896
ACUS02 KWNS 230529
SWODY2
SPC AC 230528

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across
portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern
Appalachians.

...OH/TN Valleys toward the Central/Southern Appalachians...

A complicated/messy scenario is unfolding for severe potential on
Tuesday. Most 00z CAMs and deterministic guidance suggests
potentially widespread convection may be ongoing Tuesday morning
across the Ohio Valley vicinity. This will limit heating and
destabilization across a broad warm sector ahead of an
eastward-advancing surface cold front. Nevertheless, a deepening
mid/upper trough will slowly shift east from eastern portions of the
central/southern Plains toward the MS River. Strengthening
deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region, providing
support for organized convection, with a mix clusters and line
segments possible.

Given uncertainty due to morning convection and subsequent airmass
destabilization, as well has some disagreement in timing of the
mid/upper trough, have introduced a rather broad Marginal risk
(level 1 of 5). Some refinement of this area, and/or potential
upgrades may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence
sufficiently increases in a more favorable/focused corridor of
severe potential. Where stronger heating/destabilization can occur,
damaging gusts will be possible.

..Leitman.. 09/23/2024

$$