649
ACUS03 KWNS 250653
SWODY3
SPC AC 250653

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0153 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging thunderstorm wind
gusts exists across parts of North Carolina into southern Virginia
on Friday.

...NC/VA...

Strong low to midlevel southeasterly flow fields associated with the
remnants of Tropical Cyclone Helene will persist through Friday
afternoon across the southern Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Onshore
low-level flow will maintain a high theta-e airmass, with surface
dewpoints in the mid 70s F expected. Forecast soundings across the
area show favorable low-level hodographs supporting rotation within
cells in northwest moving convective bands. While lapse rates will
remain poor, rich boundary-layer moisture should provide enough
low-level instability to support occasional strong gusts and a
couple of tornadoes through late afternoon/early evening. The
northward extent of severe potential will be limited by weakening
deep-layer flow beyond the 21-00z time frame and a cold front
sagging southeast across VA.

..Leitman.. 09/25/2024

$$