129
FXUS63 KEAX 200658
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
158 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across northern
  Missouri this morning. Brief heavy rainfall and isolated
  flooding concerns possible

- Heat and humidity continue for the next several days with high temperatures
  in the 90s and heat index values approaching 100F.
  Temperatures in the upper 90s and heat index values around
  100-105F are possible early next week.

- Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms possible
  Saturday evening into Sunday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Shower and thunderstorm activity has lingered into the
overnight thanks to a stalled frontal boundary draped across the
northern part of our forecast area.  Severe weather is not
expected, but minor flooding could be possible in isolated
locations that have seen repeated rounds of rainfall the last
few days. Additional amounts of 1-1.5 inches could be possible
for some. Lingering morning rainfall is expected to move out,
however a few isolated storms will still be possible in far
norther MO this afternoon with the boundary hanging around. Most
of the area will stay dry for Thursday afternoon with highs
across the area ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s.

A warming trend is expected to finish out the week with dry and warm
conditions expected for Friday.  Highs will reach the low to mid 90s
for most locations under partly cloudy skies. Saturday looks to be
even warmer with potential to even see upper 90s, especially in
the KC Metro. With afternoon dewpoints climbing to near 70,
heat indices may climb into the lower 100s.

By Saturday evening attention will shift to a wave pushing to our
north, dragging a cold front through the forecast area. Rainfall and
thunderstorms will again become possible across northern portions
of the area Saturday night into Sunday. This front will have little
impact on temperatures with high still looking to be in the mid to
upper 90s Sunday afternoon. Heading into next week looks even hotter
with mid level ridging building to our west and spreading into the
forecast area for the early part of the work week. Mid and even
upper 90s will be possible Monday through Wednesday. Heat indices
may also become a concern with potential for meeting Heat Advisory
at some point next week. Heat indices approaching 105 will be a
definite possibility, especially on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Shower and thunderstorm activity persists across northwestern
MO, mainly impacting STJ. Storms are expected to continue for
the next several hours, eventually clearing out by morning.
Otherwise expect ceilings to vary somewhat through the morning
hours with occasional dips into IFR with occasional impacts to
visibility. Improvement is expected after sunrise.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HB
AVIATION...HB