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Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 032357
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
557 PM MDT Fri Apr 3 2020

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE...
VFR conds expected to continue through this period. Thick dense
cloud layer will be slowly moving to the east over the night
hours. High clouds should remain in areas close to the
International Border tomorrow. The current breezy southwest winds
observed at KLRU, KDMN and KTCS should decrease after sunset. A
weak backdoor cold front tries to move in overnight, this will
shift the winds to the southeast in areas east of the Rio Grande.
Wind speeds should remain AOB 12kts overnight too. Tomorrow
afternoon, the southwest winds return as the upper flow mixes down
to the surface pushing the frontal boundary back east.

&&
29

.PREV DISCUSSION...220 PM MDT Fri Apr 3 2020...

.SYNOPSIS...
More warm and dry weather is expected this weekend with light
southwest winds. A stagnant weather pattern will keep temperatures
and winds very similar each day, with lowland highs in the upper
seventies and southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph. Mostly cloudy
skies over west Texas on Monday may produce a few rain showers
over Hudspeth County, otherwise the region will remain dry.
Stronger winds will be possible late next week along with
mountain rain chances and cooler temperatures.

&&
30

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday...
High level moisture will continue to bring high clouds of varying
thickness to the area through this afternoon and evening, with skies
ranging from Partly to Mostly Cloudy. Drier air aloft will move in
from the west on Saturday, though the back edge of the high cloud
cover looks like it will stay close to an ELP-CNM line through the
afternoon.

A backdoor cold front has stalled out just east of the Sacramento
and Guadalupe Mountains as expected. However, most high-res models
suggest easterly flow will seep westward into the Rio Grande valley
overnight, though winds will be light. The easterlies will mostly
mix-out by midday, without much impact on afternoon high
temperatures, which look to be seasonal, within a degree or three of
climatological averages.

&&
25

.LONG TERM...
Weak southwest flow aloft will keep the region dry and quiet over
the weekend into early next week. Stuck within lighter flow in
between the polar and subtropical jet, our weather won`t change
much over the next few days. A nearly stationary upper flow
pattern will keep a ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and a strong
meridional jet over the U.S. west coast. Temperatures will remain
steady with lowland highs in the upper 70`s most days. Southwest
winds of 15 to 20 mph Sunday afternoon will be repeated on
Monday/Tuesday as winds remain below advisory criteria. We could
see a few light rain showers over Hudspeth County Monday morning
as some deeper moisture tries to push westward, however the window
for precipitation is short as moisture is quickly pushed back
east via surface troughing by Monday evening. CLoud cover will be
more common over far west Texas, with fewer clouds westward
over New Mexico. The rest of the region will remain dry, with few
weather impacts of note. Benign, southwest flow will be the main
story through at least next Tuesday.

Our next impactful weather event is expected to begin late next
week as a closed upper low finally moves ashore and progresses
over the Southern Rockies. Winds will be the primary concern next
Wednesday-Friday as lee cyclogenesis deepens and a modified
Pacific airmass moves through the region. Exact timing with the
arrival of this system remains low confidence, as the GFS
continued to be much faster with this system`s progression than
the ECMWF and GEFS. For now, the forecast mentions slight rain
chances across our northern mountain zones (Thurs/Fri), windy
conditions area wide (Wed/Thurs/Fri), and a slight cool down of
temperatures by next Friday.

&&
30

.FIRE WEATHER...
Generally light west to southwest winds and dry conditions will
persist through the weekend and into early next week. Easterly flow
ahead of a stalled out front over eastern New Mexico will seep into
the Rio Grande Valley overnight, but the southwesterlies aloft will
quickly mix down to the surface by early afternoon.

Min RH values look to stay in the mid-teens for the next several
days. The afternoons will become increasingly breezy to windy next
week, with an upper level low possibly bringing stronger winds to
the area Wednesday and Thursday. There may be just enough moisture
with this system for a few mountain showers, and a slight boost in
lowland RH values to stave off critical fire weather conditions.

The good news -- ventilation rates look to be highly favorable over
the next several days.

&&
25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 52  78  54  80 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           46  73  49  76 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              47  75  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              47  75  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              37  53  36  56 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   44  76  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             38  67  43  70 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  43  76  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               43  76  44  76 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      54  78  55  80 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               43  76  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            50  81  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              45  72  50  75 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  50  80  53  82 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            50  77  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          50  76  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           46  75  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   46  76  46  79 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                47  77  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               47  76  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 39  65  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               39  63  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                36  61  38  64 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 31  69  38  71 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               42  73  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               44  75  44  77 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            32  67  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  36  70  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   34  73  39  76 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              34  69  42  71 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 36  71  43  73 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  42  75  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 42  75  43  77 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          43  75  44  79 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              43  70  45  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25-Hardiman/30-Dennhardt/29-Crespo
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
