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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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655 FXUS63 KEAX 282345 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 645 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe storms expected overnight, with damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall being the main hazards. - Temperatures cool temporarily going into the weekend. - Very hot and humid conditions expected to return next Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 106 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Early day storms and showers have mostly moved out of the region at this point, leaving behind a cooler, moist airmass. Cloud cover has persisted over much of eastern KS and MO throughout the day, with some pockets evident on satellite. With these conditions in place, the risk of severe weather tonight has become more uncertain. This is in addition to the presence of a strong capping inversion over the region. If cloudier conditions continue, then the lack of warming to this airmass may not destabilize it enough to create energetic storm modes. However. with some clearing evident within the cloud shield, there is a non-zero chance of severe development going into the overnight hours. With a cold frontal boundary forcing from a surface low and its coincident upper level trough, a line of precipitation is set to develop across NW MO and NE KS starting around the evening. Models such as the NAM Nest and HRRR keep a line of storms tracking over north-central MO, with the HREF keeping them organized throughout the night. The likeliest period of impact will begin at 7pm, with storms tracking southeast into midnight tonight. Taking a look at forecast soundings before the line of precipitation moves through, primary threats will be damaging wind and large hail, with a layer of dry air aloft and a lower freezing level. Lapse rates are forecast to remain lower around 6.5 degC/km, and forecasted shear values of 40-50 kts could maintain stronger updrafts in any severe storms that form. Irregardless of the severe threat, this line of storms will be efficient precip producers (PWAT values ~2 inches across the line), and will bring a threat of heavy rainfall to much of central MO overnight. This will serve to exacerbate hydrologic headlines in the region. By tomorrow morning, conditions should become mostly clear as the complex exits towards the southeast in full. With the passage of this storm system, temperatures are expected to fall in the upcoming days with the establishment of a surface high bringing northerly winds and slightly cooler air to the area. Afterwards, though, the propagation of this surface high towards the east alongside its upper level ridge over the southern CONUS will provide persistent southerly winds. With these winds, temperatures are expected to rise once more to the low 90s by early next week. Sporadic shortwave troughs embedded within the upper level ridge`s flow will bring more opportunities for scattered precipitation moving into next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 631 PM CDT Fri Jun 28 2024 Currently VFR at all terminals with southerly winds around 10 knots. Convection has initiated along the cold front over eastern Kansas. These storms should progress eastward this evening, likely impacting the terminals in the 2z to 7z time frame tonight. There could be periods of heavy rain with VSBYs dropping as low as IFR, along with a chance for hail and strong wind gusts up to 55 knots. Winds should turn easterly and eventually northerly by tomorrow morning, remaining at 10 knots or less, with VFR conditions likely. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...BMW