675
FXUS63 KEAX 272103
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
403 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms
  tonight through Saturday morning. Locally moderate to heavy
  rainfall will be possible.

- Strong to severe storms will possible tomorrow afternoon
  through tomorrow night.

- Very hot and humid conditions are likely return by next
  Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

As of 20z, an area of localized high pressure remains over
west-central MO, modified by an upper level ridge centered over the
US Southwest. Cloud cover will help contribute to more pleasant
temperatures compared to the previous week. Additionally, drier air
aloft will help maintain lower dewpoints moving further into the
afternoon. Areas of showers and storms have been ongoing throughout
the day in northern KS/southern NE, with lighter rain present in far
northwestern MO/northeastern KS.

Into the evening and overnight, a line of showers will be
invigorated by a passing shortwave trough. Moderate shear and WAA
will help sustain this line as it traverses from the northeast, with
higher PWAT values contributing to more precip efficient storms.
Current QPF values range around .5-1 inches, but higher amounts are
possible in thunderstorms. After this initial line of storms and
showers moves through northern MO, rainy conditions should clear
out going into the afternoon.

By Friday evening, another threat for heavy rain and severe weather
exists. Another upper level disturbance will traverse over the
northern Great Plains, bringing another shortwave trough and
coincident boundary that will reinvigorate thunderstorm activity.
Some CAMs suggest sufficient instability (~3000 J/kg CAPE) and
moisture will be present over the region, as well as the presence of
a low-level jet around the time of convective initiation. This would
bring another round of organized, heavy rainfall to the region, with
amounts as great as 1 inch with the most intense portions of the
line. With current hydrologic headlines, this could contribute more
to that threat.

Any lingering convection should exit the region to the south by
Saturday afternoon as the cold front moves into the Ozarks. High
temperatures for Sat afternoon should be near seasonal normals,
ranging from the mid 80s over northern MO to the upper 80s to
near 90 degrees elsewhere. Slightly cooler and drier air should
move in by Sunday as we will be influenced by the trough moving
across the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region, with
highs in the low to mid 80s and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s.

Unfortunately, the heat looks to increase again as the mid level
high strengthens over Oklahoma/Texas and higher mid level
heights overspread the region. The current forecast calls for
highs in the mid to even upper 90s with heat indices flirting
with heat advisory criteria for Tuesday afternoon, although
there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the area
that could temper the heat a bit. Shower and thunderstorm
chances continue into Tuesday night and into Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

With an oncoming cloud deck over TAF sites going into this
afternoon, introducing a broken layer by 19z. Otherwise, the
main concern for aviation will be precipitation going into 6z at
all TAF sites. This precipitation is expected to persist until
at least 14z tomorrow, with VCTS anticipated around 10z. Gusts
will begin around this time, and persist later into the day as
the precipitation moves away from the TAF sites.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SPG/BMW
AVIATION...SPG