Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
241 FXUS63 KEAX 280422 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1122 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms tonight through Saturday morning. Locally moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible. - Strong to severe storms will possible tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night. - Very hot and humid conditions are likely return by next Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 338 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 As of 20z, an area of localized high pressure remains over west-central MO, modified by an upper level ridge centered over the US Southwest. Cloud cover will help contribute to more pleasant temperatures compared to the previous week. Additionally, drier air aloft will help maintain lower dewpoints moving further into the afternoon. Areas of showers and storms have been ongoing throughout the day in northern KS/southern NE, with lighter rain present in far northwestern MO/northeastern KS. Into the evening and overnight, a line of showers will be invigorated by a passing shortwave trough. Moderate shear and WAA will help sustain this line as it traverses from the northeast, with higher PWAT values contributing to more precip efficient storms. Current QPF values range around .5-1 inches, but higher amounts are possible in thunderstorms. After this initial line of storms and showers moves through northern MO, rainy conditions should clear out going into the afternoon. By Friday evening, another threat for heavy rain and severe weather exists. Another upper level disturbance will traverse over the northern Great Plains, bringing another shortwave trough and coincident boundary that will reinvigorate thunderstorm activity. Some CAMs suggest sufficient instability (~3000 J/kg CAPE) and moisture will be present over the region, as well as the presence of a low-level jet around the time of convective initiation. This would bring another round of organized, heavy rainfall to the region, with amounts as great as 1 inch with the most intense portions of the line. With current hydrologic headlines, this could contribute more to that threat. Any lingering convection should exit the region to the south by Saturday afternoon as the cold front moves into the Ozarks. High temperatures for Sat afternoon should be near seasonal normals, ranging from the mid 80s over northern MO to the upper 80s to near 90 degrees elsewhere. Slightly cooler and drier air should move in by Sunday as we will be influenced by the trough moving across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region, with highs in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s. Unfortunately, the heat looks to increase again as the mid level high strengthens over Oklahoma/Texas and higher mid level heights overspread the region. The current forecast calls for highs in the mid to even upper 90s with heat indices flirting with heat advisory criteria for Tuesday afternoon, although there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the area that could temper the heat a bit. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue into Tuesday night and into Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1122 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Cigs/vis are expected to remain VFR thru the pd outside of convection. However, two periods of storms are expected the first btn 09Z-14Z where MVFR cigs will be poss in lgt tsra. The second will occur aft 23Z when a couple rounds of storms will be poss which will have the chc to reduce cigs/vis. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Williams AVIATION...73