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Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 232323
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
423 PM MST Thu Jan 23 2020

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions for the whole period with skies SKC-SCT250. Winds
will be light under 10 knots and mainly variable in direction.

&&

34

.PREV DISCUSSION...324 PM MST Thu Jan 23 2020...

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions will persist through the weekend, with temperatures
warming up to the mid and upper 60s across the lowlands Saturday
and Sunday. An upper level disturbance will bring windy conditions
to the area on Monday, with a slight chance for rain and snow
showers in the higher terrain of Grant and Otero Counties. Cooler
temperatures will filter in behind this system Tuesday into
Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday...
A northwest flow will continue over the region through Friday. Drier
air has started to move into the area and will continue through the
period. The drier and and light winds should lead to lows similar to
last night across the area with mainly upper 20s to lower 30s
expected under clear skies.  Tomorrow will likely see an increase in
some high clouds, but they shouldn`t have much of an effect on
temperatures which will warm a few degrees over today`s highs which
I again went a degree or two above guidance numbers based on recent
trends.

&&

.LONG TERM...
A weakening ridge will shift into Arizona and Utah on Friday, as
an upper level shortwave trug moves into the Great Basin. This
trough will move across the Central Rockies on Saturday, including
lee troughing and favoring warmer temperatures across our area due
to downsloping westerlies. High temperatures will increase to
around 4 to 8 degrees above normal for Saturday, with similar
temperatures for Sunday as an upper level ridge moves across the
area.

Another shortwave trough, a little stronger and digging deeper,
will move across New Mexico on Monday. Ensembles and both the
ECMWF and GFS continue to suggest limited moisture bringing just
some isolated showers to the higher terrain of Grant and Otero
counties on Monday, with windy conditions over the lowlands as a
deep surface low develops over the Texas Panhandle. Winds may
approach advisory criteria, especially along east-facing mountain
slopes. Temperatures will cool back down to near or slightly-
below seasonal behind this system Tuesday into Wednesday. Another
system looks to follow on its heels late Wednesday into Thursday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and warm conditions expected through the weekend with winds
under 15 mph.  Minimum relative humidities will be falling into the
20s daily for most locations with a few lower elevations getting
into the teens. With winds on the light side and mixing heights low,
vent rates will remain poor Friday with some improvement for
Saturday, especially southern zones. An upper trough will cross the
region Monday, but will not have much moisture, so besides a few
mountain showers, dry conditions are expected but there will be
windy conditions areawide.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 34  65  38  67 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           42  63  39  65 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              31  62  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              30  62  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              24  46  30  43 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   33  61  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             34  56  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  29  63  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               33  63  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      35  65  39  66 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               27  64  34  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            33  69  38  70 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              33  61  39  61 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  32  67  38  67 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            32  64  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          36  64  38  63 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           25  62  32  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   28  64  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                32  65  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               34  63  36  63 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 30  56  34  53 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               26  53  31  50 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                24  53  31  51 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 29  57  31  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               31  61  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               32  62  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            24  60  29  56 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  27  59  31  60 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   24  62  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              25  60  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 29  61  32  60 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  32  64  35  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 31  64  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          30  66  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              34  63  38  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

26-Grzywacz/25/34
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
