Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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855 FXUS63 KEAX 221122 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 622 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 ...12z Aviation Update... .KEY MESSAGES... * Additional rainfall amounts of a couple inches possible today, south * Weak showers/thunder chances continue into Monday * Cooler temperatures settle in through the forecast period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 347 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Widespread showers and thunderstorms moved through the area yesterday evening and through the overnight, providing some welcome rainfall. MRMS 24hr estimated rainfall amounts through 2am highlighted two distinct swaths across the CWA, NW/N Missouri and then a wider area coming into the KC Metro from the SW and then east along I-70. In both instances, a few pockets and bands of 2 to near 3 inches of rainfall. Given much of those amounts fell within 3 to 6 hour periods, they have remained well within/below FFG. In the immediate/near term, the latter mentioned, southern, swath/area remains active and CAM guidance most commonly suggest an additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall as another push of activity moves out of central and southeast KS early this morning. As such, not completely out of the woods with regards to flash flooding risk should areas that have received near 3 inches see an additional couple or more through the early to mid-morning hours. Through the day today, cold frontal boundary will continue to drop through the state, pushing most robust activity southward. For much of the CWA though, there will remain periods of elevated weak shower activity as the SW CONUS trough continues to move into High Plains and stream shortwave energy and moist/weakly unstable SW mid- level flow into the area. Surface frontal position by the afternoon/evening is expected to push out of the CWA and into the SGF area, potentially toward the MO/AR border. That in effect pushes any strong/severe threat out of the CWA as a result. Overall a cool to chilly, wet at times overcast day. Looking into the work week, there is an unusual amount of uncertainty lingering with regards to pattern evolution and by virtue temperature and precipitation forecasts as you move into mid- late week. But first, for Monday, light precipitation activity is possible at times as the southern stream trough moves into the area and provides a period of deeper lift. From there, deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to struggle to find a consensus in the large scale pattern evolution. Namely, how to handle a northern stream trough dropping down into the Central Plains. The 00z Euro and Canadian deterministic models continue to develop a closed low that lingers over the central to southern Plains, where as the 00z GFS shows a much more progressive pattern with no closed low developing or lingering. Though, previous runs of the GFS did linger a closed low, but much further east than the Euro solution. This too tends to be reflected in the ensemble guidance with 25th/75th percentile Max T ranges of 6 or more degrees F by mid-week. Regardless, that should not carry much consequence considering we are talking about 70s to low 80s. Precipitation forecasts will hinge greatly on where (or if) closed low develops and how long it lingers. A general lack of moisture keeps PoPs down, though do increase late week with depictions of a tropical system lifting out of the Gulf and interacting with any lingering closed low. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 612 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 A messy aviation forecast through at least the first half of the TAF period. Currently, mixture of IFR to MVFR cloud cover across the area with some uncertainty in areal coverage and persistence of IFR. Do have prevailing IFR at all sites except STJ to start, though some bounce between IFR/MVFR will be possible given current upstream obs. By afternoon/after 18z, should begin to see widespread gradual ceiling improvements with VFR returning by around 00z. Periods -RA/-SHRA will prevail through the morning hours, giving way to predominantly overcast conditions by late morning. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Curtis AVIATION...Curtis