Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 190552
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1152 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Mostly cloudy skies linger into Tuesday as precipitation chances
diminish across the area. The disturbance that has brought the
unsettled weather the past few days pushes through the region on
Wednesday and leaves behind a more spring-like pattern.
Thereafter, dry and warming conditions are expected into next
weekend. Windy conditions are possible on Sunday ahead of our next
system.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

The cut-off low continues to spin off to the west in SE CA as it
retrograded over the past 24 hours or so. At the surface, the
backdoor front from last night has brought in more moisture and
plenty of low-level cloud cover, keeping temperatures well below
average today. A trough extending eastward from the main upper low
may trigger some shower/storm activity this evening for areas
west of the Rio Grande. The decent dynamics and shear south of
Deming may be enough to produce small hail and gusty winds with
this activity. A quick couple inches of snow is possible for the
Black Range above 8000ft tonight as the showers pass overhead.

Otherwise, mostly dry conditions are expected for the rest of the
event as dry air moves in from the southwest around the low.
However, the easterly winds at the surface will keep the lower
clouds in place into tomorrow. Tuesday seems like a pretty nice
day overall with warmer temps and lighter winds than Monday. Through
Wednesday, the Rex block that has cut off the low will break down
and allow the system to return to the main flow. The low passes
to the north on Wednesday with a chance of wrap- around showers
for the mountains later in the day. Along the base of the trough
will be breezy west winds during the day with 20-25kts at 850mb.
Generally 15-25 mph sustained winds are expected for Wednesday
afternoon.

For the rest of the week, the warming trend will continue as an
upper ridge builds in from the west. More spring-like weather is
expected through the weekend, involving dry conditions and
somewhat breezy winds. Temperatures climb to above normal by the
end of the week. For Sunday, a deep, broad upper trough moves into
the Western US, resulting in a strong lee cyclone in SE CO. A
tight pressure gradient across the CWA should make for a windy day
on Sunday ahead of the trough. Blowing dust is also a concern for
Sunday due to the southwesterly flow. GFS is showing about
35-40kts at 850mb that afternoon and a 985mb low. Euro has a 986mb
low too, so both global models are on board with this solution.
Depending on the depth of the trough, there is a chance of precip
as well for Monday as the Pacific front moves through.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1152 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Mainly VFR conditions expected with SCT-OVC 050-100/250 though lower
bases are possible. Isolated showers will also be possible. Winds
will mainly generally be 5-10 knots with a few high gusts. Direction
will favor easterly (070-100) with some variance likely.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 205 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Fire weather concerns remain low through the week. A chance of
lowland rain and high elevation snow lingers into tonight for
western areas. A couple inches of snow are possible in the Black
Range above 8000 feet by tomorrow. Precipitation chances diminish
on Tuesday as drier air filters in from the southwest around the
upper low. Breezy west winds are expected on Wednesday as the
disturbance passes by to the north. The somewhat unsettled
weather pattern turns more spring-like later in the week while
weak ridging builds in from the west. Warming temperatures,
breezy winds, and drying conditions are expected by late week.
Windy conditions are likely early next week ahead of our next
weather system.

Min RHs range from 20-35% on Tuesday in the lowlands, decreasing
to 10-15% by Friday; 30-45% in the mountains on Tuesday, 15-25% by
Friday. Vent rates will be fair to very good Tuesday, then very
good to excellent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  48  71  48  72 /  30   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            40  67  41  65 /  20  10  10   0
Las Cruces               44  69  42  70 /  40   0   0   0
Alamogordo               41  65  39  67 /  20  10   0   0
Cloudcroft               26  44  28  42 /  30  20  10  10
Truth or Consequences    43  63  40  65 /  40  10   0   0
Silver City              38  58  35  58 /  50  10   0  10
Deming                   41  68  38  69 /  50   0   0   0
Lordsburg                41  67  36  66 /  40  10   0   0
West El Paso Metro       46  70  45  70 /  20   0   0   0
Dell City                42  69  39  70 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Hancock             42  74  41  72 /  20   0   0   0
Loma Linda               40  63  40  63 /  20   0   0   0
Fabens                   45  73  43  73 /  20   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             43  68  40  68 /  30   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           48  67  46  68 /  30  10   0   0
Jornada Range            44  66  37  67 /  40   0   0   0
Hatch                    44  67  37  69 /  50   0   0   0
Columbus                 44  69  42  69 /  40   0   0   0
Orogrande                44  65  39  67 /  30  10   0   0
Mayhill                  30  58  32  56 /  20  20   0  10
Mescalero                30  56  32  54 /  20  20  10  10
Timberon                 30  54  30  54 /  20  20   0   0
Winston                  35  56  30  58 /  40  10   0  10
Hillsboro                39  61  35  63 /  50  10   0   0
Spaceport                42  63  35  65 /  40  10   0   0
Lake Roberts             34  58  30  58 /  60  20  10  10
Hurley                   36  62  33  62 /  40  10   0   0
Cliff                    40  66  35  65 /  50  10   0  10
Mule Creek               38  61  35  60 /  60  10   0  10
Faywood                  40  61  35  62 /  50  10   0   0
Animas                   39  69  37  68 /  20   0   0   0
Hachita                  41  69  38  67 /  40   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           38  70  37  68 /  20   0   0   0
Cloverdale               37  64  38  63 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice


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