Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 190552
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1152 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Mostly cloudy skies linger into Tuesday as precipitation chances
diminish across the area. The disturbance that has brought the
unsettled weather the past few days pushes through the region on
Wednesday and leaves behind a more spring-like pattern.
Thereafter, dry and warming conditions are expected into next
weekend. Windy conditions are possible on Sunday ahead of our next
system.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024
The cut-off low continues to spin off to the west in SE CA as it
retrograded over the past 24 hours or so. At the surface, the
backdoor front from last night has brought in more moisture and
plenty of low-level cloud cover, keeping temperatures well below
average today. A trough extending eastward from the main upper low
may trigger some shower/storm activity this evening for areas
west of the Rio Grande. The decent dynamics and shear south of
Deming may be enough to produce small hail and gusty winds with
this activity. A quick couple inches of snow is possible for the
Black Range above 8000ft tonight as the showers pass overhead.
Otherwise, mostly dry conditions are expected for the rest of the
event as dry air moves in from the southwest around the low.
However, the easterly winds at the surface will keep the lower
clouds in place into tomorrow. Tuesday seems like a pretty nice
day overall with warmer temps and lighter winds than Monday. Through
Wednesday, the Rex block that has cut off the low will break down
and allow the system to return to the main flow. The low passes
to the north on Wednesday with a chance of wrap- around showers
for the mountains later in the day. Along the base of the trough
will be breezy west winds during the day with 20-25kts at 850mb.
Generally 15-25 mph sustained winds are expected for Wednesday
afternoon.
For the rest of the week, the warming trend will continue as an
upper ridge builds in from the west. More spring-like weather is
expected through the weekend, involving dry conditions and
somewhat breezy winds. Temperatures climb to above normal by the
end of the week. For Sunday, a deep, broad upper trough moves into
the Western US, resulting in a strong lee cyclone in SE CO. A
tight pressure gradient across the CWA should make for a windy day
on Sunday ahead of the trough. Blowing dust is also a concern for
Sunday due to the southwesterly flow. GFS is showing about
35-40kts at 850mb that afternoon and a 985mb low. Euro has a 986mb
low too, so both global models are on board with this solution.
Depending on the depth of the trough, there is a chance of precip
as well for Monday as the Pacific front moves through.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Mainly VFR conditions expected with SCT-OVC 050-100/250 though lower
bases are possible. Isolated showers will also be possible. Winds
will mainly generally be 5-10 knots with a few high gusts. Direction
will favor easterly (070-100) with some variance likely.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Fire weather concerns remain low through the week. A chance of
lowland rain and high elevation snow lingers into tonight for
western areas. A couple inches of snow are possible in the Black
Range above 8000 feet by tomorrow. Precipitation chances diminish
on Tuesday as drier air filters in from the southwest around the
upper low. Breezy west winds are expected on Wednesday as the
disturbance passes by to the north. The somewhat unsettled
weather pattern turns more spring-like later in the week while
weak ridging builds in from the west. Warming temperatures,
breezy winds, and drying conditions are expected by late week.
Windy conditions are likely early next week ahead of our next
weather system.
Min RHs range from 20-35% on Tuesday in the lowlands, decreasing
to 10-15% by Friday; 30-45% in the mountains on Tuesday, 15-25% by
Friday. Vent rates will be fair to very good Tuesday, then very
good to excellent.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 48 71 48 72 / 30 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 40 67 41 65 / 20 10 10 0
Las Cruces 44 69 42 70 / 40 0 0 0
Alamogordo 41 65 39 67 / 20 10 0 0
Cloudcroft 26 44 28 42 / 30 20 10 10
Truth or Consequences 43 63 40 65 / 40 10 0 0
Silver City 38 58 35 58 / 50 10 0 10
Deming 41 68 38 69 / 50 0 0 0
Lordsburg 41 67 36 66 / 40 10 0 0
West El Paso Metro 46 70 45 70 / 20 0 0 0
Dell City 42 69 39 70 / 20 10 0 0
Fort Hancock 42 74 41 72 / 20 0 0 0
Loma Linda 40 63 40 63 / 20 0 0 0
Fabens 45 73 43 73 / 20 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 43 68 40 68 / 30 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 48 67 46 68 / 30 10 0 0
Jornada Range 44 66 37 67 / 40 0 0 0
Hatch 44 67 37 69 / 50 0 0 0
Columbus 44 69 42 69 / 40 0 0 0
Orogrande 44 65 39 67 / 30 10 0 0
Mayhill 30 58 32 56 / 20 20 0 10
Mescalero 30 56 32 54 / 20 20 10 10
Timberon 30 54 30 54 / 20 20 0 0
Winston 35 56 30 58 / 40 10 0 10
Hillsboro 39 61 35 63 / 50 10 0 0
Spaceport 42 63 35 65 / 40 10 0 0
Lake Roberts 34 58 30 58 / 60 20 10 10
Hurley 36 62 33 62 / 40 10 0 0
Cliff 40 66 35 65 / 50 10 0 10
Mule Creek 38 61 35 60 / 60 10 0 10
Faywood 40 61 35 62 / 50 10 0 0
Animas 39 69 37 68 / 20 0 0 0
Hachita 41 69 38 67 / 40 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 38 70 37 68 / 20 0 0 0
Cloverdale 37 64 38 63 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...15-Brice