Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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016 FXUS64 KEPZ 292007 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 207 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 148 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024 Warm, dry, and breezy afternoon weather each day through the weekend. Temperatures warm further next week as high pressure builds over the region. Monsoon high pressure suggests thunderstorm chances will be possible in the coming weeks. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 148 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024 Brief moisture intrusion pushed El Paso`s dewpoint up to 57 degrees around sunrise this morning, but diurnal mixing and reestablishment of southwest flow has quickly eroded this moisture. A few weak convective updrafts exists over the Sacramento Mountains where terrain lifting is generating marginal low level instability, however rain chances will continue to be slim to none. Mostly zonal flow through the rest of this week, keeping the dryline boundary off to the east. Winds look to be on the lower side, becoming low-end breezy each afternoon. No major changes in day-to-day temperatures, with lowland highs in the upper 90s and El Paso possibly reaching 100 degrees again over the weekend. High pressure aloft over central Mexico will shift northward next week as a large-scale Omega Blocking pattern sets up across much of the western United States. Temperatures will continue to run slightly above seasonal normals with the center of high pressure directly overhead. El Paso can expect to see several more 100-degree days next week in the 101-104F range. The blocking pattern will also allow cease the prevailing southwest flow and thus allow for more chance at a moisture tap and isolated thunderstorm chances as we head into early June. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1120 AM MDT Wed May 29 2024 VMC through forecast period. Skies remaining generally SKC-FEW070 this afternoon. Midday surface winds increasing out of the southwest to 230-260 at 08-12 knots. Peak gusts of 25 knots at KTCS in the early evening hours. Winds subside overnight AOB 08 knots out of the west. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 148 PM MDT Wed May 29 2024 Brief moisture intrusion this morning, with favorable RH recoveries over the LNF and Sacramento Mountains. Moisture will quickly exit this evening, leading to elevated fire danger again on Thursday. Min RH 4-10% under west winds 10 to 15 mph tomorrow. Ventilation will be Very Good by noon with transport due east. Better overnight recoveries expected Friday/Saturday as moisture from the east returns due to light overnight winds. Afternoon RH will still be quite low. Wind direction back to the southwest through the weekend, with peak gusts generally less than 25 mph. Long-range models do suggest a reprieve from the ongoing fire weather conditions. High pressure over the region will stop the prevailing southwest flow and allow for better moisture return from the east. Lighter winds and higher RH look probable late next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 67 97 67 99 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 61 92 61 93 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 59 96 61 98 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 58 93 58 96 / 0 0 0 10 Cloudcroft 46 70 47 73 / 0 0 0 10 Truth or Consequences 60 93 62 94 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 53 84 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 54 95 56 96 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 56 91 56 94 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 64 94 64 96 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 56 96 55 97 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 59 98 59 99 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 59 88 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 61 97 62 99 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 57 92 57 95 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 67 94 67 96 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 55 93 56 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 55 95 57 97 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 61 93 62 96 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 59 92 59 94 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 51 84 52 83 / 0 0 0 10 Mescalero 50 81 50 83 / 0 0 0 10 Timberon 48 80 49 81 / 0 0 0 10 Winston 51 86 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 56 91 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 53 92 54 94 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 49 87 51 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 51 89 53 91 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 53 93 54 96 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 55 87 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 54 88 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 53 92 55 94 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 56 92 57 94 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 54 92 56 94 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 55 86 57 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt