693
FXUS64 KEPZ 190525
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1125 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1225 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

One more hot day is expected Wednesday before cooler conditions
move into the region. Thunderstorms will develop across far
eastern areas Wednesday afternoon and slowly spread westward into
the evening as cool, moist air arrives. Thursday and Friday will
be cooler and cloudy with the potential for rain. Over the weekend
we heat back up, but will finally be in a monsoon like pattern
with a least slight chance for showers and storms each afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1225 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Today has turned out to be another warm, dry, and somewhat breezy
day as the region is sandwiched between a long wave trough over
the Pacific Northwest and a sizzling ridge across the eastern half
of the country. We will continue to be under general southwest
flow through Wednesday afternoon as this pattern holds. Expect
temps to surge again into the triple digits for the lowlands
Wednesday afternoon. This has prompted one last Heat Advisory for
Wednesday for the El Paso metro and lower valley. But big changes
are on the way.

A developing tropical feature in the western Gulf of Mexico will
come ashore this evening as a inverted wave and continue westwards
into northern Mexico over the next several days. This feature will
also be drawing plentiful moisture up the Rio Grande Valley and
should start arriving here later Wednesday and remain in place
into the weekend.

Initially, sfc flow should shift to the southeast by about midday
Wednesday across far eastern zones. This will begin the transport
of moist air into the region. Initially, higher dew points will
reach the Sacramento mountains by mid-afternoon. Model soundings
indicate good instability over the mountains with CAPE values
ranging from 750-1000 J/kg and LI`s progressively becoming
negative. As such, thunderstorms will likely begin to fire over
the Sacramento mountains Wednesday afternoon. In addition to the
instability, there will be plenty of shear (40-45 kts) to help a
few of the storms become severe. Damaging downburst and sizable
hail will accompany the stronger storms.

By early evening the moist push should have reached the
Continental Divide with precipitable water values in excess of an
inch extending as far west as the Rio Grande valley. Thunderstorm
activity will continue to overspread the region throughout the
evening with a continued threat for wind and hail as well as
locally heavy rainfall.

The deeper moisture will remain over the area Thursday and Friday,
but we should loose much of the instability. While an isolated
storm will remain possible, the primary focus for these days will
be clouds and much cooler than normal temps along with scattered
mainly light rain showers. By the weekend ridging aloft will
return to the Desert Southwest. While this will allow for a return
to rather warm summer temps, enough moisture will linger under
the ridge to set up a more typical monsoon-like pattern. Thus a
few widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will
also be possible over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Generally VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with SKC.
Surface winds west AOB 8 knots. After 15Z from the Rio Grande Valley
east...winds becoming southeast 8-12 knots and increasing southeast
15-25G35 knots after 00Z. West of the Rio Grand Valley...south 8012
knots and increasing southeast 12-17G30 knots by the end of the
period. TAF notes: KELP/KLRU both could see an evening thunderstorm
but too small a chance at this time. Also strong southeast winds at
KELP may eventually need an AWW for Wed evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1225 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Near-critical fire danger continues this evening with southwest
winds 10 to 20 mph and min RH 5-12%. Winds will diminish some
during the overnight hours. Meanwhile active fires in LNF will
burn hottest on the northeast flanks where further growth is
likely to continue into the late evening hours.

Pattern change expected in the days ahead as moisture arrives
from the southeast increasing humidity, rain chances, and cloud
coverage Thursday through Saturday. Wednesday`s storm chance will
be limited to eastern Otero and Hudspeth Counties. Strong outflows
from these storms will pose a risk of sudden wind shifts and
erratic fire behavior along active fire lines during the afternoon
and evening hours. Temperatures will be much cooler
Thursday/Friday under ESE flows and Good ventilation. Min RH will
be much more favorable. Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be
expected each afternoon, with the best chance for wetting rains
over LNF and east of the Rio Grande Valley. Monsoon season well
underway next week with continued daily storm chances over the
high terrain and seasonably hot temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  74 104  75  86 /   0  20  40  50
Sierra Blanca            66  95  66  78 /   0  30  50  70
Las Cruces               68 103  72  86 /   0  10  40  40
Alamogordo               66 100  66  88 /   0  20  40  50
Cloudcroft               52  76  49  61 /   0  30  50  70
Truth or Consequences    68  99  71  85 /   0  10  40  30
Silver City              61  92  64  83 /   0   0  30  30
Deming                   62 101  69  86 /   0   0  40  30
Lordsburg                64 100  70  91 /   0   0  20  20
West El Paso Metro       71 103  72  86 /   0  20  40  50
Dell City                65  98  67  81 /   0  30  50  70
Fort Hancock             66 104  68  85 /   0  30  40  70
Loma Linda               66  93  65  78 /   0  20  40  60
Fabens                   67 105  72  87 /   0  20  40  60
Santa Teresa             65 100  69  85 /   0  10  40  40
White Sands HQ           73 100  74  85 /   0  20  40  50
Jornada Range            64 100  67  86 /   0  10  40  40
Hatch                    62 103  68  88 /   0  10  40  40
Columbus                 69 101  72  88 /   0   0  40  30
Orogrande                66  99  69  83 /   0  20  40  50
Mayhill                  55  85  54  68 /   0  40  50  80
Mescalero                56  87  54  73 /   0  30  60  70
Timberon                 53  85  51  69 /   0  30  50  70
Winston                  55  90  57  79 /   0   0  30  40
Hillsboro                64  96  66  84 /   0   0  40  40
Spaceport                60  99  64  86 /   0  10  40  40
Lake Roberts             57  92  61  84 /   0   0  30  30
Hurley                   58  95  64  82 /   0   0  30  20
Cliff                    57 101  64  93 /   0   0  20  20
Mule Creek               62  94  67  89 /   0   0  20  10
Faywood                  62  95  64  83 /   0   0  40  30
Animas                   62 100  69  91 /   0   0  20  10
Hachita                  62  99  68  89 /   0   0  30  20
Antelope Wells           62  98  69  91 /   0   0  20  20
Cloverdale               62  94  68  88 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 6 AM MDT Thursday for
     TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher