301
FXUS64 KEWX 171733
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1233 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

A blocky pattern aloft continues over the CONUS region. Shortwaves
rotating through troughing over the western states, ridging over
Mexico extending to over Texas to the Great Lakes, and the remnants
of Francine over the eastern states absorbing the remnants of PTC 8.
CAMs show a few very isolated showers possible from portions of the
Hill Country to across the I-35 corridor to near the Coastal Plains
this afternoon into early evening due to heating along a dissipating
surface boundary. However, chances around 10 percent are too low to
mention, at this time. The boundary is gone by Wednesday with no
showers expected. Well above average, summer-like temperatures
continue due to lower level thermal ridging.

Some of our climate sites will approach record highs today the 17th
of September. See CLIMATE section below for details.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Upper level ridging dominates the local area through the upcoming
weekend. At the surface, a moist southerly flow is forecast to take
control through the period with overnight lows in the mid to upper
60s across the Hill Country to the mid and upper 70s along the I-35
corridor, Rio Grande and Coastal Plains areas. High temperatures are
forecast to be above the normal climate values for several locations
ranging from low to mid 90s and even near 100 across the southern
part of the Rio Grande.

Any shower activity from Wednesday night through Sunday morning is
likely limited to the Coastal Plains. From Sunday morning into the
afternoon, an upper level short wave trough is forecast to move
across the Texas panhandle continuing into the central and eastern
parts of the Central Plains. At the surface, a cold front stretches
from the Central Plains southwestward into west Texas. The frontal
boundary lingers to the northwest of South Central Texas through the
period. There is a slight chance for showers across the southern
Edwards Plateau on Sunday afternoon as an upper level disturbance
pushes over that area.

The work week begins with dry conditions for most areas with lows
and highs closer to the normal values for the season.

Beyond the extended forecast period: A stronger and deeper upper
level short wave trough is forecast to push across South Central
Texas on Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to push across the
local area on Wednesday afternoon based on the GFS solution. The
ECMWF keeps the frontal boundary to the north of the local area.
Long story short, if the GFS solution is on track, then rain chances
are possible with cooler temps mid to late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

VFR conditions have returned for the afternoon and evening at all
terminals. Southerly to southeasterly winds will continue to bring
warm, moist air to the region. MVFR ceilings will develop before
sunrise Wednesday and last until around noon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 139 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024

Record High Temperatures

                     Sep 17

Austin Bergstrom....99 (2005*)
Austin Camp Mabry...99 (2021)
Del Rio............103 (2021)
San Antonio.........98 (1997)

* denotes previous years

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              75  98  76  99 /  10   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  98  75  98 /  10   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  99  76  99 /  10   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            73  96  74  96 /  10   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           78  97  79  98 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  96  74  97 /  10   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             73  95  75  97 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  97  74  97 /  10   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   73  96  74  97 /  10   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  97  77  97 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           75  98  78  99 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...17
Aviation...05