Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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085 ACUS01 KWNS 221629 SWODY1 SPC AC 221627 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from southwest/west Texas to western Kentucky. ...West Texas to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley... Within a split flow regime, a southern-stream shortwave trough will continue generally eastward while tending to weaken over the south-central High Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain common near an east/southeastward-moving cold front that extends from Lake Michigan southwestward across the middle Mississippi Valley, with convection also occurring along/behind the south/southeastward-moving portion of the front that extends from the Ozarks across Oklahoma toward west/southwest Texas. Outflows and cloud cover extending into the pre-frontal warm sector will be factors, but somewhat stronger destabilization (possibly 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) may occur by peak heating in areas such as the Texas Low Rolling Plains/Permian Basin, and potentially parts of the Ozarks. Moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will largely parallel the frontal zone, with near/pre-frontal effective shear limited to 20-30 kt, with an exception being the elevated convection from west/northwest Texas into Oklahoma where some stronger cores could produce hail in the post-frontal environment. Where storms intensify near the front this afternoon, strong to locally damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph) and some hail (up to around 1 inch in diameter) will be possible through the early part of the evening. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/22/2024 $$