Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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845 FXUS64 KEPZ 102343 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 543 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 130 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Temperatures are expected to soar once again in the days ahead. Triple digit heat will be a daily occurrence for the lowlands with warmer than normal temps extending into the mountains as well. A few spotty thunderstorms could still develop during the afternoons over the Sacramento mountains, but most other areas will remain dry. Fire weather concerns will increase across western areas later in the week as winds pick up in that region. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 130 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Despite plentiful sunshine this afternoon, most lowland areas will manage to narrowly avoid the triple digit mark for a second day in a row as an upper low meanders just to our north for one last day. This upper feature will slowly shift eastward over the next few days, allowing a rather strong subtropical ridge to develop over the Borderland Wednesday through Friday. This will result in widespread triple digit heat over the lowlands with 80s and 90s over the mountains. In general temps will run some 10-15 degrees above seasonal norms for the Wednesday thru Friday time frame. As a result, an Excessive Heat Watch has been issued for most areas Wednesday thru Friday. Some areas will approach 110 by Thursday, thus the potential for an Extreme Heat Warning will exist later this week. Meanwhile rainfall will be hard to come by with the exception of the higher terrain across the east. We will continue to see a sharp moisture gradient across the region the next several days with dew points in the teens and 20`s out west and higher dewpoints in the 40`s and 50`s across far eastern areas. In between we will see the typical sloshing back and forth of the moisture with moist air washing westward during the overnight hours and then being chased back east once daytime mixing becomes established. Winds are not expected to be overly strong and gusty until much later this week. By Friday and Saturday models show a weak trough ejecting across the desert southwest, thus flattening the ridge somewhat. At this point in time it appears that only a small amount of cooling will accompany the trough passage, thus expect temps to remain much above normal through the weekend and into early next week. However the trough passage will bring stronger winds to the western half of the region Friday and Saturday. These winds combined with extremely dry conditions will likely result in increased fire weather concerns later in the forecast period. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 539 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024 VFR conditions with northerly breezes will be seen tonight, shifting slightly to the northeast after 03Z. Southwest breezes return again tomorrow afternoon but will stay fairly mild at 10G20KT or so. Skies will continue clearing tonight and the area should be mostly clear by 06Z. Area mountain thunderstorms possible again tomorrow afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 130 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Elevated to near-critical fire conditions to continue into this weekend as dry airmass continues despite brief increase in dewpoints during the overnights. A few mountain thunderstorms are possible during the afternoons, mainly over the Sacramentos. There could be occasionally gusty winds associated with these storms. Near record high temperatures will develop by Thursday into the weekend. Will have to watch Friday as an upper level trough passes across the area. Winds overall don`t look too significant but winds over the Gila/Black Range will increase and we could see RFW conditions develop over that zone. Min RHs: Lowlands 6-12% through Saturday. Mountains-Gila 9-14% through Saturday; Sacramentos 20-30% Tuesday decreasing to 10-20% Wednesday through Saturday. Vent rates very good to excellent through Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 72 103 75 106 / 10 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 63 96 67 99 / 10 0 0 10 Las Cruces 66 102 70 105 / 10 0 0 0 Alamogordo 62 97 65 102 / 10 10 10 10 Cloudcroft 48 73 51 78 / 20 30 10 20 Truth or Consequences 65 98 70 102 / 10 10 10 0 Silver City 60 92 63 97 / 10 10 0 10 Deming 62 100 65 104 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 62 99 64 103 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 70 100 73 103 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 62 99 65 101 / 10 10 0 10 Fort Hancock 64 102 67 106 / 0 0 0 10 Loma Linda 63 93 67 97 / 10 0 0 10 Fabens 66 102 70 106 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 64 99 67 102 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 71 98 75 102 / 10 0 0 10 Jornada Range 60 98 65 103 / 10 0 10 0 Hatch 60 100 64 104 / 10 10 10 0 Columbus 65 99 69 104 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 63 97 69 101 / 20 10 10 10 Mayhill 52 84 54 88 / 20 40 10 20 Mescalero 51 84 54 89 / 10 20 10 10 Timberon 49 83 53 87 / 20 20 10 20 Winston 53 89 57 94 / 10 20 10 10 Hillsboro 62 95 65 99 / 10 10 10 10 Spaceport 57 97 62 101 / 10 10 10 0 Lake Roberts 55 92 59 97 / 10 10 10 10 Hurley 57 96 61 99 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 57 100 60 105 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 62 94 65 99 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 60 94 64 98 / 10 10 0 0 Animas 60 99 65 104 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 61 98 65 103 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 62 99 65 103 / 0 0 10 0 Cloverdale 62 94 65 99 / 0 0 0 0 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Friday night for TXZ418>424. NM...Excessive Heat Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Friday night for NMZ401-404>407-409>411-417-427>429. && $$ FORECASTER...37-Slusher