861
FXUS64 KEPZ 201941
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
141 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms east of El Paso tonight, then
dry and cooler weather this weekend. Temperatures will be closer
to normal for late September next week with lowland highs in the
upper eighties and slight rain chances east of the Rio Grande.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Strong southwest flow aloft over the region today ahead of a
Pacific low centered over southern California. Plume of Gulf
moisture moving up out of Chihuahua across west Texas and south-
central New Mexico will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms
to parts of Otero, Hudspeth, and El Paso Counties later tonight.
Overall, rain amounts look to be light as these showers will move
to the northeast fairly quickly. Rain chances will linger into the
early Saturday morning hours.

Upper low progresses eastward on Saturday crossing the Southern
Rockies to our north and flushing out moisture to the east. This
push of westerlies will cool us down a few degrees and possibly
keep El Paso`s high in the upper 80s on Sunday. This would be
right near normal for late September.

Surface winds shift back to the east on Monday as high pressure
builds in across the Southern Plains behind the exiting low. This
will allow for a modest return of moisture to the area, especially
east of the Rio Grande valley.

Main question regarding next week`s weather forecast centers
around the strength and position of a break off polar jet streak
over the High Plains and how far south that developing upper low
can dive Tuesday/Wednesday. Good confidence in high pressure over
the Southwest US, but uncertainty lies in whether the El Paso
forecast area will be more under the influence of the former low
or latter high. If the low ends up resolving stronger than models
anticipate, we could expect more rain chances midweek (especially
east). If not, ridging flow aloft will likely keep us suppressed.
12Z GFS is the drier solution compared to the 12Z ECMWF, mostly
due to the positioning of that developing High Plains low. There
are still several GEFS perturbations that break this low off
early, but the majority favors a dry scenario for El Paso and
vicinity.

For now, NBM is keeping rain chances in the forecast for much of
the area Tuesday-Thursday, focusing east of the Rio Grande. I`m
worried those numbers may decrease in future forecast packages.
Something to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024

VMC expected to prevail through forecast period. Southwest flow
aloft with continued dry weather across SW NM. Scattered TSRA
across south-central NM and W TX, mostly east of El Paso between
the hours 22-04Z this evening. Skies generally SCT-BKN090 SCT-
BKN120 with rain chances east of US-54. Surface winds 210-240 at
10-15 knots this afternoon, with gusts to 25 knots possible at
KTCS. Lingering rain chances overnight, but terminals should
remain VMC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Elevated fire danger on Saturday, especially across southwestern
New Mexico with dry conditions and breezy southwest winds. Wind
gusts 20 to 30 mph in the afternoon will result in Excellent smoke
ventilation with transport to the northeast. Min RH 15-25%. Even
drier on Sunday, though winds will be much lighter.

Fuel conditions remain drier than normal for mid-September with
drought status still in place. The rest of September looks mostly
dry and warm for southwest New Mexico with a few rain chances for
LNF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  72  93  63  89 /  20  10   0   0
Sierra Blanca            67  89  59  85 /  50  20  10   0
Las Cruces               67  89  55  86 /  20  10   0   0
Alamogordo               66  89  54  85 /  30  20   0   0
Cloudcroft               49  66  40  64 /  40  30   0   0
Truth or Consequences    63  84  54  82 /  10  10   0   0
Silver City              54  75  48  79 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   61  87  51  85 /  10   0   0   0
Lordsburg                58  81  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       72  91  62  87 /  20  10   0   0
Dell City                68  94  59  88 /  50  20   0   0
Fort Hancock             70  96  62  90 /  50  10  10   0
Loma Linda               65  85  57  81 /  40  10   0   0
Fabens                   70  93  59  88 /  30  10   0   0
Santa Teresa             68  89  56  85 /  20  10   0   0
White Sands HQ           70  89  59  85 /  20  10   0   0
Jornada Range            67  87  53  84 /  20  10   0   0
Hatch                    66  88  52  86 /  10  10   0   0
Columbus                 65  89  55  85 /  10  10   0   0
Orogrande                66  88  54  83 /  30  20   0   0
Mayhill                  54  79  45  73 /  40  30   0   0
Mescalero                54  77  44  74 /  50  30   0   0
Timberon                 52  76  44  73 /  40  30   0   0
Winston                  50  76  42  75 /  10  10   0   0
Hillsboro                59  83  50  82 /  10  10   0   0
Spaceport                63  85  51  83 /  10  10   0   0
Lake Roberts             48  73  41  78 /  10   0   0   0
Hurley                   54  79  47  81 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    51  82  44  87 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               53  74  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  57  79  49  80 /  10   0   0   0
Animas                   58  84  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  57  84  50  83 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           56  85  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               55  78  50  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt