Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
609 FOUS30 KWBC 261523 QPFERD Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1123 AM EDT Thu Sep 26 2024 Day 1 Valid 16Z Thu Sep 26 2024 - 12Z Fri Sep 27 2024 ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE NORTH CAROLINA BLUE RIDGE... ...WIDESPREAD AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING LIKELY... ...16Z Update... The overperformance of the predecessor rain event (PRE) that is still ongoing from Georgia north as of this writing has only worsened the potential impacts from Helene as it approaches the Big Bend region of the Florida Panhandle. Just in the last 24 hours, a huge swath of rainfall of 3 inches or more has fallen in the High Risk area and extending north into southwest Virginia and much of southern West Virginia. All of this rain from the PRE will be in addition to the very heavy rainfall produced by the circulation of Helene itself. Given these now much more favorable preexisting soil conditions and full rivers, and in coordination with FFC/Peachtree City, GA; GSP/Greer, SC; and RNK/Blacksburg, VA forecast offices, the previous 2 High Risk areas were connected to each other and expanded eastward with this latest update. The High Risk now includes metro Atlanta, and still includes Tallahassee, FL, Asheville, NC, and Greenville, SC. The Moderate Risk was expanded to include metro Charlotte, NC, as well as Savannah, GA with this update as well. Part of the rationale for connecting the two High Risk areas across central Georgia is the combined impact potential of strong winds knocking out power, downed trees, and the potential for blocked drainage from that debris when 4+ inches of rain falls across the entire swath of the High Risk area. The greatest certainty for widespread and catastrophic flash flooding impacts will be in the mountains of the Carolinas. Strong southeasterly flow into the southern Appalachians will result in enhanced upslope. This will effectively squeeze out additional moisture, which Helene will bring in spades, resulting in much higher rainfall totals into the Carolinas. 24 hour totals in much of the higher resolution guidance suggest 8-12 inches of rain between now and Friday morning in this area. Given the sensitivity of this area to heavy rainfall, that amount of rain on top of the 4 to 6 inches (broadly, locally higher) that has already fallen. This will lead to numerous flash floods with catastrophic flash flooding likely. For the Moderate Risk area, the expansion of the Moderate along the GA/SC border to the coast was primarily for the combination of river and tidal flooding with high tide expected mid to late afternoon. Training storms are developing and tracking north off the coast of Florida and Georgia. These storms are on a beeline for the Savannah and Beaufort areas, which is in addition to the 2-3 inches of rain that has already fallen in that area. Further, once the circulation center of Helene gets closer to landfall this evening, the high-resolution guidance is in good agreement that a training band will form along the border with cells tracking northwestward towards the center of circulation. Thus, greater impacts are expected in those areas and the Moderate Risk was expanded. Elsewhere the Moderate Risk was expanded east largely due to the overperformance of the PRE, which has greatly increased the flooding potential impacts into the Piedmont of the Carolinas. The latest guidance has also shifted a bit to the north and east with the westward branch of heavy rain tracking from southeast Tennessee northwestward to southern Illinois. Thus, minor trims/downgrades were made for Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, and Missouri. Conversely, upgrades were made further to the north across the Ohio Valley. Finally, a strong and unrelated-to-Helene-wave of moisture is currently tracking across the very dry New England. Given the start of fall with leaf debris blocking drainage ditches and a reasonably long time of up to 1 inch per hour rainfall rates, a Marginal Risk was added. Wegman ...Previous Discussion... Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and urban flooding is expected...including numerous major damaging landslides in the terrain...today across portions of the southern Appalachians into Friday morning due to the cumulative effects of heavy rain that fell on Wednesday plus additional rainfall today. Once Helene makes landfall...the storm is forecast to continue on a north and then northwestward path by the overnight hours of Thursday night/early Friday morning. This leaves a prolonged period of strong upslope flow directed into the complex terrain of the southern Appalachians. Considerable to locally catastrophic flash flooding is also likely for northwestern and northern Florida and a portion of the Southeast United States...with widespread minor to moderate river flooding..given the combined effects of a stripe of heavy to excessive rainfall that fell on Wednesday and Wednesday night plus any rain that falls today /Thursday/. Most of the model guidance was aligned closely with the latest NHC track guidance...keeping their QPF amounts and placement in play as a component for the Excessive Rainfall Outlook. The 26/05Z WPC QPF had a widespread swath of 4 to 7 inches along the Helene`s path...with isolated maximum amounts in excess of a foot in the mountainous terrain of the Appalachians in South Carolina and North Carolina. Given decent run to run continuity...few changes were needed to the on-going high risk area there. Near the Florida panhandle coastline...expanded the High risk area somewhat to the north and to the east based on the 12-hour MRMS amounts showing spotty amounts 6 inches or 7 inches amounts already fell as part of the PRE before the Day 1 period began. The expectation was that the soils were already getting watter logged before the arrival of Helene`s center. The development of a deep layer cyclone over portions of the Mississippi valley will start to pull some of the tropical moisture westward from Helene across parts of the Tennessee Valley. Maintained the Slight Risk area here. Even though there has been some disagreement in the guidance on the exact placement of the axis but was close enough to result in only some minor adjustments to the previously-issued Slight risk. Bann Day 2 Valid 12Z Fri Sep 27 2024 - 12Z Sat Sep 28 2024 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... The flow of moisture laden air into the east face of the Appalachians should be on-going given the latest NHC guidance. With an additional 2 to 3+ inches of rain to overlap with the footprint of 12 to 15 inches of rainfall in the previous 48 hours...maintained a Moderate risk even though those amounts typically do not trigger a Moderate risk, As the center of the system continues into the Tennessee Valley...additional rainfall amounts to the east of the mountains should be tapering off. Farther west...convection should start to become better rainfall producers over portions of the Mississippi and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys as the deeper moisture encounters steepening low- and mid- level lapse rates near the center of the deep-layered cyclone...which has started to work in tandem with what had been Helene. Only minor adjustments to the previously-issued Slight risk area were needed based on the latest guidance. Bann Day 3 Valid 12Z Sat Sep 28 2024 - 12Z Sun Sep 29 2024 ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION... Rainfall from the Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley will begin to spread eastward with considerably less moisture to work with than before. As a result...expected rainfall amounts do not appear to be enough to result in significant problems. In addition...the track over during the latter part of the day should be north of areas soaked in the Days 1 and 2 period. Made some adjustments to the orientation from the inherited ERO but the overall forecast rationale has changed little. Bann Day 1 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt Day 2 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt Day 3 threat area: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt