Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 090733
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
133 AM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023
...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 110 AM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023
The warm and dry trend continues throughout the period with a
steady increase in temperatures through next week. Breezy to windy
conditions will persist Sunday and Monday afternoon. The first 100
degree day in El Paso will likely occur towards the end of next
week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 AM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023
A fairly persistent pattern will set up through most of the
period with a low pressure system over the west coast and weak
ridging over the NM/TX border area. This will keep winds out of
the west and the area dry with no rain chances through this period
and potentially even longer than that. A weak shortwave trough
will push through today creating some mid to high clouds and
breezy conditions along the border area with some scattered virga
possible. Sunday the low pressure system over the west coast will
shift eastward increasing the pressure gradient and winds
throughout the area. Wind gusts over 30mph are possible west of
the Rio Grande and along the east slopes in the Tularosa Basin.
Winds decrease slightly Monday into Tuesday, but will still remain
breezy. Temperatures will start to increase this weekend as well,
reaching into the upper 90s for El Paso and into the 100s along
the Lower Rio Grand Valley.
A weak shortwave will push through Wednesday evening, which will
shift the pattern going into the late week and weekend. Upper
level ridging will start to build into the area Thursday, bringing
lighting winds and more heat with it. This ridging pattern will
likely be the best shot for El Paso to reach 100F, with 102F in
the official forecast for Thursday. This hot trend will last into
the weekend and will likely be the first multiple days of higher
heat we`ve seen this season. Heat related illnesses may be
possible and messaging for hydration and finding places to cool
off will need to start up this week. Low temperatures will not
drop below 70F either, so any break in the heat will be limited
late next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 PM MDT Thu Jun 8 2023
VFR conditions expected through the period. High clouds will be
moving in through the area. Winds will be generally below 10 kts
through 16-18Z. Tomorrow aft 18Z winds will increase again to
10-15kts with gusts 20-25kts.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 110 AM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023
Due to the dry conditions and RH values below 15% for most of the
period, there will be elevated fire weather conditions during the
afternoon with the breezy winds. Fire concerns will increase
Sunday to critical as the higher winds move into the area with
20ft winds in the high teens to low 20s, especially in the Gila
region. Lower ERC percentiles will the limiting factor for fire
conditions as winds and RH will reach Red Flag warning criteria
west of the Rio Grand Valley. A fire weather watch has been held
off for now, but trends will be monitored going into the weekend
for a possible Red Flag Warning Sunday. Monday the winds die down
slightly, with near critical fire weather conditions over the
area but will decrease even more into next week as winds weaken
even more.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 92 66 96 69 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 86 60 90 62 / 10 10 0 0
Las Cruces 89 59 94 63 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 88 57 92 60 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 66 44 68 47 / 10 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 87 57 91 60 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 76 52 83 54 / 10 0 0 0
Deming 86 52 93 56 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 83 53 91 56 / 10 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 88 63 93 66 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 92 57 94 60 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 93 61 97 63 / 10 0 0 0
Loma Linda 84 60 86 63 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 92 62 95 65 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 87 57 92 62 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 89 65 92 67 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 87 57 91 60 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 87 56 92 60 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 87 57 94 62 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 87 57 91 60 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 80 50 81 52 / 10 0 0 0
Mescalero 76 48 78 49 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 76 48 77 49 / 10 0 0 0
Winston 77 49 81 51 / 10 0 0 0
Hillsboro 84 54 88 58 / 0 0 0 0
Spaceport 87 54 91 57 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 78 47 83 50 / 10 0 0 0
Hurley 81 50 88 52 / 10 0 0 0
Cliff 85 42 91 45 / 10 0 0 0
Mule Creek 79 50 86 52 / 0 0 0 0
Faywood 81 54 87 55 / 10 0 0 0
Animas 85 53 91 55 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 84 54 91 57 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 85 54 91 55 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 80 54 85 55 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...01-Barham
LONG TERM....01-Barham
AVIATION...14-Bird