Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA
072 FXUS66 KEKA 142254 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 354 PM PDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Dry weather is expected through the weekend. Interior temperatures continue to drop below seasonal normals this weekend. Breezy to windy westerly to northwesterly winds this afternoon and evening, with much stronger winds are expected this Sunday evening into Monday. && .DISCUSSION...A dry cold front is traversing the Pacific NW and Northern California this afternoon, aiding in continue cooling trend and high level clouds streaming across the area. Interior temperatures are running 8 to 15 degrees cooler than yesterday`s reading, with highs farther inland in the 70`s and 80`s degree. Stratus and marine layer depth are expected to redevelop the North Coast later this evening into Saturday. In addition, breezy to windy west to northwest conditions are expected to develop late this afternoon and evening in the wake of the passing shortwave trough, with peak gusts likely reaching between 25 and 35 mph this afternoon in southern Mendocino and Lake county, as well as in the Trinity River Valley east of Burnt Ranch. Winds should then weaken tonight at lower elevations as the valleys decouple, while gusts are forecast to continue on ridges in these areas into early Saturday. A cooling trend will continue this weekend into early next week as the upper level trough center over the Gulf of Alaska swing toward British Columbia and a few shortwave trough moves over northern California. Slightly cooler air and continued dry conditions with clear skies should result in chilly overnight temperatures once winds decouple. There is a chance (45-60%) for brief morning frost in the colder valleys of Trinity and eastern Humboldt counties Sunday and early next week. Sunday, strong and gusty westerly to northwesterly winds is expected to redevelop in the interior, particularly in Lake, Trinity and Mendocino. Peak gusts from 30 to 40 mph are probable, with 25-60% probabilities for gusts to 40-50 mph. Strongest winds will most likely occur on Sunday evening with the passage of a 500mb shortwave trough. Windy conditions in the interior will probably continue into Monday. With afternoon RH values forecast to reach the low 20 to teens each afternoon this weekend, there exists a slight risk for rapid spread of grass fires on Sunday. See Fire Wx section for more details. There is also a slight chance (10%-20%) that Sunday`s shortwave brings some very light rain to NWRN CA Sunday evening, most likely in Del Norte. However, light rain or sprinkle will most likely expected. The latest suite has diminish the probabilities of wetting rain, with NBM probabilities for greater than 0.10in now at 5% for Del Norte County. Now the GFS and ECMWF are in a better agreement to remain the wetting rain offshore of the area. && .AVIATION...Coastal stratus, north of Cape Mendocino, was very fragmented this morning. Low MVFR-IFR/LIFR conditions mixed out earlier than the previous day resulting in CEC and ACV becoming VFR before 9 AM. However, A plethora of Thin-thick high clouds, associated with an upper level disturbance, move across the region...with no known flight impacts. Inland areas remained VFR. By late morning, gusty north to north-westerly winds picked up at the coast and then the interior. Winds will decouple by late evening. Stratus is expected to return into tonight for the coastal terminals. /TA && .MARINE...Gale force gusts continue in the southern outer and inner waters until 4z. Small craft advisory conditions will follow after the Gales expire tonight for PZZ455 and PZZ475. Steep square waves have mellowed in the northern inner and outer waters with conditions dropping below small craft advisory criteria this afternoon. Wave heights in the northern waters are currently 4 to 6 feet at 11 seconds from the NW with gusts in the low 20kt range intermittently. Expect a return to SC.Y Sunday morning for the northern waters as steep square waves fill back in at 6 to 7 feet, in as many seconds of period. Gales in the southern waters will return by 19z Saturday afternoon after a brief reprieve and small craft advisory, SC.Y conditions. Plan accordingly as the sea state will be unsettled and conditions oscillate between Small Craft and Gales in the Southern inner and outer waters through the weekend. /EYS && .FIRE WEATHER...Breezy to windy west to northwest winds will continue through tonight. Gusts will likely range from 20 to 30 mph across southern Mendocino, southern Lake, and in the Trinity River valley east of Burnt Ranch. Winds are expected to be stronger Sunday, with better chances of more frequent gusts, and potential for gusts to reach above 40 mph at higher elevations. Dry conditions with low daytime RH`s in the 20`s and teens are expected to continue through the foreseeable future, primarily in Lake and Trinity counties, and interior Mendocino. RH recoveries are expected to increase slightly on Monday morning as moisture associated with the passing shortwave moves in. The strong winds and low humidity will yield an elevated fire weather threat Sunday, particularly for the south and east side of Lake County. Have to upgrade the Fire Weather Watch to Red Flag Warning in zone 264 (southern Lake), from late Saturday through early Monday. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Red Flag Warning from 11 PM Saturday to 5 AM PDT Monday for CAZ264. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ450-470. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ455-475. && $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png