054
FXUS64 KEPZ 132336
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
536 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 121 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024

Warm temperatures with lighter winds next few days under high
pressure aloft. Breezy winds return Wednesday and Thursday along
with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the high
mountains. Hot and dry weather expected next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 121 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024

Broad ridge over the region today, leading to a subtle warming
trend and lighter winds this afternoon. Cumulus coverage is better
than yesterday with isolated showers showing up over the high New
Mexico terrain. Surface dewpoints in the mid-20s suggest very
little to no precipitation will occur with these showers,
remaining mainly as virga this afternoon. More of the same on
Tuesday, with lowland highs in the lower 90s.

Weak Pacific low off the southern California coast will progress
inland midweek. This will lead to the return of breezy afternoon
conditions, with southwest winds 15 to 25 mph Wednesday/Thursday.
Broad diffluent zone ahead of this Pacific low will allow for mid
level moisture advection from the north and possibly some
thunderstorm chances over the Lincoln and Gila National Forests
Thursday afternoon. Low-end PoPs right now, but at least
something.

Stagnant high pressure aloft over northern Mexico will drive the
weather pattern late this week and into the weekend, which signals
another warmup. Lowland highs may reach the mid-90s next weekend,
with the possibility of El Paso`s first 100 degree high starting
to show probabilities of 20-30%. Dry weather will continue under
this steady southwest flow into late May.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024

VFR conditions persist through the forecast period. Isolated to
scattered virga/light rain showers are ongoing across the Gila
Region, drifting southward. VCSH has been added for KTCS to start
the period as a result. All other TAF sites remain dry this
evening, although KDMN could see a gusty outflow from the north by
01z. Shower activity dissipates around sunset this evening with
mainly clear skies overnight. Not as much CU buildup expected for
tomorrow afternoon. Winds AOB 7kts forecast tonight and tomorrow
AM. Modest gusts into upper teens from SW redevelop for tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 121 PM MDT Mon May 13 2024

Elevated fire danger on Tuesday and very dry conditions and light
southwest winds. Afternoon RH 6-12% with peak winds 10 to 15 mph.
Smoke ventilation will be Excellent with transport to the ENE.

Slight uptick in southwest flow Wednesday and Thursday resulting
in near-critical fire danger. No fire headlines are expected at
this time as winds remain just below critical thresholds. Slight
chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon, primarily
over LNF. This will pose a risk of dry lightning starts. Breezy
winds again Sunday/Monday as temperatures warm further. No
precipitation expected over the desert lowlands over the next 7
days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  63  93  65  92 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            57  87  59  87 /   0   0  10  10
Las Cruces               56  92  59  91 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               54  89  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               41  65  44  67 /   0   0   0  10
Truth or Consequences    56  86  58  87 /  10  10   0   0
Silver City              51  80  51  80 /  10   0   0   0
Deming                   53  90  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                53  87  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       61  90  63  89 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                51  92  55  92 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Hancock             55  94  58  93 /   0   0   0  10
Loma Linda               56  84  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   57  93  61  92 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             54  88  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           63  90  64  90 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            52  89  55  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    52  91  55  90 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 56  89  60  88 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                54  87  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  46  78  48  79 /   0   0   0  10
Mescalero                46  76  48  77 /   0   0   0  10
Timberon                 44  75  47  76 /   0   0   0  10
Winston                  49  77  51  79 /  10  10   0   0
Hillsboro                53  85  55  86 /  10  10   0   0
Spaceport                50  87  53  87 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             46  81  46  81 /  10  10   0   0
Hurley                   49  84  49  83 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    51  87  51  87 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               52  82  52  82 /  10   0   0   0
Faywood                  52  83  53  83 /  10   0   0   0
Animas                   52  87  52  86 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  53  87  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           53  87  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               52  81  52  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson