Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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533 FXUS63 KEAX 191138 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 638 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Summer-like temperatures are expect for much of the area into the weekend. Highs expected to be in the 90s each day. - Shower and thunderstorm activity expected tonight into Wednesday for northern portions of the forecast area. Amounts up to 2-2.5 inches could be possible in some locations. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 214 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Overnight a shortwave trough has passed to our north. At the surface low pressure across Iowa and an associated cool front has gradually sagged into our area overnight. Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity continues across the north part of our forecast area. This frontal boundary will very slowly creep south, though it looks to become more stationary as we head into the day. This will allow for continued shower and thunderstorm chances into the day Wednesday. Widespread severe weather looks unlikely with this system, but a few storms may be capable of producing gusty winds along with heavy downpours. As the front makes little progress south, only about half of the area should see rainfall on Wednesday. Amounts will be highest in far northwest Missouri where up to 2 inches will be possible. Isolated flooding concerns will be possible in some locations. With the boundary draped across our area along with rainfall, expect a sharp gradient in high temperatures this afternoon. Across the far north, temperatures will struggle to make it out of the mid 70s. In the southern part of the forecast area, temperatures will again reach near 90 degrees and see little in the way of rainfall. Rainfall chances shift out of the forecast are during the afternoon with mainly dry weather returning to the forecast. Minor rainfall chances will exist in far northern Missouri on Thursday, but better chances will remain outside of the area, so most will stay dry. The later half of the week will also be characterized by a warming trend heading into the weekend with ridging situated across the east. On Thursday highs will be near 90 for a majority of the area. Dewpoints should remain below 70s, but we will still see heat indices into the mid 90s. On Friday highs will be a few degrees warmer topping out in the low to mid 90s. Saturday will be the hottest day of the week with highs reaching the mid 90s. Even upper 90s will be possible Saturday for the KC Metro. Heat indices will reach the lower 100s. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will hold off until Saturday night into Sunday. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 638 AM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Shra with oncl embd ts is expected thru 15Z with VFR cigs btn 3-4kft. Aft 15Z cigs are expected to drop into MVFR between 2-3kft with ocnl lgt shra cont. Showers are expected to come to an end around 18Z with MVFR cigs persisting. Aft 22Z cigs are expected to rise back to VFR however, scattered thunderstorms are expect to develop. Conf on location of the storms is not high enough for tsra in the TAF at this time so have opted for VCTS btn 22Z-03Z. Aft 03Z...ts chc will diminish with bkn-ovc cigs btn 3-4kft with the exception of STJ which will experience a return to MVFR cigs. Winds thru the pd will generally be lgt and vrb blw 6kts. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...HB AVIATION...73