949
FXUS64 KEPZ 211136
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
536 AM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 214 AM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024

The Borderland will keep this juicy airmass through next week
allowing for rain chances each day. Low end breeziness can be
expected today becoming light Saturday and onward. Temperatures
will gradually increase starting this afternoon through mid-week
next week. Triple digits for the lowlands could return as early as
Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 AM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Mid level high pressure will remain over the deep south today
allowing for moisture to stay locked in place. Dewpoints will be
quite juicy for the Borderland with values of 55-60F and PWs will
be 1.6-1.7" which is well above daily records (max value of 1.3").
Instability is somewhat lacking (400-800J/kg) but could be enough
for storms today in areas of clearing skies but expecting the
area to be socked in with clouds today making it difficult to
discern what the trigger will be or if there`ll be one at all.
Area mountains should generally be favored for a lifting mechanism
but should expect mostly stratiform rain with possible stronger
cells. Storm motions look to be 10-20KT. Storms will be heavy rain
producers if it can tap into decent instability. The latest CAMs
are suggesting this as well but is showing pretty good agreement
on stronger storms over current wildfires near Ruidoso posing a
risk for flash flooding over the burn scars. Thus, a flood watch
will continue in this area again today. Lingering showers should
continue into early tonight then dissipating.

The aforementioned high pressure will become flattened and broad,
kicking out some moisture to AZ by Saturday. PWs will be ~1" out
east and 1.3" out west which is still well above average. Very
light winds will be seen tomorrow and Sunday keeping storm
motions very slow as well (5-10KT). Area mountains should be
favored for storm activity. These storms will be slower moving as
shear is very low to nothing. If storms are able to get going in
this environment, they will be heavy rain producers that will not
move very much leading to some flooding potential. High pressure
migrates west and parks itself over the Borderland by Sunday. PWs
will remain above average (1.1") with a similar setup to Saturday.
Again, if storms can get going - this could lead to some flooding.

High pressure remains stagnant over the area Monday and through
the work week. Moisture trapped under high pressure will be
enough for storm chances each day with dewpoints 50-55F with above
average PWs (~1.2"-1.4"). Storms should initiate over the area
mountains and their outflows would trigger storms in the lowlands.
This has the look of typical monsoon thunderstorms (daytime
heating initiating storms over the mountains, spreading the
lowlands, dissipating showers later in the evening), but high
pressure is in the wrong location to truly call this a monsoon.

Temperatures will gradually increase starting today through
Wednesday where triple digits return possibly by Sunday. Highs of
around 104-107F possible heading into mid-week next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 529 AM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Low end southeasterly breezes will continue for most TAF sites
this morning becoming 15-18G25-28KT after 18Z. Winds decrease
after 00Z. Showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon but
confidence is not high enough to mention in TAF. KDMN and KTCS
have the best chance of seeing a storm this afternoon (~20Z-00Z).
Expect light rain showers this morning for much of the area with
some embedded stronger storms here and there. Could become MVFR
near storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 214 AM MDT Fri Jun 21 2024

Breezy southeast winds will be seen today with min RHs in the
30-65% range. Showers and thunderstorms expected today through at
least mid-week. Showers and thunderstorms have the potential for
flash flooding today through mid-week next week. Burn scar areas
will continue to be very susceptible to flash flooding.

20ft winds generally remain southeasterly and very light
(5-10mph) Saturday through mid-week. Min RHs gradually decrease
over the next few days with values reaching near critical to
critical thresholds as soon as Sunday for some locations in the
desert lowlands. Area mountain RHs will be 30-60% today and
tomorrow decreasing to 20-40% Monday through Wednesday.

Ventilation rates will be generally good to very good each day.
High temperatures will be 5-15 degrees below average today,
reaching near normal temperatures by Sunday. Temperatures stay
above average starting Monday lasting through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  93  77  97  78 /  40  20   0   0
Sierra Blanca            87  65  90  68 /  40  20   0   0
Las Cruces               89  71  96  72 /  30  30  10  10
Alamogordo               86  66  93  70 /  50  30  20  10
Cloudcroft               63  49  69  53 /  70  30  30  10
Truth or Consequences    81  70  91  73 /  50  50  40  30
Silver City              77  66  86  67 /  50  50  50  40
Deming                   86  69  95  70 /  50  50  20  20
Lordsburg                85  72  95  71 /  50  50  50  30
West El Paso Metro       90  74  95  76 /  30  20  10   0
Dell City                90  66  95  68 /  50  10   0   0
Fort Hancock             93  68  97  70 /  30  10   0   0
Loma Linda               84  66  89  70 /  30  10   0   0
Fabens                   93  71  97  73 /  30  10   0   0
Santa Teresa             89  70  94  71 /  30  20  10  10
White Sands HQ           86  74  93  78 /  40  30  10  10
Jornada Range            84  66  94  70 /  40  30  20  10
Hatch                    83  69  95  70 /  50  40  20  20
Columbus                 87  73  96  73 /  40  40  10  10
Orogrande                86  69  93  72 /  50  20  10  10
Mayhill                  73  53  80  57 /  70  20  30  10
Mescalero                72  53  79  57 /  70  30  30  20
Timberon                 72  50  79  55 /  60  20  20  10
Winston                  73  57  82  62 /  60  40  60  40
Hillsboro                78  66  89  70 /  50  50  50  30
Spaceport                80  65  93  67 /  50  40  20  20
Lake Roberts             77  61  86  63 /  50  50  60  40
Hurley                   80  64  89  65 /  50  60  40  30
Cliff                    88  65  95  66 /  40  40  60  30
Mule Creek               84  68  89  70 /  40  30  70  40
Faywood                  77  66  89  69 /  50  50  40  30
Animas                   85  71  95  70 /  50  50  40  30
Hachita                  85  69  95  67 /  50  60  30  20
Antelope Wells           85  68  95  68 /  60  70  40  30
Cloverdale               80  68  90  67 /  60  60  50  30

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flash Flood Watch until 6 AM MDT early this morning for NMZ415-
     416.

     Flood Watch from noon MDT today through this evening for NMZ415-
     416.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher