267
ACUS01 KWNS 261621
SWODY1
SPC AC 261619

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Valid 261630Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC...ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARK
PLATEAU INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE
HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Clusters of thunderstorms accompanied by potentially damaging wind
gusts are possible today into tonight from the Ohio Valley into
northern Mid Atlantic, across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower
Mississippi Valley, and to the lee of the Front Range and Sangre de
Cristo Mountains.

...NY/PA into Mid Atlantic and southern New England...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving trough over WI.
This feature will track across the Great Lakes region today and into
the northeast states tonight.  Ahead of the system, strong heating
is occurring from parts of NY/PA eastward into the Mid Atlantic
region and southern New England.  A diffuse surface boundary extends
from northern PA to coastal New England, with temperatures likely to
rise into the 80s/90s to the south.  This will result in an
environment of steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for
scattered afternoon thunderstorms.  Current indications are that
storms will form over OH/western PA by early afternoon and spread
eastward through the day.  Damaging winds appear to be the main
concern.  Storms may track across southern New England and to the
NJ/DE/MD coast during the evening with a continued severe threat.

...High Plains...
A plume of considerable mid-level moisture is present today over the
central Rockies.  This will lead to scattered thunderstorms over the
higher terrain by mid afternoon, spreading eastward into the
adjacent plains.  Easterly low-level winds over the plains will
maintain 40s/50s dewpoints and pose a risk of a few severe storms
capable of hail and gusty/damaging winds this evening.

...ArklaTex into TN...
A weakening linear MCS currently extends from northeast TX into
northeast AR.  The air mass ahead of this activity is very
moist/unstable, with dewpoints in the mid 70s and afternoon MLCAPE
values likely 2000-2500 J/kg.  Winds aloft are rather weak, but will
maintain ongoing SLGT area in case these storms rejuvenate.

..Hart/Halbert/Weinman.. 06/26/2024

$$