326
ACUS02 KWNS 160545
SWODY2
SPC AC 160543

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible Monday over much
of the northern Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
On Monday, strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the Great
Basin into the northern Plains and upper MS Valley, with an early
lead wave over MN and the primary trough over the Pacific Northwest.
Height rises will occur over much of the northern Plains during the
day, before cooling aloft spreads east across the northern Rockies
and High Plains late. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain over the
East.

At the surface, low pressure will form over WY and CO, with a warm
front from NE into southern MN and northern WI by 00Z. South of this
front, mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will be common. Overnight, a
cold front will push east across the Dakotas and toward central NE,
as warming continues north across the upper MS Valley. The surface
low will translate northeast from CO toward ND by 12Z Tue.

...Northern Plains and upper MS Valley...
Early day storms and rain are expected from eastern SD across MN and
into northern WI and upper MI, with a gradual decrease in coverage
throughout the day. This activity will be well north of the warm
front, and rain cooled air could reinforce the boundary for much of
the day.

By late afternoon, an unstable air mass along and south of this
front may lead to renewed development, and a few storms could
produce gusty winds or marginal hail. Additional storms are likely
down the dryline into southwest NE into western KS where low-level
lapse rates will be steep. Locally large hail or strong winds will
be possible.

During the evening and overnight, a greater threat of strong to
severe storms may materialize as the warm front surges north along
with southerly 850 mb winds increasing to 60 kt over a broad area.
In addition the low-level moisture flux, the surging cold front will
add lift, with the end result areas of storms capable of hail and
locally damaging gusts. A greater severe risk than forecast for
damaging winds may exist along the boundary, especially if it moves
farther north than forecast with earlier air mass recovery.

..Jewell.. 06/16/2024

$$