Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 031052
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
452 AM MDT Mon Aug 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A sort of low-grade monsoon pattern will continue with
temperatures running a few degrees above normal, and coverage of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are little below
normal through the next several days, as an upper level ridge
migrates over the area. This ridge will shift to the east later in
the week, allowing some moisture over Mexico to push northwards
into parts of southwestern New Mexico, increasing thunderstorm
coverage Thursday and Friday. Thunderstorms will start to diminish
in coverage again by the weekend, but may be more focused on the
Rio Grande and points east.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Today and tonight...
The upper-level high over AZ will begin to build eastward, over us,
and PWAT values will nudge downward ever so slightly. Afternoon
dewpoints are also expected to fall below 50 in the lowlands. Thus,
thunderstorms will mainly favor mountains with scattered coverage.
Given highs topping around 100 again and meager CAPE values around
500 J/kg, a few storms will be possible in the lowlands though most
locations will stay dry. A few storms may produce severe caliber
winds given the wide temperature-dewpoint spread greater than 50
degrees. All activity is expected to gradually dissipate after
sunset with most, if not all, activity gone around midnight.

34-Brown

&&

.LONG TERM...
By Tuesday the subtropical ridge, fairly weak, will be centered
close to ELP, with a sharp trough over California pulling drier
air into southern Arizona. We will be left with recycled mid-level
moisture trapped under the ridge, and limited low-level moisture,
yielding PW values of only around 1.00 to 1.10 inches. This will
still be sufficient for scattered high elevation thunderstorms in
the afternoon with isolated lowland storms in the evenings through
Wednesday. Highly localized heavy rainfall will be possible given
weak steering flow despite the limited moisture.

The ridge will shift to the east by Thursday, allowing some
moisture from the Sierra Madres to work into southwestern New
Mexico, leading to an increase in available moisture and
thunderstorm coverage west of the Rio Grande Thursday and Friday
afternoon and evening. Longer range models are in fair agreement
on the ridge migrating back to southern New Mexico by the weekend.
While overall thunderstorm coverage may diminish, it may be more
centered on the Rio Grande valley and eastern areas of the CWA.

25-Hardiman

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper level high over AZ will begin to nudge eastward, increasing
its influence over NM and far W TX. This pattern combined with
modest drying aloft and at the surface will lead to a reduction in
thunderstorm coverage with mountain areas favored with scattered
coverage. Few to isolated storms will be possible in the lowlands,
but most lowland locations will stay dry. A few thunderstorms will
be capable of strong outflow winds. Temperatures are expected to be
as hot or a degree or two hotter than yesterday, and this will lead
to min RH values near or just above critical levels in the lowlands.
Winds outside of thunderstorm influences will generally be light
leading to good vent rates west and poor vent rates east. The drying
and warming trend will continue for Tuesday and Wednesday with a
further decrease in thunderstorm chances expected each day. Modest
moisture return for Thursday and beyond will bring a reduction in
heat and a minor increase in thunderstorm chances.

34-Brown

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected throughout the period. Light winds are
expected for much of the period with direction varied by site.
Thunderstorms are expected over area mountains with a slight chance
for storms to enter lowland locations. These storms could bring
outflow winds into TAF sites, mainly after 00z. There is also a very
low chance TAF sites could be directly impacted by TSRA.

34-Brown

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                101  74 102  77 /  10  10   0  10
Sierra Blanca           97  68  96  71 /  10  10  10  20
Las Cruces             100  69  99  71 /  10  10   0  10
Alamogordo              97  69 101  73 /  10  10   0  10
Cloudcroft              75  54  77  57 /  20  10  30  10
Truth or Consequences   97  69  99  72 /  20  10  10  10
Silver City             92  64  91  66 /  30  10  10   0
Deming                 100  67 100  70 /  10  10   0  20
Lordsburg               99  69  97  69 /  10  10   0  20
West El Paso Metro     101  75 102  77 /  10  10   0  10
Dell City               98  69 101  73 /  10  10   0  20
Fort Hancock           101  72 102  75 /  10  10   0  20
Loma Linda              95  71  96  72 /  10  10   0  10
Fabens                 101  73 101  75 /  10  10   0  20
Santa Teresa            99  70 100  73 /  10  10   0  10
White Sands HQ          99  74  99  74 /  10  10   0  10
Jornada Range          100  70  99  71 /  10  10   0  10
Hatch                  100  69 100  71 /  10  10   0  10
Columbus               101  71 100  73 /  10  10   0  20
Orogrande              100  72 100  74 /  10  10   0  10
Mayhill                 85  59  88  63 /  10  10  30  10
Mescalero               86  59  88  61 /  20  20  20   0
Timberon                82  56  86  61 /  10  10  30  10
Winston                 91  59  90  61 /  30  10  20  20
Hillsboro               96  66  97  68 /  30  10  20  20
Spaceport               98  69  99  70 /  10  10   0  10
Lake Roberts            89  59  90  60 /  30  10  20  10
Hurley                  93  64  94  65 /  30  10  10  10
Cliff                   96  61  96  64 /  30  10  10   0
Mule Creek              94  65  92  66 /  30  10   0   0
Faywood                 95  65  95  67 /  30  10  10  10
Animas                 100  67  97  69 /  10  10  10  20
Hachita                 99  65  97  68 /  10  10   0  20
Antelope Wells          99  67  96  68 /  10  10  20  20
Cloverdale              95  65  90  66 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$


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