264
FXUS64 KEPZ 131145
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
445 AM MST Mon Jan 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 440 AM MST Mon Jan 13 2025

 - Chilly, below normal temperatures will continue through
   Wednesday.

 - Warming Thursday through Saturday to seasonable temperatures.

 - Chance of rain lowlands, and snow in the mountains, on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM MST Mon Jan 13 2025

Small upper low over southern Utah will cross the Four Corners and
sweep across northern New Mexico this afternoon. Meanwhile another
short wave, associated with speed max over Montana will quickly
follow in the foot steps of the first low, moving across northern
New Mexico Tuesday morning. These features should have not much
impact on our area, though I did leave low mountain POPs in.
Otherwise, dry through Thursday with temperatures ever so slowly
warming up under the persistent north/northwest flow aloft.

Upper low now over NoCal drops south/southwest and becomes cut-off
from flow. Models continue to retrograde out over the Pacific
Ocean, eventually becoming the base of a Rex pattern ridge. The
low eventually gets ejected out, over Arizona on Friday, with the
low drawing up some sub- tropical moisture with the help of the
sub-tropical jet. Both GFS/ECMWF have been consistent with this,
resulting in a chance of showers Friday. Snow levels higher than
they have been recently, around 6000` north to 7000` south.
Temperatures will be back to near normal. Both models continue to
also show secondary low rapidly dropping south over northern New
Mexico Saturday. This will allow a back door and much colder air
back in by Saturday night and Sunday. Chances for precip are
fairly small, but any that does develop will be snow for all
areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 444 AM MST Mon Jan 13 2025

VFR conditions through the period with SKC-SCT250. From KTCS-KALM
north...SCT-BKN060 BKN120 til around 20Z then diminishing. Surface
winds variable AOB 7 knots this morning, becoming south/southeast
7-10 knots this afternoon, and the back to variable AOB 7 knots
after 03Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 301 AM MST Mon Jan 13 2025

Very low fire weather concerns through Thursday as winds remain
fairly light and humidities higher than normal. Winds increase
Friday and Saturday and humidities drop a bit, so fire conditions
will become elevated both these days. The fire zones could also
see some showers Friday.

Min RHs: Lowlands 25-35% through Thursday, decreasing to 18-25%
Friday and Saturday. Mountains 30-45% through Thursday, decreasing
to 25-35% Friday and Saturday. Vent rates poor-fair through
Thursday, becoming very good-excellent Friday and Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  53  30  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            50  22  51  26 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               50  25  52  27 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               48  19  51  21 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               31  12  34  14 /  10   0  10   0
Truth or Consequences    44  23  45  23 /  10   0   0   0
Silver City              43  22  47  23 /   0   0  10   0
Deming                   50  23  51  24 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                49  19  51  22 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       52  31  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                50  20  53  22 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             57  21  57  23 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               46  26  47  28 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   55  25  56  27 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             51  25  52  27 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           50  28  51  30 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            48  18  51  20 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    50  21  52  23 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 50  25  52  28 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                49  22  50  24 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  41  14  44  16 /  10   0  10   0
Mescalero                40  13  44  16 /  10   0  10   0
Timberon                 39  12  44  15 /   0   0  10   0
Winston                  39  11  41  11 /  10   0  10   0
Hillsboro                44  20  46  22 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                46  19  48  20 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             45  17  47  18 /  10   0  10   0
Hurley                   45  18  47  20 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    49  12  55  13 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               45   8  50   9 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  44  22  47  24 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   52  19  54  21 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  50  19  51  22 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           53  21  51  22 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               48  26  49  28 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner