Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 242341
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
541 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022
...UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF CYCLE...
.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the
TAF sites with CIG SCT-BKN100-250. There will be some periods of
SKC. There will also be a few linger isolated TS across the
Borderland at least until before midnight. The winds will be from
the west northwest between 5 and 15kts overnight with possible
gust up to 18kts at KLRU and KDMN until 05Z. The winds will become
generally light with variable directions by around 18Z. TS will
be possible by around 18Z in the vicinity of all the sites
through 00Z Sunday. There will be no reduction in the VIS across
the runways.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022...
.SYNOPSIS...
A daily chance for thunderstorms will remain into next week,
especially for area mountains. Heavy rain leading to isolated
instances of flooding and gusty winds will be the main hazards.
Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to mid 90s through mid next
week with light winds outside of thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...
A plume of gulf moisture is continuing to filter into the western
half of our FA this afternoon around broad high pressure centered
over S OK. This can be seen in GOES vapor satellite imagery this
afternoon, along with visible satellite. A gradient of dew points
have set up this afternoon with 60s along the AZ border and upper
40s in parts of eastern Otero and Hudspeth counties, signifying dry
air trying to filter in from the SE. Nonetheless, there has been
continuous light showers associated with this stream in Hidalgo and
Grant counties, and a few isolated thunderstorms have sparked over
the San Andres and Sacramento Mountains where there is has been
clearing this afternoon. Model soundings show an EML and capping
inversion around and east of El Paso this evening. However, any
outflow boundaries that set up should be able to break through
whatever exists. So while most shower and thunderstorm activity
will be focused west of the Rio Grande River and mountain areas this
evening/overnight, have extended the slight chance of isolated
storms across the FA. The primary threat will be localized
flooding, but some strong outflow winds will also be possible given
high DCAPEs and inverted V soundings. Temperatures overnight will be
above normal thanks to increased cloud cover, and wind will be less
than 10 mph.
The center of the high will be located over central AR on Saturday,
which will spread scattered storm chances across the CWA as the
moisture plume moves east. Moist soundings for areas west of the Rio
Grande River, including mountain areas, indicate the chance for
localized heavy rain, with lowland areas east of the Rio Grande
having dry mid-levels, introducing chance for small hail. Highs
tomorrow will be similar to today (lowland 90s) and below seasonal
average.
&&
.LONG TERM...
Saturday evening and overnight will be another active night
according to model guidance. Appears another either convectively induced
piece of energy will work south to north across western portions
of the CWA, allowing for lift to overspread a sufficiently moist
airmass. As a result, quite healthy POPs remain through the
overnight hours, even across the Rio Grande Valley. Pockets of
heavy rain will be possible and even a few instances of localized
flooding.
The combination of lingering convective debris and a drier more
stable airmass will likely lead to a less active Sunday overall,
especially along and east of the Rio Grande. Then, a backdoor
front will bring some more moisture in from the north and east,
reintroducing the daily thunderstorm chances (maybe even as early
as Sunday night into early Monday) through at least mid next
week. Moisture will not be earth shattering, but healthy enough
(PW ~1.0" to 1.2", dews on either side of the mid 50s) for heavy
rain potential and isolated instances of flooding. ECM and ECMENS
are pretty bullish for precipitation accumulation, especially
across area mtns (Gila) and west of the Rio, but also has decent
rains for the El Paso metro. Not seeing much of a modest bulk
shear signature either so the severe threat will remain minimal
and very isolated in nature. Temperatures will remain largely
below average through mid next week with values in the upper 80s
to mid 90s across the lowlands. Looking at the operational runs of
the GFS and ECM, the later portions of next week into the weekend
look to potentially remain active as well.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Continued rainfall chances will keep fire weather risk low
through the weekend and early next week as min RH levels stay well
above critical thresholds. Scattered thunderstorms likely over
high terrain, with the best chances for additional rains along the
Continental Divide and Gila Wilderness. Localized flooding and
runoff will be possible, along with ash debris flows within the
Black Fire burn scar. Light and variable transport flow will lead
to Fair smoke ventilation today and Saturday. Excellent Sunday,
but back to poor to start the week.
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 73 96 72 93 / 20 30 50 20
Sierra Blanca 69 92 68 89 / 20 30 30 10
Las Cruces 68 93 67 91 / 30 40 50 40
Alamogordo 67 92 65 89 / 20 50 40 40
Cloudcroft 51 70 48 65 / 20 60 40 50
Truth or Consequences 67 90 67 85 / 30 50 50 60
Silver City 63 83 62 79 / 40 50 50 70
Deming 66 90 66 88 / 40 40 60 50
Lordsburg 66 90 67 87 / 40 30 50 60
West El Paso Metro 72 95 72 92 / 30 30 50 30
Dell City 68 97 67 92 / 20 30 30 20
Fort Hancock 69 99 70 95 / 20 30 40 20
Loma Linda 65 90 67 86 / 20 40 40 20
Fabens 69 97 71 95 / 20 30 40 20
Santa Teresa 69 92 68 90 / 30 30 50 30
White Sands HQ 73 92 72 89 / 30 40 50 40
Jornada Range 65 90 67 87 / 30 50 50 40
Hatch 67 91 67 87 / 30 40 50 50
Columbus 70 90 68 89 / 50 30 50 40
Orogrande 67 93 68 90 / 20 40 40 30
Mayhill 56 82 52 75 / 20 50 40 50
Mescalero 55 80 52 75 / 20 60 50 50
Timberon 56 79 53 75 / 20 50 40 40
Winston 60 81 58 77 / 30 60 60 70
Hillsboro 65 87 64 83 / 30 50 50 60
Spaceport 64 90 65 85 / 30 50 50 50
Lake Roberts 55 84 57 80 / 40 60 50 70
Hurley 62 87 62 85 / 30 50 50 60
Cliff 56 91 54 87 / 40 50 40 70
Mule Creek 59 87 61 80 / 30 50 40 70
Faywood 65 87 64 84 / 30 50 50 60
Animas 65 90 66 88 / 40 40 60 60
Hachita 66 89 65 88 / 50 40 60 50
Antelope Wells 65 88 64 87 / 50 40 60 50
Cloverdale 62 85 62 83 / 50 40 60 60
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
33-Reynolds/35/36