811
FXUS64 KEPZ 151719
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1119 AM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 338 AM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Sub-tropical moisture will persist over the area through Tuesday,
resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms. The best chance
for rain will be north and west of Las Cruces today and again
Monday, with the rain chances spreading east across the Rio Grande
Valley Monday night. The moisture begins receding east on
Tuesday, but a slight chance of thunderstorms will exist east of
the Rio Grande Valley. The rest of the work week into the the
weekend will remain dry but temperatures will drop to just above
normal levels.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 338 AM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024

WV imagery shows ex TS Ileana now dissipated over Mexican
Chihuahuan Desert with her moisture mostly over southern and
eastern Texas. A modest portion of moisture that was north of
Ileana remains in place over eastern Arizona and western New
Mexico. This moisture will continue to fuel rain chances over the
next 2-3 days. Meanwhile, strong Pacific upper low has moved over
Vancouver Island and will continue to dig south and deepen
slightly, being located over northern California tonight.

For today and Monday...southwest flow ahead of the upper low will
produce series of weak short waves that traverse across New Mexico
and help to kick off showers/thunderstorms through tonight with
remnant moisture. GFS/NAM12/ECMWF and several hi-res models all in
good agreement keeping POPs mainly north and west of Las Cruces
this afternoon and night where instability and best synoptic
forcing are. Overnight showers may persist but mostly west of
Deming. On Monday with the upper low moving over the Great Basin,
moisture will begin to spread east. Showers/thunderstorms mainly
west of the Rio Grande Valley in the morning/afternoon but by late
afternoon or early evening the chances of rain should spread east
over most of remainder of CWA. Slow warming at mid levels will
not help lapse rates, but models still showing decent DCAPE values
and dewpoint depressions today and Monday for some strong wind
gust threat. PWs well above normal suggest some heavy rain/flood
potential. Storm motion relatively slow today could aid in some
flooding, with the Gila/Black Range the main worry. Storm motion
increases Monday so flood threat less likely. Temperatures will
remain well above normal.

Tuesday...upper low over Great Basin begins lifting out over the
northern Rockies with main trough rotating across New Mexico and
forcing the remaining moisture east. Look for some morning showers
still possible in the west, but then the chance of
showers/thunderstorms will move to the Rio Grande Valley early
afternoon and then the far eastern CWA by late afternoon.

Wednesday and beyond...drier air moving in will reform dry-line
just east of the CWA. Models show typical undulating dance of the
dry-line just east of the CWA through Friday. Westward
protrusions could aid in a few showers over the far eastern CWA,
but left out any mention of this for now. Second upper low rapidly
digs south down the west coast and to near the Four Corners
Friday. This upper low and trough will bring drier air into CWA
and kick the dry-line further east through Sunday. High
temperatures will fall to near seasonable levels.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 AM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024

P6SM SCT-BKN090-110 with isolated to scattered 3-5SM -TSRA
BKN060-080 mainly west and north of Deming. Think best chance for
storms at any of the terminals is KTCS where VCTS is mentioned.
Isolated showers will continue through the night near the AZ
border while skies in the far southeast become SKC-FEW100. Winds
generally south to southeast 5-15KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 338 AM MDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Some sub-tropical moisture persisting across the fire zones
through Tuesday. Scattered showers/thunderstorms this
afternoon/tonight mostly north and west of Las Cruces. More
showers/thunderstorms Monday slowly spreading east across most of
the zones. Strong and erratic winds possible near these storms.
Temperatures remaining above normal. Drying out Wednesday into the
weekend, with mostly clear skies and seasonable temperatures.
Breezy afternoons Thursday and Friday could lead to some elevated
fire conditions, mainly lower elevations.

Min RHs: Lowlands 20-30% through Tuesday dropping to 15-20%
Wednesday through Friday. Mountains 30-45% through Tuesday
dropping to 20-30% Wednesday through Friday. Vent rates good-very
good today and Monday, then very good-excellent Tuesday through
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  68  94  70  94 /  10  10  30  20
Sierra Blanca            62  90  63  88 /   0   0  20  20
Las Cruces               64  91  65  91 /  10  20  30  10
Alamogordo               62  89  63  89 /  20  20  30  30
Cloudcroft               46  69  47  70 /  20  30  30  60
Truth or Consequences    62  88  65  88 /  20  20  20  10
Silver City              62  81  63  80 /  30  40  30  20
Deming                   63  88  64  90 /  20  30  30  10
Lordsburg                64  82  63  86 /  30  40  30  10
West El Paso Metro       68  92  70  91 /  10  10  30  20
Dell City                60  93  62  93 /  10  10  20  20
Fort Hancock             63  95  64  94 /  10  10  20  20
Loma Linda               64  87  65  86 /  10  10  20  20
Fabens                   64  94  65  92 /  10  10  20  20
Santa Teresa             66  91  67  89 /  10  20  30  10
White Sands HQ           65  91  66  90 /  10  10  30  20
Jornada Range            61  91  64  88 /  20  20  30  20
Hatch                    63  93  64  90 /  20  20  30  10
Columbus                 66  88  67  90 /  20  30  30  10
Orogrande                66  90  67  88 /  10  10  30  20
Mayhill                  51  82  52  83 /  20  30  20  50
Mescalero                50  84  51  81 /  20  30  30  60
Timberon                 49  80  50  78 /  20  20  20  40
Winston                  51  80  53  82 /  20  40  20  20
Hillsboro                58  85  63  87 /  20  40  30  20
Spaceport                58  88  62  88 /  20  20  30  20
Lake Roberts             50  81  51  80 /  30  60  30  20
Hurley                   58  84  59  84 /  20  40  30  10
Cliff                    57  83  57  86 /  30  50  30  20
Mule Creek               53  81  53  80 /  30  40  30  10
Faywood                  59  85  60  84 /  20  40  30  10
Animas                   66  84  65  88 /  30  40  20  10
Hachita                  63  88  64  87 /  20  30  30  10
Antelope Wells           62  84  63  88 /  20  30  20   0
Cloverdale               59  79  60  82 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...26-Grzywacz