Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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364 FXUS64 KEPZ 240541 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1141 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 130 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024 Our very dry and warm weather will continue over the holiday weekend and into most of next week. Breezy afternoon winds will continue each day through Sunday, with elevated fire conditions continuing. Saturday looks to be the windiest day of the bunch, so fire conditions will likely rise to critical. By Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, high pressure builds in over much of our area, giving us our first possible heat wave. Triple digit temperatures are possible across the desert areas from Tuesday onward. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 130 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024 Currently WV imagery shows very dry southwest flow aloft continuing over the CWA. Main upper low now over Wyoming with weak detached trough moving across the southern CWA. At the surface, dry-line which had butted up against the Sacs yesterday began drifting east again-just east of Roswell-Carlsbad line this morning and is now back into the Texas Panhandle. No sight to the end of this streak, as breezy afternoons continue each day through Sunday. This will keep fire conditions elevated, with Saturday looking the windiest day. Hence expect critical fire conditions and the Fire Watch will likely be updated to Red Flag Warning soon. Winds diminish some after Sunday, but high pressure aloft over central America builds northward over Mexico and the CWA. Thus we could very well begin a heat wave Tuesday into next weekend. NBM MOS high temps show 98 to 99. If you look at the 90 and 95 percentile numbers--at El Paso it increases to 104 to 106. So triple digits are likely across the lowlands much of next week. Models continue to show dry-line teasing the far eastern margins of the CWA Tuesday and Wednesday, but intrusions only brief and likely not impactful. Fortunately, for fire concerns, no significant winds are expected during this heat. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024 We will have VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Most of the low end gusty winds have dropped off, except for KELP where mountain downslope winds will continue for a few more hours. There are some high clouds moving across the region, but in general our ceilings our unlimited and that will continue through the day on Friday into Friday night. The gusty winds look to return for Friday afternoon, but they will stay a little lower than we saw on Thursday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 130 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024 Fire concerns remain elevated through Sunday, with Saturday the windiest and likely needing a Watch upgrade to RFW. Winds Monday and beyond diminishing some, but temperatures heat up so fire conditions likely remaining elevated. Min RHs: Lowlands 4-8% through Tuesday. Mountains 7-12% through Tuesday. Vent rates very good to excellent through Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 64 94 65 95 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 58 89 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 56 92 57 92 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 52 90 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 40 69 41 70 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 55 90 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 46 81 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 51 91 52 91 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 52 89 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 60 91 61 92 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 55 93 53 93 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 57 95 55 97 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 56 85 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 59 94 59 95 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 55 90 56 91 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 63 91 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 51 89 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 51 92 54 91 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 52 91 58 90 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 54 89 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 47 82 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 44 79 45 81 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 43 77 43 80 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 44 84 45 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 50 88 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 49 89 51 87 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 43 83 43 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 45 85 46 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 39 88 36 85 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 35 83 33 82 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 48 84 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 50 89 51 89 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 52 90 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 51 90 52 88 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 50 83 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM MDT Saturday for TXZ055-056. NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM MDT Saturday for NMZ110>113. && $$ FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt