342
FXUS64 KEPZ 171920
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
120 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 120 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Breezy southwest winds will keep temperatures warm and push
moisture to our east through the rest of the week. Slight rain
chances over the Sacramento Mountains on Friday before another
Pacific low brings clear and mild weather next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Upper low centered over Yellowstone this evening with the trough
axis swinging across the Southern Rockies. Winds have been breezy
out of the southwest today with gusts in the 25-35 mph range
across southern New Mexico. Vort max rotating around the system
will aid in thunderstorm development across portions of eastern
New Mexico today and perhaps the far eastern fringes of Hudspeth
County TX. Much drier air exists behind the Pacific boundary
which will quickly erode moisture along the Rio Grande valley this
evening and bring an end to rain chances area wide through the
middle part of the work week. Winds will also settle down after
sunset tonight.

Slight cool down on Wednesday with lowland highs in the lower
90s, however southwest flow will keep us slightly above normal for
mid-September each day into the weekend. Almost Spring-like
weather pattern with a moisture boundary fixed east of the I-25
corridor and sustained southwest flow across the US Southwest
keeping it at bay. Global models do suggest slight intrusions
Thursday and Friday which may allow for some very spotty storm
chances, mostly for the Sacramento Mountains. Overall, rain
chances for the next 7 days are slim and focused east of the Rio
Grande.

Good agreement in another Pacific low sweeping across the Central
Rockies on Saturday, with dry air at the base of the system and
clear, mild weather through next weekend. While temperatures won`t
change too much (El Paso`s high remains 88-92 degrees), it will
feel more fall-like especially during the overnight hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Strong southwest flow aloft leading to breezy winds this afternoon
as dry Pacific front moves through. Isolated TSRA across E NM this
evening with no impacts to local terminals. Surface winds 250-280
at 12-18 knots. Peak gusts to 30 knots between 22-02Z timed with
the hottest time of the evening where mixing is highest. Winds
will gradually veer to the WNW and decrease to 05-10 knots
overnight. Skies generally FEW-SCT080-100.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 120 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Lighter southwest flow Wednesday and Thursday with 20-ft speeds
10 to 15 mph each afternoon. Good to Very Good smoke ventilation
with transport to the NE. Mostly clear skies with no rain chances
through Thursday. Midday RH 15-25%. Higher moisture will exist to
the east, keeping RH higher over Lincoln National Forest. Friday
and Saturday look to be more breezy as another Pacific low crosses
the Central Rockies.

Fuel conditions remain drier than normal for mid-September with
drought status still in place. The rest of September looks mostly
dry and warm for southern New Mexico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  70  93  69  96 /   0   0  10   0
Sierra Blanca            64  89  65  91 /  20   0   0   0
Las Cruces               62  90  62  93 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               60  90  62  93 /   0   0   0  10
Cloudcroft               46  67  48  71 /  10  10  10  10
Truth or Consequences    58  88  58  90 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              53  80  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   57  89  58  92 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                57  86  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       68  90  68  93 /   0   0  10   0
Dell City                64  94  64  97 /  10  10  10   0
Fort Hancock             66  95  68  97 /  10   0   0   0
Loma Linda               62  85  64  88 /  10  10  10   0
Fabens                   66  93  66  94 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             64  89  63  91 /   0   0  10   0
White Sands HQ           66  90  67  92 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            60  89  61  92 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    57  90  58  93 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 62  89  62  91 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                62  88  62  91 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  51  80  53  84 /  10  10  10  10
Mescalero                49  78  51  82 /   0  10  10  10
Timberon                 50  77  52  80 /  10  10  10  10
Winston                  45  81  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                54  86  55  89 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                55  88  56  91 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             47  80  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   52  83  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    50  88  50  90 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               52  80  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  55  83  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   57  88  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  57  87  56  89 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           55  88  55  90 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               54  81  54  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt