Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 082110
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
210 PM MST Mon Mar 8 2021
.SYNOPSIS...
Windy conditions and mild temperatures will be the rule through
the next several days. Patchy areas of blowing dust will be
possible each afternoon, especially Interstate 10 near Lordsburg.
A minor chance for light precipitation will reside across the Gila
Tuesday afternoon and overnight, then dry until the next storm
system arrives late Friday into the first half of the weekend.
Mountain rain and snow showers, in addition to more winds, will be
the primary threats.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...
Satellite imagery shows persistent moisture plume extending from
south of Hawaii across the CWA associated with sub-tropical jet
stream. There will be several short waves associated with strong jet-
lets over the next several days. This period only looks at the first
two however. The first surge came through this morning and has left
considerable high cloudiness in its wake this afternoon. Broken to
overcast higher clouds will continue through tonight. Bases may
lower some late tonight but dry boundary layer (dewpoints in the
20s), should allow some virga at best. Mountain zones could see a
stray shower with added orographic lift, but left POPs out of all
zones for now.
The second surge moves in early Tuesday morning associated with a
130kt jet-let. This should thicken cloud cover up again. Though
dewpoints don`t increase much, atmosphere will have had some time to
moisten down, so did put low POPs in for the Gila and far west.
Again virga could be common around the rest of the area. Main impact
however will be winds. Mid level winds in the mix down region look
to be about 30-45 mph, so despite surface pressure gradient not real
strong, daytime heating should be able to mix down those winds. Will
upgrade Fire Weather Watch to Red Flag Warning, and also issue a
Wind Advisory for most zones west of the Rio Grande. Models have
been consistent in showing weaker gradient east of the Rio Grande. I
could still see east slope areas (El Paso, WSMR Hdqtrs) reaching
advisory criteria due to downsloping but that`s beyond this period.
Blowing dust could also be a problem, as the Wilcox Playa has been
throwing off a lot of dust lately. Included blowing dust in the
grids; may need a Blowing Dust Advisory later.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Slow downward trend in temps after Wednesday, with near 70
Thursday, and 60 to 70 degrees Friday, and cooler temps during the
weekend.
Strong and consistent winds @500mb, consequent of an approaching
deep ULL, will result in persistent lee troughing to the north
and northeast of southern NM. Resultant pressure gradients, in
addition to mixing into brisk winds aloft, make for a breezy to
windy period Wednesday through Friday, especially Luna and Hidalgo
counties. Patchy blowing dust will be possible each afternoon
given the SW wind direction, with Lordsburg and adjacent regions
along I-10 most susceptible to this threat. Fire weather concerns
will be high, with more details below.
Mostly dry conditions are expected out ahead of the next system
for the weekend, but there is a chance for a few rain showers
developing, and surviving, in the Gila Tuesday evening. Not
expecting a whole lot given the overall dry air in place, only
minor accums. The aforementioned system for the weekend, an
anomalous upper level low, will slowly eject east after riding CA
for several days, (slow moving nature of this system is partly due
to the ridging to the NW of the system). Despite this favorable
configuration and storm track, moisture will be minor through the
column and as a result only a 10 to 20 POP chance remains most
areas Fri night through Sat night. Area mtns have the best chance
to see rain/snow accumulations, could perhaps even see a few
inches in the mtns, but lowland rain chances looks sparse at this
time. Regardless, the front associated with this system will move
through, cooling the area, with more breezy to windy conditions on
Saturday. The pattern looks pretty messy thereafter as another
system dives to the south out of the Pac NW.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions expected through the period. SCT180 BKN/OVC250
with layers to 350. After 12Z...isold BKN080 -SHRA, mainly over
the Gila Region/Black Range. Surface winds southwest 8-12KTS gusts
to 20KTS. South winds 12-15KTS gusts to 25KTS Rio Grande Valley
vicinity of Sierra County Lakes. All winds diminishing after 03Z
to southwest 5-8KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A mostly dry forecast in store for the forecast period--with
winds being the main concern. Could be a few, mostly mountain
showers Tuesday. Winds will increase and likely be a concern into
the weekend. For Tuesday, upgraded Fire Watch to Red Flag Warning.
Strongest winds likely west of the Rio Grande. Mountain areas
will see RHs a bit too high so limited to the lowland zones out
west. Winds again a problem Wednesday so have gone ahead and
issued a Red Flag Warning for all lowland zones as stronger winds
now likely even east of the Rio Grande. Winds probably even
approaching or exceeding Red Flag criteria lowlands Thursday
through Saturday. Pacific upper low sweeps across the area Friday
night and Saturday. Some showers possible mainly north and west of
El Paso. Showers turning to light snow mountain zones by
Saturday.
Min RHs: Lowlands 8-15% through Friday, then 12-18% Sat/Sun.
Mountains 15-25% through Friday, then 25-35% Sat/Sun.
Vent rates mostly excellent into the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 53 80 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 47 78 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 49 79 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
Alamogordo 47 78 45 73 / 0 0 0 0
Cloudcroft 36 54 34 49 / 0 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 49 76 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
Silver City 46 64 38 58 / 0 10 10 0
Deming 45 77 38 71 / 0 0 0 0
Lordsburg 46 74 35 67 / 0 10 10 0
West El Paso Metro 54 80 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
Dell City 42 79 45 78 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 46 82 48 82 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 48 73 48 71 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 48 81 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 49 79 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 50 78 51 74 / 0 0 0 0
Jornada Range 45 76 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
Hatch 48 77 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
Columbus 51 79 44 74 / 0 0 0 0
Orogrande 45 78 46 74 / 0 0 0 0
Mayhill 42 68 41 61 / 0 0 0 0
Mescalero 40 64 36 59 / 0 0 0 0
Timberon 37 64 35 59 / 0 0 0 0
Winston 37 66 32 61 / 0 10 10 0
Hillsboro 45 72 40 66 / 0 10 10 0
Spaceport 46 75 41 69 / 0 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 41 63 33 58 / 0 10 10 0
Hurley 41 68 33 63 / 0 10 10 0
Cliff 41 70 32 65 / 0 10 10 0
Mule Creek 38 66 34 58 / 0 10 10 0
Faywood 46 69 38 63 / 0 10 10 0
Animas 47 77 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
Hachita 47 77 38 71 / 0 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 48 77 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
Cloverdale 48 69 41 64 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MST Wednesday for NMZ111-112.
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MST Tuesday for NMZ111-112.
Wind Advisory from noon to 6 PM MST Tuesday for NMZ402>411.
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MST Wednesday for TXZ055-056.
&&
$$
17-Hefner/35-DeLizio/17