168
AXPZ20 KNHC 231522
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jun 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1515 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 13N100W to 09N120W to
09N130W. The ITCZ extends from 09N130W to beyond 08N140W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm
south of the trough between 120W and 136W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen within 60 nm south of the trough between 109W
and 112W and also between 118W and 124W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak 1010 mb low is located west of Baja California Sur at
25N116.5W. A trough extends from the low north-northeastward to
30N116W, and south-southeastward from the low to near 20N115W.
This features is helping to maintain a relatively weak pressure
gradient across the Mexican offshore waters that supports gentle
to moderate breezes over the region. Combined seas are near 7 ft
over the offshore waters of Oaxaca, Guerrero, and Michoacan due
to lingering SW swell. But combined seas are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere
in open waters except 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California.
Isolated light showers are possible over some sections of the
central Gulf of California.

For the forecast, the relatively weak gradient over the area
will generally maintain gentle to moderate breezes and moderate
combined seas across the Mexican offshore waters through the
middle of next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active along the coast
of Nicaragua and northwest Costa Rica. This is related to
abundant moisture, a convergence of lower level winds, and
diffluent flow aloft. Latest satellite imagery shows less
coverage of the shower and thunderstorm activity than had been
observed during the past few days. Meanwhile, a weak pressure
pattern is supporting gentle to moderate breezes and moderate
combined seas with a component of SW swell across the region.

For the forecast, the rather weak pressure pattern over the
region will continue through the middle of next week and will
support generally gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
wave heights.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge centered on 1030 mb high pressure well
north of Hawaii dominates the basin west of 120W. Moderate to
fresh winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident west of 125W per
overnight altimeter satellite data passes. Gentle to moderate
breezes are noted east of 125W. An area of 8 ft seas primarily
due southeast long-period swell and wind waves from fresh
southeast winds is present over the western part of the area
from 03N to 08N between 109W and 118W. Gentle to moderate
breezes and moderate seas are noted elsewhere east to 125W.

For the forecast, the seas to 8 ft should subside late tonight
into early on Mon. Otherwise, little change is expected
elsewhere.

$$
Aguirre