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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
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FXUS64 KEPZ 242341
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
541 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022

...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE...

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the
TAF sites with CIG SCT-BKN100-250. There will be some periods of
SKC. There will also be a few linger isolated TS across the
Borderland at least until before midnight. The winds will be from
the west northwest between 5 and 15kts overnight with possible
gust up to 18kts at KLRU and KDMN until 05Z. The winds will become
generally light with variable directions by around 18Z. TS will
be possible by around 18Z in the vicinity of all the sites
through 00Z Sunday. There will be no reduction in the VIS across
the runways.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022...

.SYNOPSIS...
A daily chance for thunderstorms will remain into next week,
especially for area mountains. Heavy rain leading to isolated
instances of flooding and gusty winds will be the main hazards.
Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s through mid next
week with light winds outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...
A plume of gulf moisture is continuing to filter into the western
half of our FA this afternoon around broad high pressure centered
over S OK. This can be seen in GOES vapor satellite imagery this
afternoon, along with visible satellite. A gradient of dew points
have set up this afternoon with 60s along the AZ border and upper
40s in parts of eastern Otero and Hudspeth counties, signifying dry
air trying to filter in from the SE. Nonetheless, there has been
continuous light showers associated with this stream in Hidalgo and
Grant counties, and a few isolated thunderstorms have sparked over
the San Andres and Sacramento Mountains where there is has been
clearing this afternoon.  Model soundings show an EML and capping
inversion around and east of El Paso this evening. However, any
outflow boundaries that set up should be able to break through
whatever exists.  So while most shower and thunderstorm activity
will be focused west of the Rio Grande River and mountain areas this
evening/overnight, have extended the slight chance of isolated
storms across the FA.  The primary threat will be localized
flooding, but some strong outflow winds will also be possible given
high DCAPEs and inverted V soundings. Temperatures overnight will be
above normal thanks to increased cloud cover, and wind will be less
than 10 mph.

The center of the high will be located over central AR on Saturday,
which will spread scattered storm chances across the CWA as the
moisture plume moves east. Moist soundings for areas west of the Rio
Grande River, including mountain areas, indicate the chance for
localized heavy rain, with lowland areas east of the Rio Grande
having dry mid-levels, introducing chance for small hail. Highs
tomorrow will be similar to today (lowland 90s) and below seasonal
average.

&&

.LONG TERM...
Saturday evening and overnight will be another active night
according to model guidance. Appears another either convectively induced
piece of energy will work south to north across western portions
of the CWA, allowing for lift to overspread a sufficiently moist
airmass. As a result, quite healthy POPs remain through the
overnight hours, even across the Rio Grande Valley. Pockets of
heavy rain will be possible and even a few instances of localized
flooding.

The combination of lingering convective debris and a drier more
stable airmass will likely lead to a less active Sunday overall,
especially along and east of the Rio Grande. Then, a backdoor
front will bring some more moisture in from the north and east,
reintroducing the daily thunderstorm chances (maybe even as early
as Sunday night into early Monday) through at least mid next
week. Moisture will not be earth shattering, but healthy enough
(PW ~1.0" to 1.2", dews on either side of the mid 50s) for heavy
rain potential and isolated instances of flooding. ECM and ECMENS
are pretty bullish for precipitation accumulation, especially
across area mtns (Gila) and west of the Rio, but also has decent
rains for the El Paso metro. Not seeing much of a modest bulk
shear signature either so the severe threat will remain minimal
and very isolated in nature. Temperatures will remain largely
below average through mid next week with values in the upper 80s
to mid 90s across the lowlands. Looking at the operational runs of
the GFS and ECM, the later portions of next week into the weekend
look to potentially remain active as well.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Continued rainfall chances will keep fire weather risk low
through the weekend and early next week as min RH levels stay well
above critical thresholds. Scattered thunderstorms likely over
high terrain, with the best chances for additional rains along the
Continental Divide and Gila Wilderness. Localized flooding and
runoff will be possible, along with ash debris flows within the
Black Fire burn scar. Light and variable transport flow will lead
to Fair smoke ventilation today and Saturday. Excellent Sunday,
but back to poor to start the week.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 73  96  72  93 /  20  30  50  20
Sierra Blanca           69  92  68  89 /  20  30  30  10
Las Cruces              68  93  67  91 /  30  40  50  40
Alamogordo              67  92  65  89 /  20  50  40  40
Cloudcroft              51  70  48  65 /  20  60  40  50
Truth or Consequences   67  90  67  85 /  30  50  50  60
Silver City             63  83  62  79 /  40  50  50  70
Deming                  66  90  66  88 /  40  40  60  50
Lordsburg               66  90  67  87 /  40  30  50  60
West El Paso Metro      72  95  72  92 /  30  30  50  30
Dell City               68  97  67  92 /  20  30  30  20
Fort Hancock            69  99  70  95 /  20  30  40  20
Loma Linda              65  90  67  86 /  20  40  40  20
Fabens                  69  97  71  95 /  20  30  40  20
Santa Teresa            69  92  68  90 /  30  30  50  30
White Sands HQ          73  92  72  89 /  30  40  50  40
Jornada Range           65  90  67  87 /  30  50  50  40
Hatch                   67  91  67  87 /  30  40  50  50
Columbus                70  90  68  89 /  50  30  50  40
Orogrande               67  93  68  90 /  20  40  40  30
Mayhill                 56  82  52  75 /  20  50  40  50
Mescalero               55  80  52  75 /  20  60  50  50
Timberon                56  79  53  75 /  20  50  40  40
Winston                 60  81  58  77 /  30  60  60  70
Hillsboro               65  87  64  83 /  30  50  50  60
Spaceport               64  90  65  85 /  30  50  50  50
Lake Roberts            55  84  57  80 /  40  60  50  70
Hurley                  62  87  62  85 /  30  50  50  60
Cliff                   56  91  54  87 /  40  50  40  70
Mule Creek              59  87  61  80 /  30  50  40  70
Faywood                 65  87  64  84 /  30  50  50  60
Animas                  65  90  66  88 /  40  40  60  60
Hachita                 66  89  65  88 /  50  40  60  50
Antelope Wells          65  88  64  87 /  50  40  60  50
Cloverdale              62  85  62  83 /  50  40  60  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

33-Reynolds/35/36
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
