Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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217
FXUS66 KEKA 151149
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
449 AM PDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather is expected through the weekend. Interior
temperatures continue to drop below seasonal normals this weekend.
Breezy to windy westerly to northwesterly winds this afternoon and
evening, with much stronger winds are expected this Sunday evening
into Monday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Stratus has intruded most interior valleys in
Humboldt and Del Norte early this morning, and extends well up the
Eel River valley into Mendocino. This cloud should mix out by late
morning. Latest satellite WV imagery is showing a large longwave
trough currently in place over the PNW, and this feature will aid in
continuing a cooling trend today and Sunday, with afternoon highs
forecasted to remain around 5 to 10 degrees below climatological
normal. NW winds are expected to pick up again across the area this
afternoon, albeit weaker than yesterday`s, then weaken again tonight.

A few weak shortwaves move through this feature this weekend and
early next week, the most potent of these is forecast to drift
onshore Sunday afternoon. The primary concern with this feature
looks to be wind, and gusts from 25 to 35 mph are likely across Lake
and southern Mendocino counties, and latest NBM ensemble guidance is
indicating a chance (20 to 30%) of gusts exceeding 40 mph at Cow Mtn
and near Cobb in Lake County. With afternoon RH values forecast to
reach the low 20 to teens each afternoon this weekend, there exists
a slight risk for rapid spread of grass fires on Sunday. See Fire Wx
section for more details.

Otherwise, slightly cooler air and continued dry conditions with
clear skies should result in chilly overnight temperatures once
winds decouple. There is a chance (20 to 40%) for brief morning
frost in the colder valleys of Trinity and eastern Humboldt
counties Sunday night. Precip chances have dried up with recent
guidance, with general consensus that approaching moisture with
this shortwave will split offshore on Sunday and miss NWRN CA to
the north and south...with less than a 5% chance of one hundredth
of an inch in Del Norte and Humboldt counties. Afternoon high
temperatures are forecast to slowly trend back toward
climatological normals next week, with longwave troughing
continuing aloft well into the work week.


&&

.AVIATION...Spotty areas of stratus will continue along coastal areas
into mid morning. By early afternoon, gusty north to north-westerly
winds will pick up helping to clear out most stratus. Gusty north to
north-westerly winds will affect interior terminals, such as UKI
through today. Winds at most terminals will die down this evening as
stratus has the potential to affect coastal terminals again late
tonight, though it is expected to be less expansive.


&&

.MARINE...Small craft advisory conditions will continue this morning
for the southern zones. Steep square waves have mellowed in the
northern inner and outer waters. Expect a return to small craft
advisory conditions by Sunday morning for the northern waters as
steep square waves fill back in at 6 to 7 feet, in as many seconds
of period. Gales in the southern waters will return by 19z this
afternoon after a brief reprieve of small craft advisory conditions.
Plan accordingly as the sea state will be unsettled and conditions
oscillate between Small Craft and Gales in the Southern inner and
outer waters through the weekend. /EYS /JLW


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Breezy to windy west to northwest winds are
expected to develop Sunday, with better chances of more frequent
gusts, and a chance (20 to 30%) for gusts to reach above 40 mph at
Cow Mtn and Cobb in Lake County. Dry conditions with low daytime
RH`s in the 20`s and teens are expected to continue through the
foreseeable future, primarily in Lake and Trinity counties, and
interior Mendocino. The strong winds and low humidity will yield an
elevated fire weather threat Sunday, particularly for the south and
east side of Lake County. A Red Flag Warning remains in zone 264
(southern Lake), from late Saturday through early Monday, primarily
for the possibility of rapid spreading grass fires.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Red Flag Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Monday
     for CAZ264.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM PDT Sunday for
     PZZ450-470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for
     PZZ455-475.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Sunday
     for PZZ475.

&&

$$

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