747
ACUS02 KWNS 250554
SWODY2
SPC AC 250552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO THE SOUTHERN SC COASTAL VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern
Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone
tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central
Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and parts of the Midlands
and Low Country of South Carolina.

...FL/GA/SC/southeast NC...

Latest forecast track guidance from the National Hurricane Center
has Helene making landfall in the vicinity of the Florida Big Bend
Thursday evening. As the storm tracks northward across the eastern
Gulf of Mexico, low and mid level flow fields will increase from
central FL into southeast GA and coastal SC during the day. Forecast
soundings from most forecast guidance show very large, favorably
curved low-level hodographs for rotating supercells within
convective bands well east/northeast of the center of Helene.
Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid 70s F,
resulting in greater than 125 J/kg 0-3 km MLCAPE from north FL into
southeast GA and southern coastal SC. Furthermore, looking at
historical tropical cyclone tornado data, adjusting for the expected
track/storm motion of Helene and even distance from the center,
previous cyclone analogs have produced several tornadoes within the
favored northeast quadrant. Given a consistent, favorable signal
across ensemble, deterministic, CAMs and calibrated guidance, an
Enhanced risk (level 3 of 5) has been included, driven by a 10
percent tornado probability, across southeast GA into southern
coastal SC.

..Leitman.. 09/25/2024

$$