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Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 142050
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
250 PM MDT Tue Aug 14 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorms will mainly be focused over Southwestern New Mexico
and the Sacramento Mountains over the next few days, with just
slight chance elsewhere. However, a pattern shift aloft will bring
in more widespread moisture by Thursday, with thunderstorm
coverage expected to increase across southern New Mexico and Far
West Texas through the weekend. Temperatures will remain a few
degrees above normal through Wednesday, then drop to near-normal
by Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The subtropical ridge is centered over northeastern AZ this
afternoon, and has managed to bring in some recycled moisture
aloft over most of New Mexico, while a tongue of drier air remains
in place over parts of West Texas. At the surface, low level
moisture is variable...with mid and upper-50s over some areas, and
pockets of mid-40s elsewhere. The drier air isn`t very consistent,
but is most common over south-central New Mexico.

We had an 18Z RAOB thanks to a software upgrade, and the sounding
was surprisingly healthy with a nearly 1600 J/Kg SBCAPE and -5
J/Kg CIN. However, modifying the sounding for lower-50s dewpoints
really ramps up the CIN, and as a result, I couldn`t justify going
with much higher than a 10-PoP for most of the lowlands outside of
SW New Mexico (downstream of the Gila) for the remainder of the
afternoon and evening.

The ridge will break down on Wednesday with its ill-defined center
briefly redeveloping over central Texas on Thursday. This will
allow southerly flow to develop in the mid-levels (a rarity this
Monsoon season!) on Wednesday. However, slightly warmer air aloft
and continued marginal low level moisture will limit instability
outside of SW New Mexico and the Sacramento Mountains again. So
while tomorrow should still see an "uptick" in activity, it will
mostly benefit areas outside of the central lowlands.

On Thursday, mid-level flow will shift more to westerly,
spreading the moisture around a bit more. NAM and GFS both suggest
PW values of 1.30-1.40 around much of the area, with improving
instability. Expect another "uptick" in thunderstorm coverage. A
little concerned about localized flash flooding as well since
steering flow looks to just about collapse.

Heading into Friday, the ridge will begin to redevelop along the
AZ/NM border, with our now all-too-familiar N to NE flow
redeveloping over the area. However, we should still have enough
recycled moisture in place to keep things active for at least
another day or two, which takes us through Saturday.

Sunday could also be interesting as a westerly trough will clip
the area, which could help organize thunderstorms a bit. But this
system will tend to dry us out aloft Sunday night. A backdoor cold
front looks to drop into the area on Monday, boosting low level
moisture, but with the ridge remaining parked over the Great
Basin, drier northerly flow aloft will persist.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 15/00Z-16/00Z...
VFR conditions through period. High pressure aloft will limit TSRA
to mainly mountain areas with a few adjacent lowland areas also
impacted between 00Z-04Z and again between 18z-24Z. Skies will be
FEW-SCT060-080 SCT-BKN150-200. Winds generally west to south at 5 to
15KTS except near thunderstorms.  Wind gusts to 40KTS also possible
near storms.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper level high pressure will limit thunderstorm development to
mainly mountain locales and a few nearby lowland areas this
afternoon through early afternoon Wednesday. A moderate surge of
moisture will increase chances for thunderstorms area wide,
starting late Wednesday afternoon and evening,continuing through
next weekend. Day time temperatures will be few degrees above
normal today and Wednesday before cooling back to near seasonal
averages for the remainder of the period. Minimum relative
humidity values will stay above 20 percent most areas with
moderate overnight recoveries. Vent rates will range from good to
very good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 75  95  74  93 /  10   0  10  10
Sierra Blanca           70  91  69  91 /  10  10  10  20
Las Cruces              69  93  69  92 /  10   0  20  20
Alamogordo              69  94  68  93 /  10  20  20  20
Cloudcroft              53  70  56  69 /  20  50  30  50
Truth or Consequences   70  93  70  92 /  10  10  30  20
Silver City             61  82  61  84 /  30  40  30  40
Deming                  68  91  68  92 /  10   0  20  20
Lordsburg               67  88  67  90 /  40  10  40  30
West El Paso Metro      74  94  73  93 /  10   0  10  10
Dell City               71  97  69  95 /  10   0  10  20
Fort Hancock            72  95  70  95 /  10  20  10  20
Loma Linda              68  91  69  89 /  10  10  10  20
Fabens                  70  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  20
Santa Teresa            72  94  71  92 /  10   0  20  10
White Sands HQ          70  94  70  92 /  10   0  20  20
Jornada Range           69  94  67  93 /  10   0  20  20
Hatch                   70  95  69  94 /  10   0  20  20
Columbus                70  91  69  92 /  10   0  20  20
Orogrande               72  94  71  92 /  10   0  20  10
Mayhill                 59  81  59  79 /  10  30  30  40
Mescalero               59  81  60  79 /  20  50  30  40
Timberon                58  79  59  78 /  10  30  20  40
Winston                 59  85  59  84 /  10  30  40  40
Hillsboro               65  90  66  90 /  10  20  30  40
Spaceport               69  93  68  93 /  10   0  20  20
Lake Roberts            55  82  56  83 /  20  50  40  50
Hurley                  62  84  62  85 /  20  30  30  40
Cliff                   62  88  63  88 /  40  40  40  40
Mule Creek              63  87  64  86 /  40  50  40  40
Faywood                 65  86  65  87 /  20  20  30  30
Animas                  68  86  67  89 /  40  30  40  30
Hachita                 67  88  66  90 /  20  10  30  30
Antelope Wells          66  83  64  87 /  20  50  40  40
Cloverdale              63  79  62  85 /  40  50  50  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25-Hardiman / 04-Lundeen
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
