Text Products for AFD Issued by EPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
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FXUS64 KEPZ 090733
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
133 AM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 110 AM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023

The warm and dry trend continues throughout the period with a
steady increase in temperatures through next week. Breezy to windy
conditions will persist Sunday and Monday afternoon. The first 100
degree day in El Paso will likely occur towards the end of next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 AM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023

A fairly persistent pattern will set up through most of the
period with a low pressure system over the west coast and weak
ridging over the NM/TX border area. This will keep winds out of
the west and the area dry with no rain chances through this period
and potentially even longer than that. A weak shortwave trough
will push through today creating some mid to high clouds and
breezy conditions along the border area with some scattered virga
possible. Sunday the low pressure system over the west coast will
shift eastward increasing the pressure gradient and winds
throughout the area. Wind gusts over 30mph are possible west of
the Rio Grande and along the east slopes in the Tularosa Basin.
Winds decrease slightly Monday into Tuesday, but will still remain
breezy. Temperatures will start to increase this weekend as well,
reaching into the upper 90s for El Paso and into the 100s along
the Lower Rio Grand Valley.

A weak shortwave will push through Wednesday evening, which will
shift the pattern going into the late week and weekend. Upper
level ridging will start to build into the area Thursday, bringing
lighting winds and more heat with it. This ridging pattern will
likely be the best shot for El Paso to reach 100F, with 102F in
the official forecast for Thursday. This hot trend will last into
the weekend and will likely be the first multiple days of higher
heat we`ve seen this season. Heat related illnesses may be
possible and messaging for hydration and finding places to cool
off will need to start up this week. Low temperatures will not
drop below 70F either, so any break in the heat will be limited
late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1124 PM MDT Thu Jun 8 2023

VFR conditions expected through the period. High clouds will be
moving in through the area. Winds will be generally below 10 kts
through 16-18Z. Tomorrow aft 18Z winds will increase again to
10-15kts with gusts 20-25kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 110 AM MDT Fri Jun 9 2023

Due to the dry conditions and RH values below 15% for most of the
period, there will be elevated fire weather conditions during the
afternoon with the breezy winds. Fire concerns will increase
Sunday to critical as the higher winds move into the area with
20ft winds in the high teens to low 20s, especially in the Gila
region. Lower ERC percentiles will the limiting factor for fire
conditions as winds and RH will reach Red Flag warning criteria
west of the Rio Grand Valley. A fire weather watch has been held
off for now, but trends will be monitored going into the weekend
for a possible Red Flag Warning Sunday. Monday the winds die down
slightly, with near critical fire weather conditions over the
area but will decrease even more into next week as winds weaken
even more.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  92  66  96  69 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            86  60  90  62 /  10  10   0   0
Las Cruces               89  59  94  63 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               88  57  92  60 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               66  44  68  47 /  10   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    87  57  91  60 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              76  52  83  54 /  10   0   0   0
Deming                   86  52  93  56 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                83  53  91  56 /  10   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       88  63  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                92  57  94  60 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             93  61  97  63 /  10   0   0   0
Loma Linda               84  60  86  63 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   92  62  95  65 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             87  57  92  62 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           89  65  92  67 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            87  57  91  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    87  56  92  60 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 87  57  94  62 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                87  57  91  60 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  80  50  81  52 /  10   0   0   0
Mescalero                76  48  78  49 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 76  48  77  49 /  10   0   0   0
Winston                  77  49  81  51 /  10   0   0   0
Hillsboro                84  54  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                87  54  91  57 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             78  47  83  50 /  10   0   0   0
Hurley                   81  50  88  52 /  10   0   0   0
Cliff                    85  42  91  45 /  10   0   0   0
Mule Creek               79  50  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  81  54  87  55 /  10   0   0   0
Animas                   85  53  91  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  84  54  91  57 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           85  54  91  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               80  54  85  55 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01-Barham
LONG TERM....01-Barham
AVIATION...14-Bird
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
