122
ACUS03 KWNS 210650
SWODY3
SPC AC 210649

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the Ohio
Valley and Mid-South region on Monday.

...Ohio Valley and Mid-South vicinity...

An upper shortwave trough over the Mid-MS Valley will become
absorbed within a larger-scale trough shifting east across the
Plains on Monday. A belt of enhanced mid/upper level southwesterly
flow will overspread the Ohio Valley/Mid-South vicinity through much
of the period. At the surface, a cold front will develop south and
east across the Ohio and the Mid/Lower MS Valley area. A seasonally
moist airmass characterized by 60s F dewpoints will be in place
ahead of the front. Areas of precipitation and cloud cover are
likely from MO through the Ohio Valley early in the period,
resulting in forecast uncertainty. Nevertheless, enhanced midlevel
flow overspreading a moist airmass ahead of a cold front should
support some risk for severe thunderstorms where greater
destabilization occurs. Locally damaging gusts and hail appear to be
the most likely concerns with the strongest convection Monday
afternoon into the evening.

..Leitman.. 09/21/2024

$$