615
FXUS63 KEAX 171038
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
538 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures are expected through the week.

- Rain chances increase late in the week and into the weekend.

- A few strong storms look possible Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

The blocking high-over-low pattern remains over the eastern CONUS
with a cyclone over the Carolinas undercutting the ridge over the
the Middle Atlantic to New England. To the west a strong closed
low was moving into the Great Basin. Through the middle of the
country broad upper ridging was noted. The blocking pattern over
the eastern CONUS is restricting the progression of the upper
flow over the the US and as a result, we`ll continue to see
above normal temperatures across the region with the upper ridge
axis persistent through the region. The normal high for the KC
area through the end of the week is 79 and trending to 78 by
Thursday and Friday. With high temperatures forecast to be in
the upper 80s to lower 90s, we`ll be 10-15 degrees above normal
through the end of the week.

Conditions through the end of the week look generally dry as well,
given the upper ridging over the area. However, some low chances for
rain show up in the western and mainly northwestern portions of the
forecast area at various times. This morning, there is a slight
chance (<15%) some precipitation survives into far northwestern MO.
It looks more likely that the ongoing convection in central KS will
dissipate as it slowly tracks east this morning. Wednesday morning,
a similar scenario looks possible, with convection developing in the
High Plains during the afternoon/evening hours and tracking east
overnight. Ensemble guidance has this precipitation area surviving
further east and as a result, have low PoPs (<20%) into eastern KS
and western MO during the day Wednesday. Thursday, low-level forcing
associated with a weak frontal boundary will push into eastern NE
and KS. This would act as the focus for storm development Thursday
afternoon with storms then pushing east during the evening/overnight
hours. We could see a few strong storms Thursday with modest
instability building and marginal shear. That front may stall
across the area Friday into Saturday and that`s when it looks
like we`ll see our best potential for precipitation.

Late in the period, the upper-level pattern becomes much more
uncertain. Ensemble clusters show several potential patterns
evolving next week. One cluster (about 30% of members) has a large
trough developing by day 7-8. However another cluster (about 15% of
members) shows ridging during this time frame. The ensemble mean
generally shows troughing across the middle of the country with
ridging over the coasts. This model variation generally explains the
low PoPs through the end of the forecast and into next week.
Needless to say, confidence is not high with either scenario at this
point in time.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 537 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast. Winds will be
light from the south to southeast. May see some diurnal
afternoon CU that will dissipate with loss of daytime heating.
Best potential for fog this morning looks east of the terminals
into central MO, where winds are lightest.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB