Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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463 FXUS63 KEAX 172335 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 635 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Well above normal temperatures continue through Friday. - Isolated strong to marginally severe storms will be possible on Thursday afternoon/evening. - Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are possible this weekend into early next week. Locally moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible. - Much cooler temperatures expected for Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 247 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 The high over low blocking pattern remains over the eastern CONUS with a mid level high over the eastern Great Lakes and a mid level low over the Carolinas. Meanwhile, a relatively deep closed low remains over the Bay Area of California with associated troughing over the western CONUS with ridging and warm 850 mb temp anomalies over the Plains. The blocking pattern over the eastern CONUS will continue to stunt the eastern progress of the western trough. The result of all this is another day of above normal temperatures, with 3 pm temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 80s. Overnight lows tonight will be well above normal as well (mid 60s to near 70 degrees). As we head into tomorrow, the western trough finally starts to make some eastern progress, moving over the Rockies by 18z tomorrow and eventually into the High Plains by tomorrow evening. This will send a cold front into west central Kansas by tomorrow evening. Any associated convection tomorrow should die by the time it approaches far eastern Kansas, keeping our area dry with afternoon highs again in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees. A few showers and storms could be possible overnight Wednesday night into Thursday morning, especially for NE Kansas and NW Missouri. By midday Thursday, the mid level low previously centered over the northern High Plains is progged to be centered over southern Manitoba. An associated north-south oriented cold front will approach our region from the west on Thursday afternoon and evening, and could ignite thunderstorms within an environment of around 1000 J/kg of ML CAPE and 20 to 30 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear. This will yield a marginal risk for strong to severe storms for Thursday. Otherwise, hot and relatively humid conditions are expected again for Thursday, with afternoon highs in the mid 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s. Another trough is projected to move onshore across Southern California Thursday night, and eventually move into Plains this weekend, with enhanced west southwesterly mid level flow overspreading our region (especially on Sunday). With dew points in the upper 60s, PWATs approaching 2", forcing for ascent, and modest to moderate instability, shower and thunderstorm chances increase beginning Saturday morning, and continues into Sunday, with locally moderate to heavy rainfall possible. On Sunday, deep layer wind shear should increase to 40-45 knots, which could yield the potential for strong to marginally severe storms. Models suggest troughing lingering overhead through early next week, which keeps chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast, as well as much cooler temperatures. Rainfall totals per WPC range from 1 inch to as much as 3 inches for Saturday morning through Monday morning. The LREF is less excited, only showing around a 20% chance for rainfall exceeding an inch across the region. Meanwhile, the NBM probabilities at KC International show around a 50% chance for rainfall exceeding an inch, with 24% chance to exceed 2 inches. Regardless, it does look likely that much of the region should get some very beneficial rainfall this weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 631 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 VFR conditions persist through the overnight. Winds remain southerly becoming light after sunset. Storms to the west are not expected to reach the area; however, residual low cloud cover envelops the region tomorrow morning which may bring some MVFR CIGs. Sky coverage is expected to be greater further north. Southerly winds accelerate to around 10-12 kts after sunrise. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Williams AVIATION...Pesel