750
FXUS63 KEAX 291729
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1229 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Thursday
  afternoon, with periodic chances persisting into early next
  week. Severe weather is not expected.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Wed May 29 2024

Surface high pressure over the Upper Midwest has nosed into our
area, with generally light easterly winds and mostly clear skies
outside a band of clouds rooted at 10kft over central Missouri. A
wide range of temperatures exist this morning, with upper 40s in
northeast MO closer to high pressure to the upper 60s in urban core
of Downtown Kansas City. The weather for today will continue to the
pleasant and quiet theme with low humidity and high temperatures
near normal in the middle to upper 70s. Cannot rule out an isolated
shower sneaking across east central Kansas this afternoon, but the
probability is very low (under 15%).

Changes towards a more active weather pattern begin on Thursday and
generally remain through the end of the forecast period. The
environment will largely be characterized by modest instability and
low deep layer shear, so severe weather is not expected at this time
through the weekend. The primary upper trough by Thursday into the
weekend will be displaced well to our northwest/north, with a
subtropical jet over northern Mexico into Texas. In between these
primary features, semi-zonal flow will persist over the Central
Plains, with several embedded shortwave troughs moving across the
region. While the specifics in timing in coverage and amounts become
more uncertain later in the forecast period as model spread grows,
there continues to be the trend of two primary precipitation
windows; the first being late Thursday into early Friday and the
second on Monday. As for temperatures, Friday looks to be the
coolest day with signal for abundant cloud cover and lingering
precipitation chances. Otherwise, look for readings to creep back to
slightly above normal by Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed May 29 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the period with mostly clear skies
overseeing the terminals throughout the evening and overnight hours.
According to the latest model guidance, broken to overcast cloud
coverage associated with a trough are expected to move across the
terminals as early 12-13Z Thursday morning. Ceilings have the
potential to lower below VFR thresholds as the trough moves into our
area, but uncertainty is high at this time. Winds will be out of the
east at around 8-10 knots this evening before shifting more
southeasterly tomorrow morning as the system approaches.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Blair
AVIATION...Hayes