528
ACUS01 KWNS 190053
SWODY1
SPC AC 190052

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms remain possible this evening from
parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley southwestward into the
central/southern High Plains. Large hail and severe/damaging winds
should be the main threats, but a low risk for a tornado persists
across southwest Kansas.

...01z Update...

A pronounced upper trough is evident in water-vapor imagery over the
northern High Plains early this evening. This feature will eject
across the Dakotas, through the upper Red River Valley later
tonight, as a 500mb speed max translates across northwest MN into
ON. While troughing lags across the southwestern US, any
disturbances that would affect the central/southern High Plains are
weak, and not particularly evident in satellite imagery.

Surface cold front is currently the primary focus, and delineation,
for robust convection. This boundary stretches from the upper Great
Lakes southwest across southeast NE into the OK Panhandle. Strongest
boundary-layer heating is located along the southern extent of this
wind shift, and 00z sounding from DDC exhibits very steep lapse
rates with MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Some capping is evident
near 2km AGL, but this is likely negligible near the front where
surface temperatures are in the mid 90s. A tornado or two could be
noted with storms early this evening before boundary layer cools
further. Otherwise, the strongest convection may continue to pose
some risk for hail/wind for the next several hours. While
large-scale forcing is a bit stronger across the upper MS Valley,
storm mode is primarily larger clusters with one MCS noted across
the Lake Superior region and a secondary MCS advancing east across
IA. Locally strong winds and perhaps some hail may be observed with
this activity.

..Darrow.. 06/19/2024

$$