433
FXUS64 KEPZ 232028
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
228 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Mostly quiet weather conditions are expected through early next
week. There is only a slight chance for thunderstorms across
portions of the Hudspeth County this afternoon and on Tuesday
afternoon. The temperatures will gradually warm a couple of
degrees each consecutive day a least through the weekend as high
pressure dominates out weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Currently, conditions are quiet and they should stay so for much
of the area except maybe at Hudspeth county where there is a
slight chance for thunderstorms this afternoon. For tonight, any
storms that do develop across the Hudspeth county during this
afternoon will diminish at least before midnight. The winds will
be light and to low end breezy except in and around a
thunderstorm. The flow near the surface will be from the
southeast; thus, the low temperatures on Tuesday morning will be
above the normal. For Tuesday, conditions will be somewhat similar
to today. High pressure will begin to build in with slight
troughing across portions of the eastern CWA. With troughing,
moisture and instability across Hudspeth county, there will be a
slight chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Any storms
that develop then, will not be severe in nature. The strongest
storms should any develop will be this afternoon across the
aforementioned area. With a ridge building in, the high
temperatures in the afternoon will be a couple of degrees warmer
than what the high temperatures will be this afternoon across the
entire area.

For the rest of the period, conditions will continue to be quiet
as the upper level ridge remains across much of the far Southwest
being blocked by a low across the Southern Mississippi Valley and
the South Plains. Toward the end of the week, the ridge elongates
across the far south and into the Midwest as shortwave trough digs
across the Pacific Southwest. Each day through the weekend the
temperatures will gradually increase a few degrees reaching to
above the normal areawide by the earliest on Wednesday. By Monday,
this trough will eject into the Rockies while flattening out this
ridge allowing for the temperatures to cool to at or below the
normal by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1104 AM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the
TAF sites with CIG FEW250 and SKC. The winds will be generally
light below 10 kts and variable in direction. There will be no
reduction in the VSBY across the runways.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Generally quiet weather is expected this afternoon with just a
slight chance for active across the Hudsepth county. There will
be some moisture in the area that will aide in showers and
thunderstorm develop. Tonight recovery will be good to excellent.
For Tuesday, drier air will move in. There may still be a slight
chance for an afternoon thunderstorm across the Hudspeth county.
The winds will be light to low end breezy and temperatures near
the normal areawide. For the rest of the period, conditions will
be quiet. The winds will be light to breezy while the temperatures
gradually increase a degree or two each consecutive day through
the end of the week. With that said, there will be no fire weather
concerns this week.

The min RHs on Tuesday will be between 16 and 25% in the low
elevations and between 30 and 40% in the high elevations. The min
RHs on Wednesday will be somewhat similar to that of Tuesday. The
ventilation rates will be poor to good on Tuesday then poor to
excellent on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  66  92  67  92 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            58  84  58  83 /  10  10   0   0
Las Cruces               60  90  62  91 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               58  89  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               43  66  44  66 /   0  10   0   0
Truth or Consequences    58  87  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              55  83  57  83 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   57  90  60  91 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                58  89  61  90 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       66  89  67  90 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                57  89  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             61  91  62  91 /  10  10   0   0
Loma Linda               59  84  60  83 /  10  10   0   0
Fabens                   61  90  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             61  88  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           63  89  65  89 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            58  88  60  89 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    57  90  57  91 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 60  89  62  90 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                58  86  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  48  78  47  76 /   0  10   0   0
Mescalero                47  77  47  78 /   0  10   0   0
Timberon                 46  75  48  75 /   0  10   0   0
Winston                  46  80  48  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                54  86  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                55  87  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             48  83  49  83 /   0  10   0   0
Hurley                   53  85  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    50  91  53  93 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               54  85  57  87 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  56  84  58  85 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   56  89  59  91 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  56  88  58  89 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           58  88  60  90 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               58  84  61  86 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...36-Texeira