534
FXUS64 KEPZ 221035
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
435 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 430 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Fall arrives today and though the temperatures won`t be Fall like
yet, they will be a little cooler. High temperatures today will be
near seasonal averages and a little below average on Monday. High
temperatures for the rest of the coming week will run at or a few
degrees above average. We will have dry conditions today and a
slight chance for rain for Monday and Tuesday, but then the dry
weather returns as we finish out the coming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

As Fall arrives this morning, we will see some cooler weather
today and tomorrow. The temperatures won`t be Fall like with highs
in the 80`s, but hey we`ll take any cooling we can get. What will
be nice is that the low temperatures will also drop several
degrees and that will feel nice each morning. High temperatures
today will be near average and on Monday on the back side of a
back door front, we will see high temperatures actually a few
degrees below average. Now don`t break out you pumpkin spice
lattes and all your sweaters. By Tuesday of this week, upper level
high pressure will begin to push into the region and that will
bump our high temperatures up a few degrees. By the end of the
week our high temperatures will creep a few degrees above average.
That means many lowland locations will be near or a little above
90 for high temperatures. The good news is that low temperatures
will continue to be in the 50`s and 60`s in the lowlands and even
in the 40`s in area mountains. Chances for rain will be limited
this week. Before the upper level ridge completely moves into the
area we will see a slight chance for rain on Monday and Tuesday
for locations east of the Rio Grande. Once the upper level ridge
is centered over the region by mid week, we will be hard pressed
to see any rain chances. The upper level ridge looks to weaken by
the end of the week, but things look to stay warm and dry as we
head into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1049 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with skies SKC. Winds
light to low-end breezy at 6-12 knots out of W. Winds will become
NWerly during the overnight remaining light at 5-10 knots.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 430 AM MDT Sun Sep 22 2024

We will be mostly dry this week. Winds today will come around to
the east or southeast and we may see some low end gusty winds on
the east slopes of area mountains. For Monday through much of this
week, our winds will be from the south or southeast, but stay well
below critical levels. We will be dry today, there is a slight
chance for rain on Monday and Tuesday, for locations east of the
Rio Grande but the rest of the coming week we will stay dry. Min
RH`s today will be in the teens in the lowlands and above 20% in
area mountains. Some extra moisture slips into the area for the
first few days of this week, so min RH`s will be at or above 20%
for the area. By the end of the week, we will see min RH`s drop a
little. Ventilation rates the next couple of days will range from
fair to good.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  89  62  85  66 /   0   0  20  20
Sierra Blanca            85  56  77  58 /   0  10  40  30
Las Cruces               86  56  85  61 /   0   0  10  10
Alamogordo               85  54  84  58 /   0   0  10  10
Cloudcroft               63  39  63  43 /  10   0  20  10
Truth or Consequences    82  54  84  58 /   0   0   0  10
Silver City              78  51  80  54 /   0   0  10  10
Deming                   86  55  85  58 /   0   0  10  10
Lordsburg                83  56  85  58 /   0   0   0  10
West El Paso Metro       87  61  82  66 /   0   0  20  20
Dell City                86  55  81  59 /   0   0  20  10
Fort Hancock             91  59  84  63 /   0  10  40  30
Loma Linda               81  54  76  58 /   0   0  30  20
Fabens                   89  59  82  63 /   0   0  30  20
Santa Teresa             85  58  81  61 /   0   0  20  20
White Sands HQ           86  59  83  63 /   0   0  20  10
Jornada Range            85  54  84  58 /   0   0  10  10
Hatch                    86  53  86  58 /   0   0  10  10
Columbus                 85  58  83  61 /   0   0  10  10
Orogrande                84  54  82  58 /   0   0  20  10
Mayhill                  68  42  75  47 /  10  10  20  10
Mescalero                73  42  74  46 /  10   0  10  10
Timberon                 71  42  71  45 /   0   0  20  10
Winston                  74  43  77  46 /   0   0  10  10
Hillsboro                81  50  83  54 /   0   0  10  10
Spaceport                83  50  84  56 /   0   0  10  10
Lake Roberts             78  46  80  48 /   0   0  10  10
Hurley                   81  49  81  53 /   0   0  10  10
Cliff                    86  48  89  51 /   0   0  10  10
Mule Creek               80  51  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  80  51  80  56 /   0   0  10  10
Animas                   85  54  85  57 /   0   0   0  10
Hachita                  83  54  83  56 /   0   0  10  10
Antelope Wells           85  53  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               81  54  82  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...15-Brice