178
FXUS63 KEAX 170709
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
209 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and humid conditions expected the next several days with
highs in the mid  90s each day with heat indices approaching 100.
Overnight lows may remain above 75 in the KC Metro.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Hot and humid conditions will continue to be the story of the next
several days. Currently a mid level ridge is situated over the
eastern US with troughing over the west. At the surface, we also see
broad high pressure situated to our east allowing for winds to
remain southerly, drawing in warm and moist air. Today we can expect
highs reaching the low to mid 90s across the forecast area with heat
indices reaching 97-100 degrees. Additionally southerly winds may be
a bit gusty through the afternoon with gusts up to 25-35 mph
possible. Tuesday can expect very similar conditions with highs
reaching the low to mid 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s to
near 100. On Tuesday night into Wednesday, a shortwave trough
progresses through the flow to our north allowing for increasing
shower and thunderstorms potential across our north as a frontal
boundary drifts south toward our area. Rainfall and
thunderstorms will be possible for some during the day
Wednesday, but unfortunately it will provide little in the way
of relief from the warm temperatures.

While these temperatures are certainly above average for mid June,
we are unlikely to meet any heat advisory criteria at this
point. Thankfully dewpoints should remain below 70 degrees each
day, meaning the heat index values will struggle to be much over
100 any day. Despite this, minor concerns exist for vulnerable
populations, especially across the Kansas City Metro, where
overnight lows will likely not fall below 75 for the next
several nights, providing little in the way of relief.

For the second half of the week there remains some uncertainty in
precipitation chances, but at this point it looks to be mainly dry
for the majority of the area. Temperatures will return to a warming
trend for the end of the week into the weekend. Highs will be in the
low to mid 90s each day. Heat indices look to remain below 100
through this time. Rainfall may return over the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1053 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected to last for the duration of the TAF
period. Winds will come out of the south and be breezy starting late
tomorrow morning. Occasional wind gusts as high as 30 mph are
possible through the day. Winds are expected to weaken towards the
evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HB
AVIATION...Collier