929
FXUS64 KEPZ 170530
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1130 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 104 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Hot and dry conditions will continue through Wednesday for most of
the area. Cooler and wetter conditions will start to move into the
area Thursday though the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 104 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

The upper level ridge building into the area will create very hot
conditions over the area. El Paso is currently 4-5 degrees higher
then yesterday already so the 75th percentile from NBM was
utilized and has a high of 108F. Temperatures will push the local
records today with El Paso`s record for the 16th of 108F in 1980.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1129 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions through the period with SKC. Surface winds
west/northwest AOB 8 knots, increasing after 18Z to
west/southwest 13-18G25 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 104 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Extremely dry conditions will be observed over the area through
Tuesday with single digit RH values throughout much of the region.
Winds will remain relatively light with sustained 20ft winds below
20mph, but some gusts could get near 20mph in the afternoons.
Wednesday a surge of moisture pushes into the area and increases
RH over 20-30 percent for most of the region. Winds will increase
with this moisture surge with 30-40mph gusts possible over the
Gila Forest Thursday. Rain chances steadily increase after Friday
into the weekend where most the area will likely see some light
precipitation and a few areas may see moderate rainfall by
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  76 106  76 102 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            68 101  68  97 /   0   0  10   0
Las Cruces               69 103  68  99 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               67 102  66  98 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               54  79  52  75 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    69 101  66  97 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              62  91  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   64 102  62  98 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                65  99  63  96 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       73 102  72  98 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                65 104  65  99 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Hancock             68 107  67 103 /   0   0  10   0
Loma Linda               67  96  66  93 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   70 105  70 101 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             68 101  67  98 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           75 101  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            65 101  63  98 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    64 102  64  99 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 70 102  68  98 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                68 101  66  97 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  57  92  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                57  89  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 55  88  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  56  91  51  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                65  97  63  94 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                62  99  58  97 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             58  91  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   60  95  58  93 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    58 100  55  97 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               63  93  59  90 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  63  94  60  92 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   64  99  61  97 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  64  99  62  97 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           65  98  61  96 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               63  92  60  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Tuesday for TXZ418-419-423-424.

NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Monday for NMZ411.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt