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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 251754
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1154 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2020

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions expected to prevail through the morning, with
deteriorating conditions as we go into the afternoon on Monday.
Wind 230-260 at 20G30KT this afternoon. Strongest surface wind
continues to be at KDMN/KTCS. However the latest guidance does
put KELP right at AWW criteria, and therefore issued one for 20Z
to 1Z. Visibility expected to remain above 6SM with little to no
blowing dust. Wind subsides slightly after dark, but breezy
conditions (10-15G20-25KT) will continue through the night,
especially along east slopes. LLWS at 20-30 knots still looks to
be possible near all terminals from 3-12Z, however it is too light
to place in TAF. Tomorrow, a strong cold front will approach the
region, bringing increased winds again tomorrow. Expect westerly
wind at 15G25KT after 16Z. Ceilings will drop to SCT-BKN120-080
toward the end of the period, when the chances for rain at KTCS
enters the forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...521 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2020...

.PREV DISCUSSION...305 AM MDT Sun Oct 25 2020...

.SYNOPSIS...
A change of the seasons is in store for the Borderland as we
continue the late summer/early fall today and again on Monday,
then switch to brief shot of winter Monday night and Tuesday.
Strong west to southwest flow aloft will continue to push some
clouds in and with breezy southwest surface winds, temperatures
will remain above normal. By late Monday afternoon and then
through the evening, a strong cold front will push westward to the
Arizona border. This will bring snow showers to the mountains and
higher lowlands, with a slight chance of a dusting even at the
low elevations such as El Paso. A brief period of freezing rain or
ice pellets is even possible Monday night. Showers will continue
Tuesday and then taper off late night into Wednesday morning.
Highs Tuesday could be 40 degrees lower than today. The rest of
the week will become dry with temperatures moderating back to
normal by Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight...
Warm and windy weather is expected today as turbulent southwest
flow aloft will again induce the formation of a lee side surface
low. To our northeast, a strong cold front advancing down the
Southern Plains will tighten pressure gradients further. Thus,
southwest winds will increase this afternoon at 20 to 30 mph.
Gusts will approach 40 mph with locally higher readings over
mountain ridges and gaps as we mix up to around 630mb. This looks
to remain just below advisory criteria, however high fire danger
will be a hazard. Today will be the last warm day for a while,
with temperatures around 10 degrees above normal for late October.
Expecting lowland highs in the mid-80`s this afternoon under
partly cloudy skies.

Winds will remain breezy overnight with a few gusty east slope
locations. The main story will be the arrival of a polar airmass
first along the far eastern edge of our forecast area.
Temperatures will begin to drop significantly along the east
slopes of the Sacramento Mountains and eastern Hudspeth County as
the front arrives. A few rain showers ahead of the cold front will
also be possible Monday morning over mountain zones. The more
impactful weather begins on Monday. Models still differ on frontal
timing, with NAM12 the fastest. GFS/ECMWF fairly close and will
go with them for now (front often is still faster than the slower
models).

&&

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday...
Looks like we could see 3 seasons in the next 3 days. After late
summer like weather today, Monday will remain windy, more like
spring. Then Tuesday will be a shot of winter. Monday begins with
the cold polar low dropping down to Utah/Colorado. Ahead of this
low, a weak Pacific cool front will push in. This makes Monday`s
high temps tricky as breezy southwest winds continue, but with
slight cold advection. This front quickly goes aloft over the
strong backdoor cold front moving in. Back door front begins
Monday over the Sac Mtns and higher terrain down to far east
Hudspeth Co. The front should reach the Rio Grande Valley mid to
late Monday afternoon. The frontal structure also gets a good
north push so the front after reaching the Rio Grande Valley will
sag west and south. Expect rain showers to change to snow by late
Mon afternoon most mountain locations and by late in the evening a
mixture of rain/snow could fall on desert locations above 4500`
and possibly down to 3500` after midnight. Prog soundings also
show a slight chance of freezing rain/sleet over the southern and
eastern lowlands late Monday night as the warm wedge aloft
survives in this area until up to daybreak Tue morning. Winter
Advisories may be needed for the mountains and higher elevations
of the lowlands, but confidence not high right now on snow
amounts. Daytime fcst package may issue by then.

By Tue afternoon upper low is over the eastern CWA (ECMWF a bit
slower), with showers continuing. Snow levels rise a bit so any
snow should be limited to the mountains by Tue afternoon. By
daybreak Wed morning upper low should be over the Texas Panhandle
or SE New Mexico, with showers tapering off and ending in the east
by mid day. For remainder of Wednesday into the weekend, a large
upper ridge moves over the western U.S., allowing clearing skies
and moderating temperatures. Raised temps a bit faster than GFS
MOS (more like old ECMWF MOS), since we are still early in the
fall season.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon as
relative humidity dips to 10-15% and winds increase from the
southwest at 20 to 30 mph. Strong southwest flow ahead of an
advancing cold front down the Southern Plains will produce a few
hours of Red Flag conditions across southwest New Mexico.
Continued warm and dry weather will once again produce
temperatures around 10 degrees above normal for late October. The
areas of greatest fire danger will be the Gila Wilderness and the
I-10 corridor in southwest New Mexico, where winds will be
strongest. Ongoing drought conditions will increase the risk,
especially in places where dry fuels are present. Smoke
ventilation will be excellent today.

Another round of windy southwest flow is expected on Monday,
though fire danger will decrease as temperatures cool slightly. RH
will only dip to 20-30% as temperatures struggle to warm under
increasingly cloudy skies. An advancing cold front will arrive
from the east first over far west Texas Monday morning, then the
rest of the region Monday night. Smoke ventilation will again be
Excellent prior to frontal passage. Temperatures will plummet
overnight as a polar airmass moves in and remains in place the
first half of the week. Widespread freezes are expected Monday and
Tuesday nights.

At the same time as this major cool down, an upper low will pass
over the region and provide our first precipitation chances in
weeks. Rain chances will first begin on Monday over the central
New Mexico mountains, with a wintry mix overnight. Lowland rain
showers and mountain snows will continue on Tuesday, with snow
accumulations likely for the Black Range and Sacramento Mountains.

Drier conditions are expected Wednesday through the rest of the
week as temperatures slowly climb back to near climate normals.
Winds will remain lighter than second half of the week.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 58  73  31  43 /  10  30  40  50
Sierra Blanca           54  68  25  41 /   0  10  20  30
Las Cruces              54  70  30  43 /   0  30  50  60
Alamogordo              55  69  27  42 /  20  30  60  60
Cloudcroft              36  46  15  29 /  40  50  70  70
Truth or Consequences   51  67  28  40 /  30  40  60  70
Silver City             46  62  28  40 /  40  50  70  70
Deming                  51  73  30  44 /  10  30  50  60
Lordsburg               49  70  31  48 /  20  40  50  50
West El Paso Metro      59  74  31  45 /  10  30  40  50
Dell City               49  63  27  39 /  10  30  40  50
Fort Hancock            57  79  34  50 /   0  20  20  30
Loma Linda              52  64  25  37 /  10  30  30  50
Fabens                  56  76  33  45 /   0  30  30  40
Santa Teresa            56  73  30  44 /  10  30  40  50
White Sands HQ          56  69  30  42 /  10  30  50  60
Jornada Range           50  69  30  41 /  10  30  60  60
Hatch                   51  70  30  41 /  20  30  60  60
Columbus                53  75  32  46 /   0  20  50  50
Orogrande               54  66  30  43 /  10  30  50  60
Mayhill                 33  46  12  32 /  30  50  70  70
Mescalero               41  55  17  36 /  40  60  70  70
Timberon                39  52  17  33 /  30  40  60  70
Winston                 39  61  18  36 /  30  50  60  70
Hillsboro               46  68  21  41 /  20  40  60  70
Spaceport               50  68  29  40 /  20  30  60  70
Lake Roberts            37  61  18  43 /  40  60  70  70
Hurley                  46  65  29  41 /  30  40  60  60
Cliff                   44  63  28  45 /  40  70  60  60
Mule Creek              40  60  26  45 /  60  80  50  60
Faywood                 47  65  26  41 /  20  40  70  60
Animas                  50  72  32  51 /  10  20  40  50
Hachita                 49  72  31  47 /   0  20  50  50
Antelope Wells          50  73  34  51 /   0  10  40  40
Cloverdale              49  65  33  46 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ110>112.

TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/99



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