Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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173 FXUS64 KEWX 031925 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 225 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Scattered to broken cloud cover continues to hold on for most places and has kept temperatures a bit lower, but with some breaks, we should see highs warming later this afternoon. Will continue the Heat Advisory out west for this afternoon. Most of the area should remain dry today and tonight but there are two possible areas to watch for possible activity in our CWA. The first is in the southwestern CWA late this afternoon or evening. Already seeing one storm well west of the Rio Grande and some of this activity could push east of the Rio Grande later today. In addition, latest runs of the HRRR had shown some lower chances of some possible activity in the Fort Worth CWA clipping out northeastern counties this evening. Will include a 20 PoP for both of these regions for now for the overall low chance of rain with the higher probabilities of no rain. Instability is high and therefore, can`t rule out a strong storm with anything that does affect the CWA late this afternoon and evening. Large hail and perhaps damaging winds would be the main risk associated with any stronger storm. The remainder of the area overnight will be rain free with warm temperatures continuing. Should see another round of low clouds for most of the area with lows in the middle 70s to near 80 degrees. Mostly dry weather is expected tomorrow with temperatures on the increase. The low-level thermal profile warms by 2-3C tomorrow which should lead to a 3-4 degree increase in highs tomorrow compared to today. Will likely need a Heat Advisory for most of the CWA tomorrow outside of the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau for the expected elevated heat index values. Another round of nocturnal stratus and lows in the middle 70s to near 80 degrees can be expected tomorrow night into early Wednesday morning. Heat Precautions: Never leave people and/or pets alone within a closed car, stay hydrated with plenty of water, wear loose-fitting and light colored clothing, and take frequent breaks within the shade and air conditioning. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 The hot weather conditions continue on Wednesday through the extended forecast period. Another Heat Advisory is likely for most of South-Central Texas on Wednesday as heat index values are forecast to range from 108 to 112 over parts of the Hill Country, I-35 corridor and coastal Plains and up to 117 along the Rio Grande. By Thursday, the subtropical high builds across the desert southwest and continues through the latter part of the work week into the weekend. The subtropical ridge is forecast to slowly moves to the east through next week. In the mean time, several upper short waves are forecast to move across the southern plains through the period, and provide enough lift and instability for storms to develop to the north and east of the local area while we remain dry. As far as temperatures go, they are going to be slightly above the normal climate values (95-100) across the Hill Country, I-35 and coastal plains and well-above climate normals for areas along the Rio Grande where afternoon highs could range from the 100 to 106 degrees. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Mon Jun 3 2024 Cloud cover is holding on, but is in the process of lifting into VFR categories. Should see VFR continue for the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours. Another round of MVFR is expected tonight as low-level moisture continues to be in place. Most locations will remain rain free, but there is an outside shot of a shower or thunderstorm impacting AUS this evening. Overall probabilities were too low to mention in the TAFs. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 77 97 77 96 / 30 10 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 76 97 78 96 / 20 10 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 77 99 77 99 / 10 10 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 74 95 75 94 / 20 10 10 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 81 106 81 109 / 10 0 0 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 75 96 76 95 / 30 10 10 10 Hondo Muni Airport 78 102 78 101 / 10 10 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 76 98 77 97 / 10 10 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 78 95 78 94 / 20 0 10 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 78 100 78 99 / 10 10 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 79 101 79 101 / 10 10 10 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for Atascosa-Dimmit-Frio- Maverick-Zavala. && $$ Short-Term...29 Long-Term...17 Aviation...29