
pressure tracks from Lake Superior to James Bay. Scattered to
clusters of showers and storms should occur today, with the
higher chances 50-70 percent in our northwest, with lesser pops
to the southeast. This scenario will also continue into this
evening as the front begins stalling in far northern MO.

Forecast soundings indicate that shear and instability will be
even less than what was given me yesterday. As a result, SPC has
removed our area from the Marginal Risk that was in place.
However, any stronger storm could still produce gusty winds to
40 mph and heavy downpours with PWAT`s of 1.60 inches and storms
moving northeast at 25 mph.

There will be a nice temperature gradient across our area with
highs in the upper 70s at Independence, IA to 92 at Macomb, IL.

Tonight: The main area of scattered showers and storms will
remain roughly across our northwest half, as the front begins
returning northward as a warm front. Lows will range from the
mid 60s nw to the lower 70s se.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Thursday through Friday: With the warm front lifting north of
the forecast area, the main concentration of thunderstorms and
heavy rainfall will once again be in southern/central MN and WI.
(This additional rain will raise concerns for flooding later
this month especially on the Mississippi River as the water
flows downstream into our area. Stay tuned to updated river
forecasts).

As a result of the front well to our north, our temperatures
will turn hotter again with much of the area having highs in
the lower 90s. The NBM temperatures have shown a warm bias
lately and I have lowered these readings a couple of degrees.

Little change in forecast reasoning from yesterday:

This weekend: Global models similar in developing a stronger
trough and surface low tracking from the northern Plains to the
northern Great Lakes region. This sweeps a cold front across our
forecast area Saturday afternoon and night, which may offer the
potential for strong to severe storms. This is a pattern change
as this deepening trough into the eastern United States breaks
down the persistent heat dome. Highs in the lower to mid 90s on
Saturday and then in the 80s on Sunday.

Early next week: Another pattern change to a heat dome building
in the southern Plains with hot weather returning to our area
with highs again in the lower 90s. Patterm recognition suggests
MCS`s riding the edge of the heat dome will impact near or
across the forecast area. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 103 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

A cold front will slowly push across the area today and then
stalling in far northern MO, then returning northward by
Thursday. Scattered thunderstorms are expected in the vicinity
of the front. Gusty winds and heavy downpours will accompany any
stronger storm. Winds will become northwest then northeast as
the front passes.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Haase