Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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320 FXUS64 KEWX 170644 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 144 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, CLIMATE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 139 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 A blocky pattern aloft continues over the CONUS region. Shortwaves rotating through troughing over the western states, ridging over Mexico extending to over Texas to the Great Lakes, and the remnants of Francine over the eastern states absorbing the remnants of PTC 8. CAMs show a few very isolated showers possible from portions of the Hill Country to across the I-35 corridor to near the Coastal Plains this afternoon into early evening due to heating along a dissipating surface boundary. However, chances around 10 percent are too low to mention, at this time. The boundary is gone by Wednesday with no showers expected. Well above average, summer-like temperatures continue due to lower level thermal ridging. Some of our climate sites will approach record highs today the 17th of September. See CLIMATE section below for details. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 139 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Upper level ridging dominates the local area through the upcoming weekend. At the surface, a moist southerly flow is forecast to take control through the period with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s across the Hill Country to the mid and upper 70s along the I-35 corridor, Rio Grande and Coastal Plains areas. High temperatures are forecast to be above the normal climate values for several locations ranging from low to mid 90s and even near 100 across the southern part of the Rio Grande. Any shower activity from Wednesday night through Sunday morning is likely limited to the Coastal Plains. From Sunday morning into the afternoon, an upper level short wave trough is forecast to move across the Texas panhandle continuing into the central and eastern parts of the Central Plains. At the surface, a cold front stretches from the Central Plains southwestward into west Texas. The frontal boundary lingers to the northwest of South Central Texas through the period. There is a slight chance for showers across the southern Edwards Plateau on Sunday afternoon as an upper level disturbance pushes over that area. The work week begins with dry conditions for most areas with lows and highs closer to the normal values for the season. Beyond the extended forecast period: A stronger and deeper upper level short wave trough is forecast to push across South Central Texas on Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to push across the local area on Wednesday afternoon based on the GFS solution. The ECMWF keeps the frontal boundary to the north of the local area. Long story short, if the GFS solution is on track, then rain chances are possible with cooler temps mid to late next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 VFR flying conditions prevail overnight through Tuesday night. The exception could be a brief period of MVFR CIGs at KDRT early in the morning. Better chances for MVFR CIGs return early Wednesday morning. Light winds at 7 KTs or less, except 10 to 15 KTs at KDRT during the day on Tuesday. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 139 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Record High Temperatures Sep 17 Austin Bergstrom....99 (2005*) Austin Camp Mabry...99 (2021) Del Rio............103 (2021) San Antonio.........98 (1997) * denotes previous years && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 98 75 98 76 / 10 10 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 97 73 98 75 / 10 10 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 99 74 99 76 / 10 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 95 73 96 74 / 10 10 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 96 78 97 79 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 95 73 96 74 / 10 10 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 96 73 95 75 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 97 73 97 74 / 10 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 94 73 96 74 / 10 10 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 98 76 97 77 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 98 75 98 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...04 Long-Term...17 Aviation...04