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Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 062341
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
441 PM MST Fri Dec 6 2019


.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE...
High level moisture associated with the subtropical jet will
continue to increase in coverage through this evening. Skies will
range from BKN-OVC 200-250 through the period, with some thinning-
out Sat morning. Winds will be light and variable tonight, slowly
trending towards west to southwesterly late Saturday afternoon.

&&

25-Hardiman

.PREV DISCUSSION...340 PM MST Fri Dec 6 2019...

.SYNOPSIS...
Fair weather continues today and tomorrow before an upper
disturbance moves in on Sunday. Precipitation chances return to
the Borderland from Sunday through Tuesday morning with this
system. Mainly rain showers for the lowlands, and possible snow
showers in the mountain areas. However, snow accumulation are
expected to be light. By Tuesday, another period of dry weather
begins with temperatures reaching near seasonal values by
Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...
High level moisture associated with an active subtropical jet will
continue to increase overnight. Both the NAM and GFS indicate
widespread and thickening high cloud cover, which should be enough
to limit radiational cooling, limiting overnight low temperatures in
most outlying areas, keeping them close to last night`s lows. Clouds
will begin to thin on Saturday, with highs in the 60s for the
lowlands, which is about 5 to 8 degrees above normal.

&&

25-Hardiman

.LONG TERM...
A weak upper level ridge will continue to affect the region on
Saturday night. We get a small cloud break with it, but clouds are
in the horizon as another system approaches on Sunday. A
shortwave will be passing on Sunday advecting upper level moisture
into New Mexico. PW will increase up t 0.75 inches. This will
result in mainly rain showers across the region, except on Sunday
night at the highest elevations where snow showers will be
possible mainly above 9000ft.

This system has good dynamics as an upper level jet sets over
central New Mexico on Sunday afternoon. Also at the lower levels
we have a lee cyclone in eastern Colorado which will create some
breezy winds across most of the lowlands, and windy conditions
over Hudspeth county and the Sacramento Mountains.

On Sunday night into Monday morning, snow levels drop to 8000ft.
So, the chances for snow over the Sacramento Mountains and the
Gila region increase. At the moment, snow amounts should be below
an inch. The trough axis finally moves through by Monday night.
Temperatures are expected to drop further behind the associated
cold front. Therefore, snow chances continue over the mountains,
but PW values start to drop as drier air behind the trough axis
slips in fast, which should reduce snow amounts in the higher
elevations.

Another upper ridge moves in on Tuesday bringing drier and
slightly warmer air to the forecast. However, this ridge is not
going to last long as we have another upper disturbance moving
quickly through the area, but it looks like a very dry system.
Afterwards, a broad trough develops over in the east Pacific which
will set a northwest flow over southern New Mexico and far west
Texas bringing near seasonal temperatures in the area by
Thursday.

&&

29-Crespo

.FIRE WEATHER...
Generally dry and fair weather conditions persist through Sunday. Min
RH`s will be in the 30s and lower 40s through Saturday, but
increase into the 40s and 50s through Tuesday as the next storm
system moves in. This system approaches the region on Sunday with
precipitation chances through Monday night. Light snow
accumulations may be possible in area mountains. Also, breezy
conditions will develop on Sunday afternoon, as well as windy
conditions are possible in the eastern portions of Hudspeth and
Otero counties. Fair weather returns for Tuesday and Wednesday.
However, the next upper level system approaches next Thursday,
but it is looking weak and it does not bring much moisture with
it.

Vent rates will be poor through Saturday, but improve on Sunday
and Monday due to stronger transport winds. Cooler temperatures
and light winds result in a drop of vent rates for next Tuesday
and Wednesday.

&&

29-Crespo

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 41  65  46  65 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           39  66  41  66 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              38  63  42  61 /   0   0   0  10
Alamogordo              37  63  39  60 /   0   0   0  30
Cloudcroft              33  48  33  44 /   0   0   0  40
Truth or Consequences   37  59  41  56 /   0   0   0  30
Silver City             36  59  40  50 /   0   0   0  50
Deming                  36  63  40  59 /   0   0   0  30
Lordsburg               37  62  41  56 /   0   0   0  50
West El Paso Metro      42  65  46  64 /   0   0   0  10
Dell City               36  66  38  67 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            40  70  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              40  62  44  60 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  39  68  44  67 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            38  64  41  63 /   0   0   0  10
White Sands HQ          40  64  44  62 /   0   0   0  10
Jornada Range           35  62  40  60 /   0   0   0  20
Hatch                   37  63  40  61 /   0   0   0  20
Columbus                38  64  42  61 /   0   0   0  20
Orogrande               38  63  40  62 /   0   0   0  20
Mayhill                 36  60  38  55 /   0   0   0  30
Mescalero               33  55  33  50 /   0   0   0  40
Timberon                33  55  33  52 /   0   0   0  30
Winston                 33  58  36  50 /   0   0   0  40
Hillsboro               35  61  39  56 /   0   0   0  30
Spaceport               36  60  39  57 /   0   0   0  20
Lake Roberts            31  59  36  49 /   0   0   0  60
Hurley                  35  61  39  54 /   0   0   0  40
Cliff                   32  63  35  55 /   0   0   0  50
Mule Creek              36  60  41  50 /   0   0   0  60
Faywood                 37  61  41  55 /   0   0   0  30
Animas                  37  64  41  58 /   0   0   0  40
Hachita                 35  64  38  58 /   0   0   0  40
Antelope Wells          40  67  42  62 /   0   0   0  30
Cloverdale              42  62  44  55 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/99
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
