Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
326 FNUS22 KWNS 131926 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z Isolated dry thunderstorm highlights have been added to portions of Mogollon Rim and surrounding areas in central and northern Arizona for tomorrow (Friday). Here, isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected to initiate in the wake of earlier showers by afternoon, just before the mid-level trough and associated upper-level support drifts away from the region. While thunderstorms will be moving slowly overall, they may pass over fuel beds that have recently become critically receptive to wildfire spread, necessitating the introduction of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights. Otherwise the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 06/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A southern-stream midlevel trough, accompanied by moderate south-southwesterly flow aloft, will advance east-northeastward across the Southwest during the day. At the same time, a weak surface low south of south-central NM will promote modestly breezy westerly surface winds across southeastern AZ and southwestern NM. Given a deep/dry boundary layer across the area (single-digit RH), elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. The primary limiting factor for the addition of a Critical area is marginal surface winds (15-20 mph), though if surface winds trend upward, a Critical area could be warranted in future outlooks. Farther north, strong deep-layer westerly flow in the base of a midlevel trough will overspread the Northwest. The associated downslope flow across the Cascades and Sierra will favor locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of northwestern NV and eastern WA/northeastern OR. As a result, elevated conditions are expected for both areas, with locally critical conditions possible in northwestern NV -- where 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds are expected. On the backside of the southern-stream midlevel trough, low/midlevel offshore flow will gradually strengthen across southern CA. As a result, locally breezy/gusty northerly surface winds will likely overlap low RH across portions of southern CA during the overnight hours, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible where fuels are receptive to fire spread. An Elevated area was considered for portions of the area, though the threat appears too localized for such highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$