160
AXPZ20 KNHC 230340
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Jun 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 13N87W to 14N95W to 09N120W to
09N130W. The ITCZ extends from 09N130W to beyond 07N140W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active within
30 nm of the coast of Costa Rica and Nicaragua from 09N to 12N.
Scattered moderate convection is evident within 30 nm of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ between 115W and 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A relatively weak pressure gradient is in place across the
Mexican offshore waters, supporting gentle to moderate breezes.
Combined seas are still approaching 8 ft in the offshore waters
of Oaxaca due to lingering SW swell. But combined seas are 5 to 7
ft elsewhere in open waters except 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of
California.

For the forecast, the relatively weak gradient over the area
will generally maintain gentle to moderate breezes and moderate
combined seas across the Mexican offshore waters through the
middle of next week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active along the coast
of Nicaragua and northwest Costa Rica. This is related to
abundant moisture, a convergence of lower level winds, and
diffluent flow aloft. Meanwhile, a weak pressure pattern is
supporting gentle to moderate breezes and moderate combined seas
with a component of SW swell across the region.

For the forecast, the rather weak pressure pattern over the
region will continue through the middle of next week and will
support generally gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
wave heights.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge centered on 1030 mb high pressure well
north of Hawaii dominates the basin west of 120W. Moderate to
fresh winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are evident west of 125W. Gentle
to moderate breezes are noted east of 125W. An altimeter
satellite pass from 01 UTC indicated seas to 8 ft still persist
as far west as 110W along 10N, related to lingering swell
associated with persistent SW wind that were active over the
region for most of the past week. These observed wave heights are
a little higher than wave models are suggesting. Gentle to
moderate breezes and moderate seas are noted elsewhere east to
125W.

For the forecast, the lingering swell east of 110W will diminish
through today. Little change is expected elsewhere.

$$
Christensen