621
FXUS63 KEAX 161919
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
219 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions will persist through the week.
  Overnight lows in the KC Metro may struggle to get below 75 F
  each night/morning and afternoon temps will hover in the lower
  90s with heat index values in the upper 90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Through 2 PM CDT, the MCV that churned across the region this
morning continues to lift northeast across southeast Iowa, with any
remaining precip already exiting our area along with it. Surface
analysis reveals a weak surface trough from southeast Colorado into
Iowa and Minnesota. In response, south-southwest winds have
increased this afternoon, gusting around 20 to 25 mph. Cloud cover
has held temps back a touch, but with persistent WAA, temperatures
this afternoon continue to trend a few degrees above normal across
the area, in the upper 80s for many.

Mid-level WV reveals the broad ridge holding over the eastern CONUS,
with troughing to the west. Short to mid-range guidance persists
with this trend through Tuesday and Wednesday, with a short wave
trough lifting across the northern Plains Tuesday into Wednesday,
increased forcing for ascent will develop along the surface pressure
gradient across the Plains into the upper Great Lakes. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase along this corridor, just
skirting northeastern Kansas and northwestern Missouri through
Thursday.

Temperatures will remain the primary focus for the next few days as
clouds are expected to clear out through tomorrow and WAA continues
to bring hot and humid air through the boundary layer. Highs will
reach the lower 90s with afternoon heat index values in the mid to
upper 90s. These temps will persist through the week. The real
concern is the overnight lows, especially for the KC Metro area.
Overnight lows will struggle to dip below 75 F every night/morning.
This persists through the end of the work week and we`ll need to
look at the potential for a heat advisory just for overnight lows
remaining warm. Will let the Monday day shift take a closer look and
see how trends persist before making a decision.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions prevail with broken to scattered cloud coverage
lingering over most TAF sites through the afternoon and evening
hours. Skies will start to clear around 01Z-02Z, with cloud coverage
expected to decrease at STJ first. Winds will be predominantly out
of the south-southwest at 15-20 knots, possibly gusting over 25
knots in some instances. Winds will relax after 00Z before gusts
return by 13-14Z Monday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kurtz
AVIATION...Hayes