020
ACUS01 KWNS 231236
SWODY1
SPC AC 231235

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS
TO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this
afternoon into the early evening from the Ozarks into parts of the
Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys.

...Ozarks into TN/OH Valleys and southern Appalachians...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a digging trough over eastern
MT with it forecast to move into the Dakotas this afternoon.  A
positive-tilt mid-level trough over the central Plains will move
east and deamplify over the MS Valley overnight. This evolution is
expected to aid weak surface wave/low development along the synoptic
front over the Ozarks before moving to the IL/IN border by early
Tuesday morning.  Ongoing showers/thunderstorms over southeast MO
will continue east into the lower OH Valley this morning and temper
destabilization through at least midday.  In its wake, models
indicate MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg developing from AR into
western KY/TN, coincident with modest 0-6km bulk shear.  The surface
boundary will serve as the focus for scattered convection later
today with some of the stronger storms potentially capable of a
localized severe threat.  This activity is expected to diminish
during the evening.

Farther east, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably
develop near the ridge tops of the southern Appalachians and
adjacent parts of the Carolinas Piedmont this afternoon.  Moist low
levels coupled with heating will result in around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE.
Some modest multicell organization may occur due to adequately
strong upper-level westerly flow.  However, weak flow in the lowest
5 km and modest lapse rates will probably temper the overall
potential for localized strong gusts (40-55 mph).

..Smith/Broyles.. 09/23/2024

$$