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Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 082110
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
210 PM MST Mon Mar 8 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Windy conditions and mild temperatures will be the rule through
the next several days. Patchy areas of blowing dust will be
possible each afternoon, especially Interstate 10 near Lordsburg.
A minor chance for light precipitation will reside across the Gila
Tuesday afternoon and overnight, then dry until the next storm
system arrives late Friday into the first half of the weekend.
Mountain rain and snow showers, in addition to more winds, will be
the primary threats.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...
Satellite imagery shows persistent moisture plume extending from
south of Hawaii across the CWA associated with sub-tropical jet
stream. There will be several short waves associated with strong jet-
lets over the next several days. This period only looks at the first
two however. The first surge came through this morning and has left
considerable high cloudiness in its wake this afternoon. Broken to
overcast higher clouds will continue through tonight. Bases may
lower some late tonight but dry boundary layer (dewpoints in the
20s), should allow some virga at best. Mountain zones could see a
stray shower with added orographic lift, but left POPs out of all
zones for now.

The second surge moves in early Tuesday morning associated with a
130kt jet-let. This should thicken cloud cover up again. Though
dewpoints don`t increase much, atmosphere will have had some time to
moisten down, so did put low POPs in for the Gila and far west.
Again virga could be common around the rest of the area. Main impact
however will be winds. Mid level winds in the mix down region look
to be about 30-45 mph, so despite surface pressure gradient not real
strong, daytime heating should be able to mix down those winds. Will
upgrade Fire Weather Watch to Red Flag Warning, and also issue a
Wind Advisory for most zones west of the Rio Grande. Models have
been consistent in showing weaker gradient east of the Rio Grande. I
could still see east slope areas (El Paso, WSMR Hdqtrs) reaching
advisory criteria due to downsloping but that`s beyond this period.
Blowing dust could also be a problem, as the Wilcox Playa has been
throwing off a lot of dust lately. Included blowing dust in the
grids; may need a Blowing Dust Advisory later.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Slow downward trend in temps after Wednesday, with near 70
Thursday, and 60 to 70 degrees Friday, and cooler temps during the
weekend.

Strong and consistent winds @500mb, consequent of an approaching
deep ULL, will result in persistent lee troughing to the north
and northeast of southern NM. Resultant pressure gradients, in
addition to mixing into brisk winds aloft, make for a breezy to
windy period Wednesday through Friday, especially Luna and Hidalgo
counties. Patchy blowing dust will be possible each afternoon
given the SW wind direction, with Lordsburg and adjacent regions
along I-10 most susceptible to this threat. Fire weather concerns
will be high, with more details below.

Mostly dry conditions are expected out ahead of the next system
for the weekend, but there is a chance for a few rain showers
developing, and surviving, in the Gila Tuesday evening. Not
expecting a whole lot given the overall dry air in place, only
minor accums. The aforementioned system for the weekend, an
anomalous upper level low, will slowly eject east after riding CA
for several days, (slow moving nature of this system is partly due
to the ridging to the NW of the system). Despite this favorable
configuration and storm track, moisture will be minor through the
column and as a result only a 10 to 20 POP chance remains most
areas Fri night through Sat night. Area mtns have the best chance
to see rain/snow accumulations, could perhaps even see a few
inches in the mtns, but lowland rain chances looks sparse at this
time. Regardless, the front associated with this system will move
through, cooling the area, with more breezy to windy conditions on
Saturday. The pattern looks pretty messy thereafter as another
system dives to the south out of the Pac NW.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions expected through the period. SCT180 BKN/OVC250
with layers to 350. After 12Z...isold BKN080 -SHRA, mainly over
the Gila Region/Black Range. Surface winds southwest 8-12KTS gusts
to 20KTS. South winds 12-15KTS gusts to 25KTS Rio Grande Valley
vicinity of Sierra County Lakes. All winds diminishing after 03Z
to southwest 5-8KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A mostly dry forecast in store for the forecast period--with
winds being the main concern. Could be a few, mostly mountain
showers Tuesday. Winds will increase and likely be a concern into
the weekend. For Tuesday, upgraded Fire Watch to Red Flag Warning.
Strongest winds likely west of the Rio Grande. Mountain areas
will see RHs a bit too high so limited to the lowland zones out
west. Winds again a problem Wednesday so have gone ahead and
issued a Red Flag Warning for all lowland zones as stronger winds
now likely even east of the Rio Grande. Winds probably even
approaching or exceeding Red Flag criteria lowlands Thursday
through Saturday. Pacific upper low sweeps across the area Friday
night and Saturday. Some showers possible mainly north and west of
El Paso. Showers turning to light snow mountain zones by
Saturday.

Min RHs: Lowlands 8-15% through Friday, then 12-18% Sat/Sun.
         Mountains 15-25% through Friday, then 25-35% Sat/Sun.
Vent rates mostly excellent into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 53  80  52  78 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           47  78  50  76 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              49  79  45  74 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              47  78  45  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              36  54  34  49 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   49  76  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             46  64  38  58 /   0  10  10   0
Deming                  45  77  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               46  74  35  67 /   0  10  10   0
West El Paso Metro      54  80  52  77 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               42  79  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            46  82  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              48  73  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  48  81  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            49  79  45  75 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          50  78  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           45  76  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   48  77  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                51  79  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               45  78  46  74 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 42  68  41  61 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               40  64  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                37  64  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 37  66  32  61 /   0  10  10   0
Hillsboro               45  72  40  66 /   0  10  10   0
Spaceport               46  75  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            41  63  33  58 /   0  10  10   0
Hurley                  41  68  33  63 /   0  10  10   0
Cliff                   41  70  32  65 /   0  10  10   0
Mule Creek              38  66  34  58 /   0  10  10   0
Faywood                 46  69  38  63 /   0  10  10   0
Animas                  47  77  37  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 47  77  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          48  77  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              48  69  41  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MST Wednesday for NMZ111-112.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MST Tuesday for NMZ111-112.

     Wind Advisory from noon to 6 PM MST Tuesday for NMZ402>411.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MST Wednesday for TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

17-Hefner/35-DeLizio/17
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
