390
FXUS63 KEAX 242352
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
652 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered storms are possible this afternoon into
evening.  A strong storm or two are possible through the early
evening hours with hail and gusty winds being the main threats.

- Drier conditions are expected Wednesday into daylight hours on
Thursday.

- Cut off upper level low will bring wrap around moisture into
  the region this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Interesting weather pattern setting up across the central US with an
amplified ridge across the western US and deepening trough across
the central US as strong upper level jet streak dives south on the
backside of the trough.  Short wave across western Iowa is expected
to continue to shift south through the late afternoon/evening.
Weakly unstable atmosphere ahead of the short wave with ML CAPE of
500-1000 J/kg could be enough to support a few isolated to scattered
storms through the late afternoon into the evening hours.
Instability is mainly a response from steep lapse rates from the
near surface layer to 650 mb.  The low topped convection will have
minimal amounts of speed shear, but cyclonic curvature may be enough
to lead to a strong storm or two through the evening hours with
gusty winds or small hail being the main threats.  This activity
should shift south through the evening hours and weaken after
sunset.

Drier conditions are expected Wednesday into Thursday as upper ridge
tries to expand east; however, the deepening trough across the
Central US becomes cutoff from the flow and lingers across the
Mississippi Valley. The remnants of Helene becomes wrapped up in the
trough across the central US this weekend bringing additional
moisture into the system and additional chances for precipitation
wrapping back into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 652 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Showers and thunderstorms have pushed thru the TAF sites
however, vcsh may be poss thru 01Z. Otrw...conds will remain VFR
thru the TAF pd as just sct-bkn mid-lvl clouds are fcst thru
04Z aft which clear skies are expected. Some models are hinting
at the potential for lgt fog btn 11Z-14Z however, will leave out
of this TAF issuance and reevaluate for the 06Z TAF cycle.
Winds will be lgt and vrb tonight before becmg NNE around 5kts
around 15Z.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...73