397
FXUS63 KEAX 251736
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1236 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near seasonal temperatures expected through the rest of the
  week

- Lowered precipitation chances for this weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Clear skies currently across the CWA with light winds, highlight the
impacts of a surface high pressure just to the northwest over the
NB/KS border. This set up suggests radiational cooling resulting in
a potential for fog early this morning. At this time, guidance
suggests patchy fog for areas along and north of HWY-36 which
correlates with the current lowest dewpoint depressions. Areas that
receive fog will clear out by late morning with diurnal mixing.

Later today, mid to upper level troughing moving through the area
will transition to a cut-off low and stagnate just to the east of
the area over IL. Ridging builds in behind the low and broadscale
subsidence will lead to clear skies across the area. As skies remain
clear expect high temperatures to reach the mid to upper 70s across
the area resulting in a fairly nice day.

For the second half of the week, the tropical system Helene is
expected to make landfall and track north from the eastern side of
the Gulf through GA. The more recent GFS model runs have shifted the
track of Helene further to the east resulting in lowered
precipitation chances for this weekend. Even so, light, scattered
showers are still possible Friday. An isolated thunderstorm or two
is also not out of the question. However, potential thunderstorms
have very limited instability to work with shown in stable lapse
rates and weak MUCAPE values. The NBM 12-Hr Thunderstorm Probability
also concurs as probabilities remain under 10% for Friday.

To start the weekend, the Fujiwhara effect will play a role in the
aforementioned cut-off low and Helene merging together forming a new
low over eastern CONUS. Helene is expected to significantly increase
moisture transport. Depending on how far east Helene goes will
determine precipitation chances this weekend for our area.

A deepening trough moving through Canada early next week with its
associated surface cold front, extending through central CONUS, may
help to drop temperatures. Colder, polar air filtering through the
area may yield a rather chilly start to next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

VFR conditions with some diurnal CU and light north-northeast
winds expected through the period. Clouds dissipate after
sunset. There is a chance for some BR/FG development around sunrise
Thursday, especially around STJ; however, uncertainties for
BR/FG remain high at this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Pesel