Area Forecast Discussion
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574
FXUS64 KEPZ 162336
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
536 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 533 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

 - Available monsoonal moisture and daytime heating will lead to
   daily rounds of afternoon and evening showers and
   thunderstorms, mainly west of the Divide through Wednesday then
   across the Borderland for the end of the week.

  -Impacts from storms include periods of heavy rainfall with
   localized flash flooding, mainly small hail, gusty outflow
   winds, and areas blowing dust.

 - Near normal high temperatures each day.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1107 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Aforementioned in previous forecast discussions, the upper level
flow regime will be fairly disorganized at the beginning of the
forecast period. Upper level jet stream and storm track remains well
to the north over Canada, as expected for this time of the year.
Regionally, upper level cutoff low over Baja and disorganized upper
level high over the Gulf Coast states will keep south/southeasterly
flow across the area. Meaning sufficient, slightly above average low
level moisture overlaying the Borderland Region. That being said,
with very little forcing and kinematics to offer over southern NM
and west TX, afternoon/evening shower and storm chances will
isolated to scattered in nature for today. Local/mesoscale
orographic forces will promote early afternoon convection over the
Sacramento Mtns and Gila Region. The greatest chances for storms
will be focused along and west of the Divide where slightly better
forcing and above average moisture content resides. That said, like
previous days the threat of flash flooding will be possible,
especially in an around recent burn scars. As the afternoon/evening
progresses, outflow interactions across the desert lowlands will
induce generally isolated convection, focused west of the RGV. Brief
heavy rain, gusty outflow winds, and pockets of blowing dust will be
the primary threats. High temperatures this afternoon will top out
in the middle to upper 90s across the desert lowlands.

Another generally quiet day in terms of thunderstorm activity for
tomorrow. The Monsoonal moisture plume will push slightly to the
east, focusing over areas along and east of the RGV, promoting
isolated to scattered afternoon/evening storm activity. High
temperatures on Thursday will be very similar to Wednesday. On
Friday, high pressure aloft over the Deep South will expand
westward, pushing the Monsoonal moisture plume back to the west.
With the focus for storm activity along and west of the RGV and
Sacramento Mtns. Again, if any storms develops in the vicinity of
recent burn scars, flash flooding will be possible.

The Monsoonal moisture fetch looks to remain in the vicinity of the
Borderland Region heading into the weekend and into next week. Daily
chances of thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the
period. Temperatures will remain at or slightly above the seasonal
average.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 533 PM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Generally VFR conditions are expected throughout the period with
SCT100-150 becoming FEW-SCT250 after dark. Winds will largely be
from the S to SW with speeds around 10 knots and a few gusts over
20 knots, especially tomorrow afternoon. ISO to SCT TSRA/SHRA is
expected to develop during the afternoon and evening hours (after
18z), but confidence on timing and impacts for individual TAF
sites is too low to include in this cycle.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1107 AM MDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Sufficient Monsoonal moisture remains in place across the area
through the period with daily chances of showers/storms. The
greatest focus for activity will shift each day, especially for
Thursday and Friday. The focus for convection for today will be
west of the RGV, east of the RGV on Thursday and then again back
to the west on Friday. With that being said, slight chances will
exist areawide Thursday and Friday.

Min RH values will be above critical thresholds areawide through
the period with high temperatures near normal. Winds will be
generally light at 7-15 mph. However, gusty and erratic outflow
winds will be possible in the vicinity of developing
thunderstorms. Slow storm motion will promote increasing threats
for flashing flooding, especially in and around recent burn scars.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  77  97  77  96 /  20  20  50  40
Sierra Blanca            69  89  69  90 /  20  60  50  50
Las Cruces               70  94  70  93 /  30  20  50  40
Alamogordo               70  95  70  93 /  10  30  30  50
Cloudcroft               52  71  52  69 /  10  60  30  80
Truth or Consequences    70  94  70  93 /  30  40  50  60
Silver City              61  85  63  86 /  50  60  60  80
Deming                   70  96  71  96 /  40  30  60  50
Lordsburg                66  91  68  93 /  50  50  60  60
West El Paso Metro       75  95  76  95 /  20  20  50  40
Dell City                72  95  72  94 /  10  30  20  30
Fort Hancock             76  96  76  97 /  30  50  50  50
Loma Linda               67  89  69  88 /  10  30  40  50
Fabens                   74  96  74  96 /  20  20  40  30
Santa Teresa             72  94  74  94 /  30  20  60  40
White Sands HQ           74  95  74  93 /  20  30  50  60
Jornada Range            69  94  70  93 /  20  40  50  60
Hatch                    70  96  71  96 /  30  30  60  60
Columbus                 73  95  74  96 /  40  20  60  40
Orogrande                70  93  71  91 /  10  30  30  50
Mayhill                  58  81  57  79 /  10  60  30  70
Mescalero                58  82  57  81 /  10  60  40  80
Timberon                 57  80  56  78 /  10  50  30  70
Winston                  57  85  58  85 /  40  60  50  80
Hillsboro                65  93  65  92 /  40  50  60  60
Spaceport                67  94  69  93 /  20  40  50  60
Lake Roberts             55  86  57  87 /  60  70  60  80
Hurley                   63  89  63  89 /  50  60  50  70
Cliff                    63  92  66  94 /  60  60  50  70
Mule Creek               60  87  63  91 /  70  60  50  60
Faywood                  64  89  66  89 /  40  50  60  70
Animas                   67  91  68  93 /  50  50  60  70
Hachita                  67  91  68  93 /  50  40  60  60
Antelope Wells           66  90  68  91 /  60  50  60  70
Cloverdale               62  84  65  87 /  60  60  60  80

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown