719
ACUS03 KWNS 231923
SWODY3
SPC AC 231923

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is uncertain, but limited, on
Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
The upper-level trough across the Midwest into the Mid-South is
expected to evolve into a strong trough in the lower Great
Lakes/Northeast and a cut-off low in the Ozarks. A surface cold
front is expected to be positioned from near the upper Ohio Valley
southward into Mid-South and westward into the southern Plains. In
the Gulf of Mexico, current NHC forecasts show a hurricane moving
north-northeastward in parts of the eastern Gulf.

...Western/central New York...
A narrow warm sector may exist ahead of the cold front. Subtle
forcing from the trough to the north may promote storm development
during the afternoon. Given the potential for cloud
cover/precipitation early in the day, along with the strongest
mid-level ascent arriving during the evening, uncertainty is too
high for severe probabilities.

...Mid-South/Southeast...
Strong mid-level flow around the eventual cut-off low could allow
for some storm organization near the cold front. There is a fairly
strong signal for precipitation to be ongoing during morning and
into the afternoon. Surface-based destabilization is at best
uncertain and perhaps not very likely. No severe probabilities will
be added.

...Portions of the Florida Peninsula...
Given the forecast track of the tropical cyclone by NHC and
available model guidance, there is some potential for low-level wind
fields to increase in parts of the southern/central Florida
Peninsula towards Thursday morning. Given the trough to the north of
the expected hurricane and the uncertainty of the exact position of
the system and any related outer convective bands, will continue to
withhold low tornado probabilities.

..Wendt.. 09/23/2024

$$